GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #771 chargin’ in… 🐘🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more unhinged than a clown-faced villain turning a city into his personal playground of chaos… 🃏🔥

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin and ether surge on eve of FOMC decision fueling wave of liquidations

Bitcoin briefly turned positive for the year on Tuesday, surging past $94,000 and dragging the entire market up with it.

ETH reclaimed $3,300 for the first time in a month.

SOL and DOGE jumped over 8%.

And over $260 million in short positions got liquidated in just four hours.

And the timing isn’t a coincidence…

This happened just one day before the Fed's December meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is almost fully priced in.

But here's the thing: the cut itself isn't the story.

Everyone already knows it's coming.

What matters is what Powell says about the path forward.

If he signals fewer cuts ahead, the odds of a Santa rally drop fast.

But analysts aren't calling this a bear market yet.

Kevin Hassett - ultra-dovish and likely Powell's replacement next year - could flip sentiment from depression to euphoria in early 2026.

Add in the Market Structure bill gaining momentum on Capitol Hill and growing institutional adoption, and the thesis hasn't broken. It's just delayed.

What's more interesting is the structure of the move.

For weeks, Bitcoin has bled during U.S. trading hours.

Tuesday flipped that script.

K33 Research noted positioning on derivatives markets was "deeply defensive" with investors bracing for more pain - exactly the kind of crowded short setup that snaps violently when sellers exhaust.

The Coinbase premium also turned positive over the past few days, signalling U.S. buyers are back.

The OCC also dropped a clarification on Tuesday: national banks can now engage in "riskless principal" crypto transactions, acting as intermediaries without holding inventory.

A small step, but another brick in the regulatory foundation.

So where does that leave us?

Bitcoin is back at $92,700 at the time of writing. The short squeeze added momentum, but the real question is whether this marks seller exhaustion or just another bounce in a structural reset.

The Fed decides tomorrow. Powell's tone will set the next leg. 🚀

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Tom Lee is one of the few Wall Street strategists who has been consistently right about crypto.

Not all of the time. But for the most part, he gets it correct.

He brings institutional discipline to a market that is usually driven by emotion.

And last week at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, the Chairman of Bitmine made a massive call…

His view?

The worst is over.

Here is the key line from his keynote:

But in crypto, talk is cheap.

Predictions are easy.

So Lee put his money where his mouth is.

In just 48 hours last week, his firm Bitmine executed a massive buy:

$200 Million in Ethereum.

Translation:

He doesn't just think the bottom is in. He is betting 9-figures on it.

While retail investors are worried about the next 5% drop... the veterans are looking at a 200x horizon.

The smart money isn't panic selling.

They are loading the boat. 🚢

Today we're looking at BTC Risk - a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.424

That puts us below the 0.5 line, on the low to mid risk side of the spectrum.

We are well below the spikes that marked prior blow off tops, and comfortably above the despair levels of deep bear markets.

In plain English:

If BTC Risk drifts lower, the signal gets more attractive for buyers.

If it grinds up toward 0.8+, that's when you start thinking about trimming, not topping up.

The CFTC just authorized Bitcoin, ETH, USDC only for US leverage, leaving XRP, SOL stranded in risky limbo. While BTC and ETH gain approval as collateral, XRP's exclusion highlights the selective approach in CFTC's digital assets pilot.

New ETF proposal bets Bitcoin returns are made after hours. A proposed ETF with indirect exposure to Bitcoin would only buy the cryptocurrency when US markets close and sell when they open.

Michael Saylor Takes Bitcoin (BTC) Pitch to Middle East. The executive chairman of Strategy pitched BTC-backed banking and yield products as a $200 trillion opportunity at the Bitcoin MENA conference.

Bitcoin treasury XXI shares sink 20% in NYSE debut despite rising BTC price. Twenty One wants to distinguish itself from pure bitcoin-holding firms by pushing into brokerage, credit, and other financial services.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: The total BTC locked in publicly visible Lightning channels 🥳

Lightning capacity reflects how much BTC is committed to public channels, hinting at the network’s usable liquidity. ⚡

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.