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- 🥜 3 Reasons to be Bullish
🥜 3 Reasons to be Bullish
PLUS: Elon bull posting Bitcoin?
Today’s edition is brought to you by Linity
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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #393 wadin’ in... 🏊 🥜
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
👀 Laser eyes are back?
🤯 Three reasons to be bullish
💪 HODLer breakdown
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:15am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
LASER EYES ARE BACK? 👀
BREAKING: Elon Musk goes laser eyes after Biden quits re-election bid
If you were around last cycle and on Twitter, you would have surely seen the “laser eyes” before.
Basically, Bitcoin bulls were updating their profile pictures to images of them with lasers shooting out of their eyes.
To this day, Michael Saylor’s profile picture depicts him with these laser eyes.
But here’s the big news of the day…
Elon Musk just updated his Twitter account to feature these laser eyes.
But is this a sign of Musk’s support for Bitcoin?
Well the crypto community certainly thinks so.
According to Fox Business journalist, Eleanor Terrett, Elon’s jet made a trip to Tennessee.
And now the community is speculating that Elon will be attending Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville this week.
Even the Bitcoin 2024 conference organiser, David Bailey, teased an Elon announcement…
Funnily enough, David’s Twitter account was suspended shortly after Tweeting out the above.
So make of that what you will…
As it stands this all just speculation.
In all seriousness, Elon likely updated his profile picture in response to Joe Biden dropping out of the election.
Elon also recently publicly endorsed Donald Trump, so this would make sense.
And Elon hasn’t made any comments on Bitcoin recently, but it would be HUGE if he did end up attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
We’ll just have to wait and see now.
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3 REASONS TO BE BULLISH 🤯
Bitcoin’s biggest year has historically been the final year of the bull market.
Right now, we’re only 50% way through the cycle.
That’s the latest out from Fred Krueger.
In his latest update, Krueger gave 3 reasons why he’s extremely bullish for Bitcoin in the short-term.
(Krueger is also a believer in Bitcoin over the long-term, these are just reasons he sees for short-term price appreciation)
Let’s break them down:
1. Rate cuts
Fred believes a rate cut is coming in September.
And to be fair, Polymarket has a September rate cut at a 84% chance.
A September rate cut would signal the beginning of multiple rate cuts down the line.
Fred even mentions that if Trump wins the presidency, we can expect these rate cuts to come in much faster. Predicting that we could even be at 2% by the end of next year.
“High rates bad. We’ve rallied in spite of high rates over the last year. But I think if you start cutting rates, wow, that really accelerates things.”
Low interest rates have always been a boost for risky assets, including crypto.
FED Rate vs Total crypto market cap
2. Bull market cycle
Previous Bitcoin bull markets have lasted ~3 years.
And currently we’re only ~1.5 years into this bull market.
The final year of the bull market is also typically the biggest.
Here’s what Fred thinks will happen:
“I would say, to be conservative 2x. But it could be 4x, 6x, it could be some big number. There’s a lot of reason why, just from a bull market perspective, that we are in a very good position. And it’s not the time to take your chips off the table.”
The best way to summarise this point is with the chart below.
Previous Bitcoin cycles
Bitcoin’s price historically has gone absolutely banana’s in the final year of the bull market.
3. Michael Dell
This next reason is a bit of an odd one…
But we think it’s important.
Recently, Michael Dell has Tweeted about Bitcoin on a number of occasions.
Dell has been posting about Bitcoin on Twitter
Michael Dell is the 15th richest person in the world. (founder and CEO of Dell Technologies)
He has 20x the net worth of Michael Saylor. So a Bitcoin announcement from Michael Dell would be HUGE.
“The fact that he looks like he’s been orange pilled, is a lot to me. That’s a signal.”
But as it stands, no official announcement has been posted by Michael Dell.
That’s three reasons why Fred is extremely bullish on Bitcoin in the short-term.
To us it looks like the stars are aligning.
Now that we’ve moved past the German Government and the majority of the Mt. Gox FUD, what’s stopping Bitcoin from ripping? 😎
HODLER BREAKDOWN 💪
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Long / Short-Term Holder Threshold.
Here’s how this metric works:
🔴 Short-Term Holders (STHs): coins that have been held for less than 155 days
🔵 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): coins that have been held for more than 155 days
🟥 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are STHs
🟦 Long-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are LTHs
This metric is extremely powerful as we can see exactly what price STHs and LTHs purchased Bitcoin at. 🔎
The LTH / STH threshold is currently at 18th February 2024, back when Bitcoin was ~$52,100.
All coins purchased before this date are classified as LTHs.
All coins purchased after this date are classified as STHs.
Today there is currently 13,540,414 Bitcoin in the hands of LTHs. (68.63% of the circulating supply) 💪
Whereas the amount of coins held by STHs is only 3,177,991. (16.11% of the circulating supply)
During bull markets, the amount of long-term holders usually begins to decline.
This is due to long-term holders finally deciding to lock in profits. As a result, the amount of short-term holders increases. (coins become “young” again as they change hands)
And this was true up until Bitcoin first crossed $73,000…
But recently the amount of long-term holders has begun to increase. (slowly)
It looks like everyone is still holding out for higher prices.
Regardless, the amount of LTHs is still at an incredibly high level. 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Foreign crypto firms might be the only losers under a second Trump presidency. The crypto industry is holding its breath for a second Donald Trump presidency since the former president has vowed to end President Joe Biden’s ‘crusade against crypto.’
Germany already lost out on $124M profit selling its Bitcoin. The State of Saxony's hasty sale of 50,000 BTC, driven by fears of a price drop, resulted in a missed opportunity for $124 million in additional gains.
Kamala Harris Meme Coin Soars to All-Time High After Joe Biden Drops Out. Crypto traders are once again betting on the very serious business of presidential politics via very silly meme coins.
JPMorgan says crypto rebounds ahead unlikely to be sustained. JPMorgan analysts say that any rebound in crypto prices from this point is likely to be tactical rather than sustained.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What was Bitcoin's initial block reward? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) 50 Bitcoin 🥳
When Bitcoin first launched, the reward for mining Bitcoin was 50 BTC per block!
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