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- 🥜 40,000 or 90,000?
🥜 40,000 or 90,000?
PLUS: Mt. Gox, remember that?
Together with
GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #460 scootin’ in… 🛴 🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more magical than dancing with enchanted furniture in a castle... 🌹🏰
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Future FUD
🥸 $40,000 or $90,000?
📈 What happens after the election?
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:00am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
FUTURE FUD 🏦
BREAKING: Mt. Gox pushes repayment plan deadline to October 2025
Remember back a few months ago when the Mt. Gox repayments were being made?
There was widespread fear around massive sell-offs flooding the market. (These sell-offs never actually happened, however the price of Bitcoin did react negatively)
Well, Mt. Gox still holds 44,900 BTC that needs to be repaid to customers…
(That’s ~$2.82 billion at todays prices)
Mt. Gox holding in USD
But, they’ve made a slight change to their repayment plan.
Originally, funds were supposed to be returned to customers by October 2024.
However, now that deadline has been shifted to October 2025.
Mt. Gox put out the following statement:
"As it is desirable to make the Repayments to such rehabilitation creditors to the extent reasonably practicable, the Rehabilitation Trustee, with the permission of the court, has changed the deadline for the Repayments from October 31, 2024 (Japan Standard Time) to October 31, 2025 (Japan Standard Time)."
Continuing on, Mt. Gox explains:
"Many rehabilitation creditors still have not received their Repayments because they have not completed the necessary procedures… A considerable number of rehabilitation creditors have not received their Repayments due to various reasons, such as issues arising during the Repayments process."
And while it does suck for the customers who have to wait even longer to get their Bitcoin back…
It does remove some sell-off FUD from Bitcoin’s immediate future…
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$40,000 OR $90,000? 🥸
Bernstein is a private wealth management firm with $646 billion under management.
They only provide financial advice to ultra high net worth investors. They just released a report on Bitcoin. It predicts 2 paths:
Bitcoin hits $40,000 by end of year.
or
Bitcoin hits $80,000 by end of year.
And it all depends on November 5th. 🇺🇸
You already know…
Berstein believes whether Bitcoin goes to $40,000 or $90,000 depends on who wins the U.S election.
Bernstein analysts, led by Managing Director and Senior Analyst Gautam Chhugani, predict the following in the event of a Trump win:
“We anticipate that bitcoin could touch $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump secures the presidency.”
If Kamala wins:
“However, if Harris wins, there’s a risk of bitcoin testing the lower end of the $40,000 range in the near term, reflecting concerns over regulatory tightening.”
The prediction reflects one made earlier this week by mathematician Fred Krueger.
He believes Bitcoin immediately goes to $100,000 if Trump wins:
The good news for Bitcoiners?
On prediction markets, day by day, Trump’s odds are increasing:
In other news…
Anyone else sick & tired of the election? 😂
We sure are.
Only 23 more days until we (and the markets) can move on… 🍾
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE ELECTION? 📈
But since we’re on the topic of the election… (again)
Why don’t we look at some charts to see what actually happens to Bitcoin post-election?
Bitwise’s head of research, André Dragosch recently published a report titled:
How to trade the US election with cryptoassets?
And in that report were some very interesting charts/takeaways. (Give the full report a read here)
First up, the chart below shows Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well following past US elections:
🟢 2012 election
⚫️ 2016 election
🔵 2020 election
🔴 Average
Regardless of the winning party, Bitcoin performs well post-election.
But…
It’s worth highlighting the diminishing returns over each of those past election cycles.
(The 2020 election saw a lower overall return compared to the previous 2016 election)
It’s also worth pointing out that this is the first presidential election where crypto has been a part of the actual discussion.
Which is why many analysts believe a Trump victory would be hugely bullish for crypto.
Andre even analysed how the price of Bitcoin responds to changes in betting odds between Trump and Harris (Taking the average of Polymarket & PredictIt)
And his takeaway is an interesting one…
“If the US elections were held today, a Trump win would imply a hypothetical performance of approximately +10.7% for Bitcoin (BTC) while a Harris win would imply a performance of around -10.5%, based on historical sensitivities of bitcoin's performance to these relative betting odds.”
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Bitcoin on track for longest flat market in halving year history. Bitcoin struggles to start a significant parabolic upward movement in a new 'accelerated' post-halving bull run.
Bipartisan support for crypto is ‘fragile’ — Congressman John Curtis. 71 Democrats joined their Republican colleagues in a rare bipartisan effort to repeal the SEC’s SAB-121 guidelines from earlier this year.
MicroStrategy Soars to 25-Year High, With 'NAV Premium' the Widest Since 2021. The stock has gained 4% since bitcoin hit an all-time high in March, while bitcoin itself has declined 16%.
Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen donates $1 million in crypto to PAC supporting Kamala Harris' campaign. According to Federal Election Commission filings, Larsen made that $1 million donation on Aug. 14.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When did FTX file for bankruptcy? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) November 2022 🥳
FTX was a leading cryptocurrency exchange that went bankrupt in November 2022.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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