GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #982 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more sure of its thesis than a barefoot fund manager drumming along to heavy metal while he bets against the entire housing market… 🥁📉

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin is on track to shatter a major decade-long streak as September gains surge

Every time Bitcoin has posted a green August since 2013, September has closed in the red, and this year looks set to be the first exception.

Bitcoin gained 25% in August and is up about 6% this month, trading around $83,000 with only hours of September left.

(September has closed red in eight of the previous 13 years per CoinGlass, hence the "Red September" curse.)

Bitcoin would need a late push before the month closes to beat 2024's 7.3%, the best September on record.

The run has left plenty of recent buyers holding paper gains.

CryptoQuant puts short-term holders' unrealized profit at 33%, a level that's come before profit-taking and local tops in the past.

(Short-term holders are wallets that bought in the last few months, which makes them the likeliest sellers into a rally.)

CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, warned that "without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend."

Fresh demand has slowed to a trickle, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in just $31 million on Monday, their eighth straight day of inflows but a sliver of the nearly $1 billion they pulled in the Monday before.

Bitcoin has also stalled well short of last week's $87,400 peak, and Moreno's first support if it slips is $80,000, where its 365-day moving average sits…

Bitcoin looks set to clear the curse with about 6% to spare.

Keeping that gain into October depends on new money turning up to buy whatever those short-term holders, sitting on 33% profits, decide to sell. 🚀

The next Apple may already exist. Insider sources say Elon has spent two years building a secret device inside Tesla's facilities — one he claims will be "10x bigger than the largest product in history."

There's just one problem: the company is private, and unless you know Elon personally, you can't buy a single share. That was true until Guardian's research team found three public ticker symbols sitting in the launch supply chain.

Click here to see all 3 tickers, free of charge.

You won't hear these names on CNBC — Wall Street hasn't published a word on the connection. But when the launch hits September 21, that quiet ends.

Some are already calling this the biggest opportunity since AI. For anyone who missed Apple before the iPhone, this may be a second look at that kind of setup.

Get the 3 ticker symbols here.

Unlock the free briefing now.

Will Clemente took some money off the table on Monday after spotting froth in altcoin futures.

Clemente is one of the most respected on-chain analysts in crypto and co-founder of Reflexivity Research.

Here's what he posted:

His red flag is altcoin open interest climbing relative to Bitcoin's.

(Open interest, or OI, is the total of futures bets still open, and most of those bets run on borrowed money.)

Bitcoin's own futures market has thinned out, with coin-denominated open interest at its lowest since March and almost 20% below its August level, per Glassnode.

While Bitcoin traders stepped back, leverage kept flowing into the smaller coins…

That usually means traders are reaching for bigger moves in thinner markets.

Those bets can unwind fast, because altcoin futures markets are shallow and a modest drop can set off a chain of liquidations (exchanges force-closing leveraged bets that no longer have enough collateral behind them).

Clemente trimmed some exposure but kept a sizable core Bitcoin position he's held since the $60,000s, where Bitcoin traded as recently as August.

A leveraged altcoin flush can knock prices over in an afternoon without changing the case for holding Bitcoin for years.

Keeping the two separate means a flush in one doesn't shake you out of the other.

When the froth builds in the alts, Clemente's move is to trim the edges and leave the core alone. 🫧

Today we're looking at BTC Risk, a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.488 (two weeks ago: 0.448)

After a fortnight standing still, the gauge is moving again.

BTC Risk rose 0.040 to 0.488, back in step with a Bitcoin price that climbed to around $84,000.

That's about half the pace of the two big climbs before the pause, which added 0.073 and 0.074.

Taken together, the last four updates have lifted the metric from 0.300 to 0.488 in two months.

It now sits just 0.012 below the 0.5 midpoint, historically neither cheap nor hot. 📈

Crypto regulation at SEC, CFTC to come down to 3 commissioners following key resignation. Hester Peirce leaves the SEC on Friday, leaving Paul Atkins and Mark Uyeda at the SEC and Michael Selig alone at the CFTC.

Cboe, S&P Dow Jones may explore tokenized options contracts under extended licensing deal. The 25-year extension runs through 2051 and covers S&P 500 index options, which traded a record 970.6 million contracts in 2025.

Bitwise Launches First US Spot Near ETF After Token Nearly Triples Since August. NRR trades on NYSE Arca with a 0.75% fee and plans to stake its NEAR for average rewards of about 5%.

Comer presses Crypto.com, Hyperliquid and PredictIt on identity checks and suspicious trades. House Oversight Chairman James Comer wants records on employee trades, officials' bets and a large Hyperliquid short opened before an October tariff announcement.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: The gap between the price you expect and the price your order actually fills at 🥳

It happens when the price moves or there isn't enough liquidity at your price, which is why big orders in thin markets often fill worse than quoted. Most DEXs let you set a slippage tolerance to cap it.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.