GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #833 lookin’ for alpha… 🔍🥜

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin bounced to $74K this week — but analysts can't agree on what comes next

Bitcoin ripped to $74,000 on Wednesday.

But by Thursday, it was already fading back below $71,000.

The rally was real. ETF inflows hit $1.1 billion in just three days.

The Coinbase Premium flipped positive for the first time since October - a sign that US buyers were stepping back in.

Spot demand contraction narrowed from -136,000 BTC at the start of the year to roughly -25,000 BTC.

Selling pressure from long-term holders dropped to its lowest level since June 2025.

That's a meaningful shift.

K33 Research said this week that "the worst is behind us," comparing current conditions to the FTX bottom in late 2022.

Prediction markets have flipped bullish - traders on Myriad now give Bitcoin 53% odds of hitting $84,000 before falling to $55,000.

A week ago, the bears were firmly in control.

The BTC-to-gold ratio is also flashing a signal. It's been falling for 13 months. In each of the last three cycles, the ratio bottomed at around 14 months - and each time, it coincided with a major price low.

But CryptoQuant isn't buying it…

Head of research Julio Moreno called this a "relief rally inside an ongoing bear market."

The firm's Bull Score Index sits at just 10 out of 100. If Bitcoin pushes higher, Moreno sees resistance at $79,000 and $90,000 - levels that capped rallies earlier this year.

Arthur Hayes put it more bluntly: "It could be a dead cat bounce."

The setup is genuinely split.

Flows are improving. Selling is slowing.

But the macro backdrop is still messy - oil is up over 5% this week, rate cut odds keep fading, and the Iran conflict shows no sign of ending.

Bitcoin is holding above $70,000 for now.

The question is whether this is the start of something… or just a pause before the next leg down.

So what do you think?

Let us know your thoughts in the poll below. 👇

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The best years of crypto are definitely ahead. That’s the latest out of Tom Lee.

As you know, Lee is the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, the world’s largest Ethereum treasury company.

He's been one of the most consistently accurate macro forecasters in the game, and one of the few traditional finance voices who has never wavered on crypto.

And in his latest CNBC interview, he laid out some stats that should stop every investor in their tracks:

Let that sink in. The entire Bitcoin market right now is being driven by a tiny fraction of the global investor base.

The vast majority of people who have the capital to buy Bitcoin haven't even started.

And with spot ETFs live, custody solutions expanding, and regulatory frameworks taking shape, the barriers that kept those 900 million accounts out of crypto are disappearing one by one.

Lee's conclusion? The best years for crypto are definitively ahead.

Not behind us. Not happening right now. Ahead.

This isn't about price predictions or cycle timing.

This is about the simplest math in investing: a massive pool of capital, a shrinking set of barriers, and an asset that 99% of eligible investors haven't allocated to yet.

4 million vs 900 million. The adoption wave hasn't even started. 🌊

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of wallets that hold at least some Bitcoin. (anything greater than 0)

This metric offers a bird’s-eye view of user activity and adoption across the Bitcoin network.

But there’s a slight catch…

One wallet does not equal one user. A user can have many wallets.

What matters here is the trend of the chart.

Here's a number that doesn't care about sentiment…

58,266,477 wallets now hold at least some Bitcoin. That's 125,901 new holders in just the last two weeks.

Think about what's happening here.

Markets are bleeding. Headlines are grim. Fear is running the show.

And yet more people are choosing to hold Bitcoin today than two weeks ago.

Every drawdown shakes out the weak. But the network keeps expanding underneath. New wallets opening. New participants entering.

The base getting wider and more resilient with each shakeout.

Price can stay ugly for a while. Adoption doesn't seem to care. 💪

SEC Moves to Settle Justin Sun Case With $10M Penalty for BitTorrent Owner. The judgment would resolve one of the agency’s highest-profile crypto enforcement actions and dismiss the remaining claims against Sun.

SEC Submits Proposal on Interpreting Crypto under Securities Laws. The CFTC and SEC submitted guidance on prediction markets and application of securities laws, respectively, to the White House this week as Congress considers market structure.

More crypto firms likely to get Fed master accounts and banks lack power to block approvals, TD Cowen says. Banks are expected to object and potentially pursue litigation, but TD Cowen argues they lack the power to stop such approvals.

U.S. banking agencies say capital should be same for standard or tokenized securities. The Federal Reserve and other banking regulators clarified that the capital tally in banks needs identical treatment whether securities are tokenized or not.

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Trivia Answer: ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF in 2021 🥳

BITO launched in October 2021 as the first US-approved Bitcoin ETF, but it tracked Bitcoin futures, not spot prices. The first US spot Bitcoin ETFs (including BlackRock's IBIT and the converted Grayscale GBTC) didn't arrive until January 2024, marking a much bigger moment for institutional adoption.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.