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🥜 1 Million?
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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #582 openin’ floodgates… 🌊🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more intense than a street racer out to settle old scores at 200 mph... 🏁💨
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
💰️ The “new” SEC
🇺🇸 Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2029
💪 Not letting go
💰 And more…
Prices as at 2:40am ET
THE “NEW” SEC 💰️
BREAKING: SEC crypto task force roundtable debates future regulation of digital assets
Remember last year when the SEC under Gary Gensler was handing out lawsuits left, right, and centre?
Well those days are certainly behind us now…
On Friday, the SEC held its inaugural crypto task force roundtable (a new initiative since Gary Gensler left the agency in January 2025).
During the roundtable, the agency openly acknowledged the flaws in its prior "regulation by enforcement" approach and made it clear that big changes are coming.
A16z crypto General Counsel Miles Jennings put it bluntly:
"I don't think anyone could credibly argue the last administration's approach accomplished any of the SEC's objectives—investor protection, capital formation, or efficient markets. The current approach is clearly a failure, and we have to do better."
Gary Gensler, the former SEC Chair, was notorious for aggressively labelling most cryptocurrencies as securities.
Since his departure, the SEC appointed Commissioner Hester Peirce to lead its crypto task force.
At the roundtable, Peirce called this moment a clear:
"Restart of the Commission’s approach to crypto regulation."
However…
The core question still remains:
What actually makes something a security?
According to Rodrigo Seira of Cooley LLP, simply buying an asset with investment intent doesn't automatically make it a security. (The agency’s previous definition)
Seira compared it to purchasing artwork:
"Just because I bought art partly as a bet on the artist’s future doesn’t suddenly turn that transaction into a regulated securities transaction."
Not everyone agrees, though.
John Reed Stark (roundtable member and crypto skeptic) insists people buying crypto are clearly investors and require SEC protection.
However, Stark conceded regulations could be significantly improved.
And the new-look SEC isn't all talk…
So far, they’ve dropped numerous high-profile lawsuits against notable crypto firms, including:
Ripple Labs (XRP)
Coinbase
Kraken
Gemini
Robinhood
OpenSea
The crypto industry has been pushing for regulatory clarity for years…
And it looks like it's finally getting it. 😎
Read The Daily Upside. Stay Ahead of the Markets. Invest Smarter.
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BITCOIN WILL HIT $1 MILLION BY 2029 🔮
Forget today’s prices - Bitcoin is on track to hit $1 million by 2029.
That’s the latest prediction from Matt Hougan.
Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, one of the most respected crypto asset managers in the game.
In a fresh interview with Coin Stories, Matt laid it out:
“Bitcoin is well on its way to disrupting gold. That’s a $20 trillion market.
Add in international and cross-border transactions - another multi-trillion dollar market - and divide that by the number of Bitcoin…
At Bitwise, we think it’s going to cross $1 million by 2029.”
But how does it get there?
Matt lays out 3 key reasons behind his $1 million Bitcoin thesis:
Bitcoin is eating into gold's market share - and fast.
It’s become a viable tool for global transactions.
ETFs are hoarding BTC at a pace that far exceeds new supply.
“We're producing 160,000 Bitcoin a year… and ETFs are buying 500,000.
Something has to give. What gives is price resistance.”
Hougan also revealed how pension funds & institutional money are now moving in:
“Every pension fund should be allocated to Bitcoin… Many of them are already allocating, working with consultants. Crypto is now a $3 trillion market.
If you have 0% allocation, you’re effectively short.”
And here’s the kicker:
“When institutions put 1–2% into Bitcoin, that’s not overweight—that’s just getting to neutral.”
So, as the suits continue to dive in en masse, expect serious inflows.
As we said last week, Matt Hougan & Bitwise nailed their Bitcoin price predictions in 2024.
Now?
They think we’re heading to $200k this year & $1 million by 2029.
Fingers crossed. 🤞
NOT LETTING GO 💪
Let’s kick off the week with a checkin on the Bitcoin HODL waves! 🌊
Each coloured band shows the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within that time period.
As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (purple being the oldest, representing coins last moved more than 10 years ago).
As always, we’ll be focusing on long-term holders today. (coins held for more than 6 months)
Here’s the current breakdown compared to two weeks ago:
6m - 12m: 8.95% (down from 9.80%)
1y - 2y: 10.81% (up from 10.42%)
2y - 3y: 8.22% (up from 8.16%)
3y - 4y: 8.77% (down from 9.01%)
4y - 5y: 7.15% (up from 7.03%)
5y - 10y: 14.94% (up from 14.86%)
>10y: 9.20% (up from 9.18%)
TL;DR: 68.04% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in over six months.
But… that’s a 0.43% decrease from two weeks ago. 😢
Key takeaways:
The majority of this decline is still coming from the “youngest” long-term holders (Less than 1 year)
Older groups (Besides the 3y - 4y) continue to steadily grow
Overall, there are still no major signs of widespread selling - this remains a strong and healthy HODL trend.
Bottom line: Aside from some recent profit-taking among newer long-term holders, overall conviction remains as strong as ever.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Japan’s Open House to accept DOGE, SOL and XRP for real estate amid friendlier regulatory climate. This addition brings the total number of accepted digital currencies on the company’s platform to five
Bitcoin ‘in position’ for first key RSI breakout in 6 months at $85K. Bitcoin may still be “stuck” in the mid-$80,000 range, but the signs are there for the bull market breakout repeating itself.
Coinbase Could Be Near Multi-Billion Dollar Deal for Deribit. Consummation of an acquisition would greatly advance Coinbase's push into the crypto derivatives market.
Fidelity launches 'OnChain' Ethereum-tracked shares for Treasury money market fund. The asset management giant will issue shares of its Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund (FYHXX) that are recorded on the Ethereum blockchain.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Which public company currently holds the most Bitcoin? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: MicroStrategy 🥳
Strategy (Formerly MicroStrategy) currently holds 499,226 BTC.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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