GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #834 clampin’ down… 🗜️🥜

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What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Oil just broke $100 for the first time since 2022 — and it's dragging everything down with it

Oil prices exploded over the weekend.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged above $107 a barrel. Brent crude hit $108. That's the highest oil has traded since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022.

The trigger: escalating strikes across the Middle East.

Israeli warplanes hit fuel storage depots and refineries in Tehran. Iran launched drone strikes targeting oil tankers and energy sites across the Gulf.

Iraq warned that roughly 3 million barrels per day of production could be disrupted as Iran threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - the corridor that handles one-fifth of global oil supply.

Bitcoin dropped 2% in 15 minutes when US futures opened Sunday. It's now sitting around $66,400 - down for four straight days after touching $74,000 mid-week.

Dow futures fell over 800 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures each dropped about 1.5%.

But Trump shrugged it off. "Oil prices will go up, which they will. They'll also come down very fast," he told reporters. "We've got a lot of oil."

But the damage is already spreading. Rising oil means rising inflation expectations. That pushes rate cuts further away. And that tightens conditions for every risk asset - including crypto.

Meanwhile, cracks are showing elsewhere…

BlackRock has reportedly started limiting withdrawals from its $26 billion private credit fund. Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion in loans last month to meet redemptions. Financial stress is widening beyond just crypto.

Here's the frustrating part.

This was supposed to be one of Bitcoin's best weeks in months. Morgan Stanley named custodians for its BTC ETF. Kraken gained Fed payment access. ICE invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation. In any prior cycle, those headlines would have sent the market flying.

Instead, macro swallowed all of it.

Short-term holders cashed out 27,000 BTC at a profit when Bitcoin hit $74K - roughly $1.8 billion sent to exchanges. The most reactive players took the exit.

Still, not everything is bearish underneath. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $787 million last week - the first positive week since mid-January. Funding rates have dropped to their lowest since 2023. The speculative excess has been flushed.

The infrastructure is being built. The institutions are arriving. But right now, oil and war are calling the shots.

Until the macro clears, the best news in crypto isn't enough. 🚀

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Raoul Pal just dropped the most comprehensive bull case for crypto he's ever written. In a single tweet.

Pal is a former Goldman Sachs macro trader and the founder of Real Vision. He tracks global liquidity the way most people track the weather.

And while the pure chartists are calling it over, Pal couldn't disagree more.

His starting point? The single most important number in macro:

Liquidity.

From there, Pal stacked catalyst on top of catalyst:

Meanwhile?

Raoul’s overall conclusion left no room for ambiguity:

The next 2 weeks will tell the story. 🚀

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 70.41% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

That's up from 69.36% two weeks ago. Over a full percentage point gained.

Fresh supply keeps crossing into long-term holder territory. The 6-12 month cohort jumped 0.69% as recent buyers aged past the six-month mark.

The 1-2 year band trimmed slightly while the 2-3 year group grew. Classic rotation - coins maturing up the ladder rather than hitting exchanges.

The 3-5 year cohort shed 0.21%, but the deeper bands caught it. The 7-10 year group climbed 0.16% and the 10+ year base hit 17.24% - another all-time high.

The 5-7 year band? Dead flat.

This is conviction hardening in real time. Supply locking up across every major band while short-term noise dominates the headlines.

Bottom line: the long-term base isn't just holding - it's growing. 💎

Bitcoin dip may not be over as whales sell into retail buying — a bearish signal. The divergence between large and small holders has historically preceded further downside, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropping to 12

Treasury tells Congress mixers have valid privacy uses, recommends 'hold law' for suspicious crypto. Treasury disclosed data showing that since May 2020, more than $1.6 billion in deposits from mixing services flowed into crypto bridges.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs post second straight weekly inflows for first time in 5 months. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second consecutive week of net inflows, ending a five-month outflow streak.

Kazakhstan's Central Bank Will Invest Up to $350 Million in Crypto Assets. Kazakhstan’s central bank has earmarked $350 million for crypto-related investments—and is set to deploy capital as early as next month.

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Trivia Answer: The Halving 🥳

Bitcoin's block reward is programmatically cut in half every 210,000 blocks (approximately four years). The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Halvings are a core part of Bitcoin's deflationary design.

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