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- 🥜 4 Charts that show Bitcoin's future...
🥜 4 Charts that show Bitcoin's future...
PLUS: CZ Attacks Back
Together with
GM to all 21,324 of you. Crypto Nutshell #155 scuttlin’ in. 🦞 🥜
The crypto newsletter that's less dramatic than waking up as a mob boss managing a family and a criminal empire... 👔🚬
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🛩️ CZ pushes back
🔮 4 Charts that show Bitcoin’s future…
📈 Illiquid supply continues to grow
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:40am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
CZ PUSHES BACK 🛩️
Breaking: CZ’s lawyers push back against flight risk claims, file opposing motion
Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao, former CEO of Binance, is contesting the US Department of Justice (DOJ). The DOJ has motioned to restrict CZ’s travel before sentencing, preventing him from leaving the US.
CZ and his legal team have claimed that he doesn’t pose a flight risk and wishes to return home to his family in the UAE.
CZ’s legal team highlighted US Magistrate Judge Brian A. Tsuchida’s previous decision to grant bail and permit CZ to return to the UAE.
“As Judge Tsuchida concluded, based on a complete record, [that] Mr. Zhao presents no risk of flight, having voluntarily come before the Court to accept responsibility and plead guilty, and the government’s motion should be denied.”
CZ’s legal team also noted that fleeing makes no sense:
“To flee would be to risk additional charges, a likely much greater potential Guidelines range, and a host of other grave consequences to Mr. Zhao and Binance… To return, however, would be to potentially serve a brief or possibly no prison term and then return to his family with this matter behind him.”
A judge will soon rule on whether Zhao can await his fate from his home base in the UAE or must stay grounded on US soil. 🧑⚖️
Anyone else getting déjà vu from last year with SBF and FTX? 👀
For the full article click here.
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4 CHARTS TO SHOW BITCOIN’S FUTURE 🔮
Are you still on the fence as to which direction Bitcoin is going?
Since you’re a subscriber to the Crypto Nutshell - we’d hope not.
But in case you’re not convinced, we’ve got 4 charts to change your mind.
These chart’s were compiled by on-chain analyst - Will Clemente.
We’d argue they’re almost as good as staring into a crystal ball. 🔮
Let’s dive in.
Chart 1 shows debt as a % of GDP, projected out to 2053.
It illustrates the exponential debt spiral the U.S is facing. It’s only going to get exponentially worse.
Chart 2 shows deficit spending as a % of GDP, again projected out to 2053.
It shows how interest repayments on government debt is going to spiral out of control.
The insane thing about both charts 1 & 2?
They were issued by the U.S Government.
Meaning the projections are most likely conservative…
Chart 3 shows Bitcoin supply issuance since inception.
The large drops occur at the Bitcoin halvings, where issuance is cut by 50%.
As a reminder, the next Bitcoin halving is now only 144 days away.
Chart 4 ties everything together.
It shows the % year on year change of Bitcoin’s price in white. The % year on year change of Global M2 is in blue.
M2 is essentially the total money supply around the world. 🌎
Chart 1 makes the picture clear. Debt is going to exponentially increase.
Chart 2 shows that to afford interest repayments on debt, the government will be forced into increased spending. This will push the global money supply (M2) upwards.
Chart 4 shows us that the Bitcoin price tracks the change in global money supply.
Chart 3 shows this is all unfolding at the same time that Bitcoin’s supply issuance is cut in half.
Bottom Line: Anything can happen to prices on short time frames. But on long time frames?
The writing is on the wall. 🔮
ILLIQUID SUPPLY CONTINUES TO GROW 📈
Yesterday we looked at Bitcoin’s growing illiquid supply. (checkout that breakdown here)
Today we’ll be going one step further and looking at the Illiquid Supply Monthly Change.
🟩 Inflows: coins are moving from liquid to illiquid wallets. Net accumulation by investors
🟥 Outflows: coins are moving from illiquid to liquid wallets. Usually occurs when investors are cashing in profits or market panic.
Taking a look at the chart below. You’ll notice two large red spikes in June 2021 and May 2022.
June 2021 was a major selloff as investors began to take profits, sending coins back to exchanges (Bitcoin reached a new high).
May 2022 was when Luna collapsed which caused mass panic within the market.
Interestingly the collapse of FTX (November 2022) was the inverse of what we would usually expect. We actually saw a massive increase in the illiquid supply.
This was due to the risk actually being exchanges themselves. HODLers began to wisen up and opt for self custody.
Today, ~71,000 Bitcoin are being transferred to illiquid wallets per month.
2023 has seen an increasing preference for long-term holding. And we expect this to continue into 2024 with the upcoming halving and etf approvals.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
How many new Bitcoin are issued every 10 minutes?
A) 12.5
B) 50
C) 6.25
D) 3.125
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) 6.25 🥳
Currently, each block reward is 6.25 BTC. This will change to 3.125 BTC with the 2024 halving.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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