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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #836 keepin’ cautious… 🚧🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more reckless than a getaway driver who just found out the job was a setup… 🚗💥

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Why Bitcoin Is on a Path to $1 Million Per Coin

Everyone is focused on how far Bitcoin has fallen. Bitwise is focused on how far it can go.

In a new memo this week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan laid out the path to $1 million per Bitcoin.

His framework is simple.

Bitcoin is an emerging store-of-value asset competing with gold. To estimate its price, you look at the size of that market, estimate Bitcoin's share, and divide by 21 million.

Today the store-of-value market sits at roughly $38 trillion - $36 trillion in gold, $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin.

That puts BTC at just under 4% of the total.

At that share, it would need to capture over 50% of the market to hit $1 million.

That sounds impossible. But here's what most people miss.

The market itself is growing fast.

When the first gold ETF launched in 2004, gold's total market cap was about $2.5 trillion. Not much more than Bitcoin's today.

Since then it has grown to nearly $40 trillion - a 13% compound annual growth rate over two decades.

If that pace continues, the store-of-value market could reach $121 trillion within ten years.

At that size, Bitcoin would only need 17% to be worth $1 million per coin.

And the building blocks are already falling into place.

A few years ago there were no US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Now they're the fastest-growing ETFs in history. Harvard's endowment holds Bitcoin. Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund holds over $1 billion in IBIT. Institutional allocations are shifting from 1% toward 5%.

Hougan is honest about the risks.

The store-of-value market may not keep growing at this pace. Gold could pull back. Bitcoin could fail to gain share.

But his base case is straightforward: if the market keeps growing as it has, and Bitcoin keeps gaining share as it has, the destination is much higher than where we are today. 🚀

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Michael Saylor doesn't think Bitcoin is competing with gold anymore. He thinks it's going to dwarf it.

Saylor is the co-founder and Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, the company that holds more Bitcoin than any other public corporation on earth.

He's staked his entire corporate treasury, his reputation, and billions of dollars on a single thesis:

Bitcoin will win.

And in his latest interview on Sky News Arabia, he laid out that thesis in the clearest terms yet:

His roadmap? Bitcoin grows from $2 trillion to $20 trillion to $200 trillion over the next 20 to 30 years.

That's not a 2x. That's not a 10x. That's a 100x from here.

And gold? The asset that's been the global store of value for thousands of years?

Think about what he's actually saying. Gold currently sits at roughly $20 trillion in market cap.

Saylor isn't saying Bitcoin catches up. He's saying Bitcoin laps it. Multiple times over.

The argument is simple. Gold is physical. It's slow. It can't move at the speed of the internet. Bitcoin can. And in a world that's going digital, capital will flow to the network that moves fastest, settles cheapest, and can't be debased.

Saylor has been saying this for years. The difference now is that governments, institutions, and sovereign wealth funds are starting to agree with him.

$2 trillion was the experiment. $200 trillion is the destination. 🚀

Today we’ll be taking a look the overall stablecoin supply.

Stablecoins are the backbone of crypto liquidity, used for seamless trading and instant cross-border transactions.

The chart below tracks the aggregate change in the total stablecoin market cap.

Two weeks ago, the total stablecoin supply sat at $263.76 billion.

Today it's $266.87 billion.

That's a $3.11 billion jump in just 14 days.

After weeks of flat or shrinking supply, capital is flowing back in. That's the first meaningful expansion we've seen since sentiment cratered.

Now zoom out…

Stablecoin supply is still down $1.06 billion year-to-date in 2026 - a hangover from the post-crash uncertainty. But that gap is closing fast.

Two more weeks like this and we're back in positive territory for the year.

The bigger picture hasn't changed. Stablecoin supply is still sitting near all-time highs. Capital never really left crypto - it just went quiet.

And now it's waking back up. 🔥

China’s Supreme Court lashes out against crypto criminals. China’s Supreme Court issued a warning in its annual work report on March 9. Courts will crack down on people who use virtual currencies to launder money or evade capital controls.

The $300 billion digital dollar boom could eat into traditional banks' profits, warn Jefferies analysts. Digital dollar use in payments and crypto markets may slowly pull deposits from banks, forcing lenders to seek pricier funding, a new report by Jeffries finds.

TD Cowen says Congress likely getting closer to permanently banning a Fed CBDC. The investment bank says such a move would benefit stablecoin issuers but could also create another obstacle for passing the Clarity Act.

Circle Stock Surges As Bernstein Sees Upside From Stablecoins. Circle stock has surged 49% in 2026 and doubled since February as Bernstein maintains a $190 price target, citing accelerating stablecoin adoption.

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Trivia Answer: The total value of assets deposited into DeFi protocols 🥳

TVL (Total Value Locked) tracks how much capital users have committed to DeFi protocols for lending, staking, liquidity provision, and other activities. It's one of the most widely used metrics for gauging the health and growth of the DeFi ecosystem.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.