GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #905 rollin‘ on in…🎲🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more forensic than a mortgage analyst reading the footnotes before the whole tower starts leaning… 🧾🏦

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Profit-taking across bitcoin, ether, solana as traders wait on the Iran signing

Bitcoin's waiting on a signature.

BTC is holding around $66K, oil pressure has eased further, and traders finally have a reason to stop treating last week's dip near $59K as the start of something worse.

But the rally still has an asterisk next to it…

The US-Iran deal is real now.

Trump declared it "complete" over the weekend, ordered the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and US crude dropped more than 4% to around $80, its lowest since the war began. (Let the oil flow, apparently…)

The catch? It isn't signed yet.

The formal signing is set for Friday in Switzerland, so the market's trading the headline while it waits on the ink.

Bitcoin isn't crashing. It isn't euphoric either. It's parked in that awkward middle where everyone can see the bullish path but still wants proof before chasing it.

The ETF data says the same thing.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled about $64.8M on Monday, with BlackRock's IBIT pulling in roughly $66.4M while Grayscale's GBTC shed around $124M. The institutional bid hasn't fully snapped back yet.

And still, BTC is holding the mid-$60Ks. This rebound's happening before every signal has turned green.

Tom Lee piled onto the mood too. His firm BitMine scooped up another 76,881 ETH this past week, and he brushed off the drop as out of step with Ethereum's fundamentals.

His phrase for it: the "early stages of crypto spring." (Funny, that's the second analyst this week to reach for the spring metaphor…)

Bitcoin still has to clear its next test, though.

$67K is the level that matters. Push through it convincingly and this relief bounce starts to look like a real trend. Stall there, and a slide back below $59K would throw the bottom call into doubt.

For now, the market has shifted from panic to patience.

Everything bulls want is lined up. The deal, the cooling oil, the buyers stepping in.

The pen's just still hovering over the page. 🚀

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When the CIO of a $15 billion crypto firm does 40 advisor calls in a single day, the takeaways are worth reading. Matt Hougan just shared exactly what he heard.

Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. In his latest CIO Memo, he revealed he did eight sales calls with financial advisors in one day, the most since he joined Bitwise eight years ago, speaking with over 40 advisors. He walked away with two key insights.

First: advisors are still interested in crypto.

This is the part that matters most. Hougan points out that every bull market is dragged out of winter by new investors entering the space. The first retail wave in 2014. COVID stimulus investors in 2018. Mass retail and hedge funds after FTX.

His view? The next wave is financial advisors and institutions — a group that collectively manages over $175 trillion. The fact that they're still leaning in despite the drawdown is enormously bullish.

Second: their eyes are on stablecoins and tokenization more than Bitcoin.

This was the surprise. In call after call, advisors were more curious about the real-world applications of crypto than about Bitcoin itself.

Why?

2 reasons. The fiat debasement trade has cooled - gold is down 20% from its high. And at the same time, you can't turn on CNBC without hearing the SEC Chair, Goldman's CEO, or Larry Fink talking about stablecoins and tokenization.

So where does the money flow first? Hougan named the beneficiaries directly: Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, Avalanche, Canton. Next-gen tokens like Hyperliquid. And crypto equities like Circle, Figure, and Coinbase.

Hougan still thinks Bitcoin at $60k is incredibly attractive for long-term investors. But the marginal buyer's attention has shifted.

The biggest pool of capital on earth is leaning in.

And that might be exactly what leads us into the next bull market. 🧭

Bitcoin just ripped higher - up nearly 6% on the week, clawing back from the low-$60,000s to around $66.5K.

So… is the bottom in?

Maybe. But before anyone celebrates, the on-chain structure hasn't confirmed it yet.

Let’s start with Short-Term Holder MVRV. It measures what recent buyers' coins are worth against the average price they paid - their break-even line. At 1.0, the typical recent buyer is flat. Below it, they're underwater.

That reading bled into the 0.75-0.80 zone during the lows - the average coin bought in recent months sitting at a loss. Historically, this is exactly the band where weak hands get flushed and durable floors form. Every prior tag of this zone came right before a local bottom.

But here's the thing: even after this week's bounce, price is still parked below recent buyers' ~$75K break-even.

So MVRV is still under 1.0. And each rally since 2024 has printed a lower MVRV high and low - that descending channel says demand momentum keeps fading, even as the metric screams oversold.

aSOPR backs up the behaviour. This metric tracks whether the coins being spent move at a profit (above 1.0) or a loss (below 1.0). The 7-day average has been pressing the ~0.96 line - the same support that's marked every major seller-exhaustion event since 2019. Below 1.0, holders are still selling into pain… the setup that tends to come right before a reversal, once the selling base is finally spent.

So where does that leave this week's rally?

Encouraging - but not the whole story. The real signal needs double confirmation: aSOPR's 7-day average reclaiming 1.0 and holding it for several sessions, and STH MVRV turning back up through 1.0 toward its realized price.

We've got the price bounce now.

It's necessary… but on its own, not enough.

Until both metrics flip, this is an oversold market catching its breath - not a confirmed regime change. 📊

Someone Just Lost $1 Million on Polymarket Over Spain World Cup Shocker. One trader lost $1M betting Spain would win, while another bought “No” at 9 cents and walked away with $4.3M.

Trump-linked stablecoin used for bonus payouts at White House UFC contest. UFC Freedom 250 paid fighter bonuses in USD1, the stablecoin issued by the Trump-linked World Liberty Financial project.

Trump crypto company's USD1 stablecoins backing UFC event bonuses. The stablecoin bonus story drew political criticism because of the overlap between a Trump-linked crypto venture and a White House event.

Spot HYPE ETFs near $900 million in volume as early demand signals institutional interest. Volume across the three spot HYPE ETF products has been uneven, but early demand suggests institutions are testing exposure beyond BTC and ETH.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: The computing power being used to secure and mine the network 🥳

Hash rate is a rough measure of how much computation miners are pointing at a proof-of-work network. Higher hash rate usually means it would take more resources to attack or reorganise the chain.

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