GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #943 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more forecast-savvy than a storm chaser launching every sensor before the sky turns green… 🌪️📡

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin flat at $64,000 as stocks print records and Hormuz deal nears

Stock indexes printed records around the world this week, and crypto wasn't invited.

The S&P 500 and the Dow closed at all-time highs, MSCI's world index pushed toward another record close, the Asia Pacific benchmark added 2.2% and Australian shares hit a new peak.

Oil fell toward $78.50 on reports that Washington, Tehran and Oman are close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

That's cheaper energy and softer rate expectations on top of a global risk-on session.

Bitcoin's at $64,580, up 1% on the week and still 49% below its October record.

Normally that backdrop does the job on its own, so the drag isn't coming from macro.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $5.4 billion over the first half of the year while money chased anything with AI attached to it.

DWF Labs puts the lag down to investor interest cooling as AI takes a disproportionate share of the capital.

Tether's market cap has shrunk by $4 billion in 60 days, one of the steepest contractions on record.

Stablecoins are the cash parked inside crypto waiting to buy something, so when that pile shrinks, money is leaving the system rather than rotating inside it.

A record close on Wall Street doesn't refill it.

Last week an oil spike knocked Bitcoin back, on the logic that pricier crude leaves the Fed less room to cut.

Oil's fallen since and it hasn't moved either way…

The one bid still turning up belongs to people who already own plenty.

CryptoQuant has whale balances at 3.06 million bitcoin, up from 2.87 million at December's low, with the buying picking up when the price went under $60,000 in June.

Julio Moreno calls it "strong hands absorbing weak-hand supply" and reads it as a late-stage bear market, while warning prices can still fall before any bottom confirms.

Bitcoin has held above $52,900, the average price every coin last changed hands at, so its holders are collectively still ahead.

Ether at $1,907 is a long way under its own $2,450.

The backdrop is already as good as it's been all year.

The thing to watch now is that stablecoin pile, because it's the money that has to come back first.

Apple just secretly added Starlink satellite support to iPhones through iOS 18.3.

One of the biggest potential winners? Mode Mobile.

Mode’s EarnPhone already reaches 490M+ users that have earned over $1B, and that’s before global satellite coverage. With SpaceX eliminating "dead zones," Mode's earning technology can now reach billions more in unbanked and rural populations worldwide.

Their global expansion is perfectly timed, and investors like you still have a chance to invest in their pre-IPO offering at $0.52/share.

With their recent 32,481% revenue growth and newly reserved Nasdaq ticker, Mode is one step closer to a potential IPO.

Tap into a $1T opportunity — invest now at just $0.52/share and get up to 20% bonus.

^{Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering.}

^{Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.}

^{The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.}

On Strategy's Q2 earnings call, Michael Saylor put up a statistic that reframes every argument about MSTR.

Saylor is the Executive Chairman of Strategy, now the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin on earth.

The stat: measured across 495 rolling windows of four years or longer, MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin 100% of the time.

Shorter windows are a coin flip. One year gives an edge. Two years, 64%. Three years, 87%. Four years and beyond, it has never once lost.

The scale behind it is staggering. Strategy now holds 843,775 BTC, roughly 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. More than the largest ETFs. More than any nation state.

And the balance sheet got stronger through the drawdown. Long-term debt fell from $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion. The dollar reserve hit an all-time high of $3.75 billion, over two years of dividend coverage.

Saylor named five headwinds holding Bitcoin back: the AI capital buildout, trade tensions, the Gulf War, restrictive Fed policy, and delays on the CLARITY Act.

Meanwhile Bitcoin dominance sits above two thirds, and his bank adoption index has climbed from 9% to 32%.

The ambition hasn't shrunk either. Own the most capital. Issue the strongest credit.

Become the most valuable company in the world.

4 years or longer. Never lost yet. Not bad… 🏗️

Time for check in on Ethereum’s supply side dynamics.

To do that we’ll be focusing on the amount of Ethereum currently being staked.

Quick Note: Ethereum staking involves locking up ETH to support the blockchain’s security. In return, users earn rewards for staking.

If you’d like to learn more about staking, check out this article.

41.56 million ETH is now locked in staking. Up from 41.02 million two weeks ago.

Another leg higher, and staked ETH has cleared 41.5 million for the first time.

That's a 540,000 ETH jump this fortnight, and the climb hasn't broken stride all year.

Staking has been a one-way street, one increase stacked on the last, and this fortnight lands right on pace.

Since January, roughly 5 million ETH has flowed into staking contracts, supply deliberately pulled off the table to earn yield.

More than a third of all Ethereum now sits voluntarily locked, out of circulation and climbing regardless of price.

The tradeable float keeps shrinking, print after print. 💪

Ethereum Proposal Would Burn Staking Rewards to Zero if Half of ETH Is Staked. The draft would phase in reward burns and remove the incentive to stake beyond half of Ethereum’s supply.

Crypto firm RedotPay says it will defend itself ‘vigorously’ against Binance lawsuit. Binance alleges RedotPay diverted more than 470,000 card users and is seeking roughly $470 million.

Western Union brings stablecoin remittances to Visa network with Stablecard. Western Union is rolling Stablecard out across 37 markets for cross-border payments and dollar-denominated savings.

Kraken parent Payward shifts position on tokenized equities and voting rights. Eligible xStocks investors will be able to submit proxy-voting preferences after the products previously offered no voting rights.

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Trivia Answer: Activity is linked to addresses rather than automatically to verified real-world names 🥳

Bitcoin's ledger is public, but addresses do not inherently display a person's identity. Outside data can still connect an address to its owner.

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