🥜 1 Bitcoin

PLUS: Major milestone

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We're the crypto newsletter that's more electrifying than riding a light cycle in The Grid... 🏍️🌐 

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🏦 Here we go

  • ⏳ Time for 1 Bitcoin is nearly over

  • 🤔 Bullish signal

  • 💰 And more…

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MARKET WATCH ⚖️

market data

Prices as at 3:15am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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HERE WE GO 🏦

BREAKING: SEC Approves BNY Custody of Crypto Beyond ETFs

Bitcoin

Big news alert! 🚨

The SEC has just approved BNY Mellon’s crypto custody services. (going beyond just crypto ETFs)

This means that the bank can now hold wider range of crypto assets.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler made the announcement following a speech in front of the Fed of New York.

“Though the actual consultation related to two crypto assets, the structure itself was not dependent on what the crypto was, it didn’t matter what the crypto was.”

Gary Gensler

BNY recently presented plans to the SEC to custody these digital assets in a way that would protect customer funds in the event of bank insolvency.

The SEC granted BNY with a “non-objection” to the plan.

Which means they’ve been given the green light to go ahead with their plan.

FK tweet

Make no mistake this is BIG news.

BNY Mellon is one the largest and oldest financial institutions. As of 2024, BNY Mellon holds $49 trillion in assets under custody.

But here’s the thing that has everyone scratching their heads a little

This approval is an exception to the SAB 121 rule.

SAB 121 is a crypto rule that requires crypto custodians to list their customers assets as liabilities on their balance sheets.

This rule basically made it impossible for banks and other institutions to custody crypto for their clients.

And this rule doesn’t exist in the traditional finance world…

But it looks like things are changing now?

Perhaps this is in response to the grilling of Gary Gensler we saw the other day?

NG tweet

Who knows what made the SEC change their mind on SAB 121, or why they granted BNY Mellon an exception…

All we know is that this approval will speed up the pace of institutional adoption.

And it legitimises Bitcoin and crypto even further.

In unrelated news…

Yesterday we asked Crypto Nutshell readers who they think will win the US election.

And here are the results:

Poll results

Interesting results…

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TIME FOR 1 BITCOIN IS NEARLY OVER ⏳

The time for ordinary people to acquire 1 whole Bitcoin is coming to an end.

Now is your last chance.

That’s the message from on-chain Bitcoin analyst, Will Clemente.

wclemente1

In his latest update, Will broke down why Bitcoin is undergoing a transition.

It is going from being an early, wealth generating asset, to an asset that protects your wealth.

The time for every day people to acquire a whole Bitcoin is nearing its end. IMO after this cycle, unless you have a sizeable stack, it will be beyond the point of being an early, wealth generating asset, and will have fully transitioned into being one of wealth protection.”

Will Clemente

Will then broke down his prediction for when Bitcoin will hit $100,000 and then $1,000,000:

“Fed starts easing cycle w/ CPI at 2.5% & fine economy, Bitcoin rips to low 6 figs in mid-late ‘25, inflation picks up, sell-off as Fed panic hikes again but pivots into higher low of CPI, mkt realizes Fed has no control & inflation must run hot to service debt —> $1mm BTC by 2030

Will Clemente

A $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 implies a return of 84% per year. 🤯

Not bad…

We largely agree with Will.

Accumulating 1 whole Bitcoin already is a massive feat.

If everyday investors don’t own 1 whole Bitcoin by the end of this cycle, it may be forever out of reach.

It’s why we broke down why owning just 0.009 Bitcoin is actually a huge deal…

But we want to hear from Nutshell readers…

Do you own over 1 whole Bitcoin? 🤔

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

We will reveal findings in tomorrows newsletter!
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BULLISH SIGNAL 🤔

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges.

Nice and simple.

As a quick refresher, here’s how to interpret this metric:

  • Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂

  • Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

onchain

Currently there is 2,978,092 Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Which is only ~15.07% of the entire circulating supply.

And over the last 30 days, exchange balances have decreased by ~46,203 BTC. (~$3 billion at todays prices)

But here’s the thing…

When comparing percentages of supply on exchanges, Ethereum actually comes out on top:

  • Ethereum: 10.32% of the circulating supply

  • Bitcoin: 15.07% of the circulating supply

But there’s a good reason for this…

One unique benefit that Ethereum has over Bitcoin is staking.

And staking allows investors to earn yield on their Ethereum by “committing” ETH to the network. (this helps validate transactions and secure the network)

So it makes sense that there would be less Ethereum sitting on exchanges compared to Bitcoin. (there’s more incentives to move it off)

Regardless…

The exchange balances of Bitcoin and Ethereum are seriously low.

Which signals that investors have a preference for long-term holding. (withdrawing coins to cold storage)

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Analysts remain divided on Q4 outlook despite Bitcoin rally following rate cuts. Macroeconomic indicators prompt disconnected analysis from different analysts from the crypto industry over Bitcoin's future.

Mark Cuban says he wants Gary Gensler’s job as head of the SEC. Mark Cuban told Fox News that he would consider a position in Kamala Harris’ cabinet if the vice president were to win the 2024 US presidential election.

Bitcoin ETF Demand Grows Among U.S. Investors as China Considers Massive $142B Capital Injection. Data from SoSoValue shows that the total daily net inflow cracked $100 million for the second day in a row for the BTC ETFs.

Robinhood is mulling a potential stablecoin launch. Several trading firms, including Robinhood and Revolut, have reportedly been considering launching a native stablecoin.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news

  • Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

What does the term “HODL” mean in cryptocurrency slang?

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: D) Hold On for Dear Life 🥳

HODL stands for "Hold On for Dear Life" but it actually originated from a typo of "holding" as "hodling" in a 2013 online post.

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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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