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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #491 lockin’ in… 🔒🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more heartwarming than a robot learning what it means to be human... 🤖❤️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🏦 Here’s what Trump will change

• 🤦‍♂️ Every Bitcoiner’s regret...

• 💪 They barely budged

• 💰 And more…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

HERE’S WHAT TRUMP WILL CHANGE 🏦 

BREAKING: JPMorgan eyes six potential crypto market changes under Trump

The entire crypto market has been on rampage since Trump won the US election.

In case you didn’t know, the Republican party also won majorities in both the House and the Senate.

Meaning there’s a good chance pro-crypto regulations makes it all the way through congress.

Analysts at JPMorgan recently released a report on 5 key changes they see taking place under a Trump administration.

Let’s break them down:

1. Advancement of pending crypto legislation

JPMorgan expects several stalled crypto bills to see quick approvals once Trump takes over.

This includes the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21).

This bill passing congress would be huge for the industry as it would provide the much needed regulatory clarity.

Under FIT21, the CFTC would regulate digital assets considered commodities, while the SEC would oversee those classified as securities.

2. Shift toward cooperative crypto regulation

Once FIT21 is passed, the regulation by enforcement from the SEC will stop.

JPMorgan predicts that lawsuits against industry giants such as Coinbase will likely be softened, settled or even dropped.

3. Increase bank participation in crypto custody

JPMorgan also expects the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 (SAB 121) to be repealed.

SAB 121 requires custodians to record customer crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets.

This contradicts a basic rule of bank custody: Bank custodial assets are not included on the bank’s balance sheet.

(Also this rule is unique to crypto and doesn’t apply to traditional assets)

As a result, banks have stayed on the sidelines when it comes to custody of digital assets.

As a side note, congress voted to repeal SAB 121 back in May of this year.

But…

Joe Biden decided to veto this decision.

4. Momentum for spot ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum

A more favourable regulatory environment for crypto also means we’ll likely see more crypto ETFs.

This includes ETFs for Solana, XRP, and maybe even memecoins such as Dogecoin…

We’d also likely see multi-token ETFs be approved such as Bitwise’s 10 Crypto Index Fund.

5. Low probability of US Bitcoin Reserve

Trump’s juiciest proposed policy is establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

If this bill passed, the US would acquire up to 1 million BTC over a five year period. (~$90 billion at current prices)

And whilst this would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin, JPMorgan analysts think it has a low probability of happening.

Polymarket is also showing a 26% that the US will create a national Bitcoin reserve.

But if it does happen…

Expect to see the craziest bull run ever…

So what do you guys think?

Will the US ever create a national Bitcoin reserve?

Let us know your thoughts in the poll below. 👇️

New Decentraland desktop client for Mac and Windows

• Enhanced avatars and social interactions

• Improved performance and upgraded environments

• New features: badges, daily quests, and mini-games

Download Decentraland, a virtual social world, to start exploring to start exploring.

EVERY BITCOINER'S REGRET… 🤦‍♂️

There’s one regret that every Bitcoiner has:

Selling your Bitcoin.

That’s the latest message out from billionaire, Chamath Palihapitiya.

Chamath Palihapitiya is an O.G when it comes to Bitcoin.

He first began investing in Bitcoin when it was just $80 per coin. At one point, he owned over 5% of the entire Bitcoin supply. 😳

In his latest All-In podcast, he revealed that he has only 1 regret when it comes to Bitcoin:

Selling.

Although Chamath was an extremely early investor in Bitcoin, along the way he sold off some of his holdings.

He estimates this was a $3-$4 billion dollar mistake:

Chamath also famously bought some land in Lake Tahoe in 2014. He paid for the land with 2,739 Bitcoin.

At the time, that Bitcoin was worth $1.6 million dollars.

Today?

That Bitcoin is worth $251 million dollars. 🤯

All this regret, simply because Chamath didn’t follow Michael Saylor’s 20th rule of Bitcoin:

You do not sell your Bitcoin.

It’s a mistake every Bitcoiner makes along the way.

You might not regret it today, and perhaps not tomorrow, but at some point, you will regret selling your Bitcoin.

Something to keep in mind. 🧠

THEY BARELY BUDGED 💪

Let’s kick off the week with a checkin on the Bitcoin HODL waves! 🌊 

Each coloured band shows the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within that time period.

As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (purple being the oldest, representing coins last moved more than 10 years ago).

And whilst this metric can be used to analyse the amount of short-term holders…

We’ll be focusing on the long-term holders today. (coins held for more than 6 months)

Here’s the breakdown:

• 6m - 12m: 12.52%

• 1y - 2y: 9.73%

• 2y - 3y: 7.78%

• 3y - 5y: 15.33%

• 5y - 7y: 8.09%

• 7y - 10y: 6.08%

• >10y: 16.81%

That means that ~76.34% of the Bitcoin supply has NOT moved in over 6 months.

Which is kind of crazy considering the ridiculous price action we’ve seen over the last two weeks.

It’s worth pointing out that this metric did experience a decrease of 2.14% during these two weeks.

However…

The majority of this decrease came from the 6m - 12m age band.

Which is completely normal and what we would expect to happen when Bitcoin sets new highs on the daily.

It’s also worth pointing out that age bands greater than 2 years barely budged.

Meaning longer-term holders are clearly holding out for higher prices.

And $100,000 might just be around the corner…

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

SEC chair Gary Gensler’s behavior cannot be chalked off as ‘good faith mistakes,’ says Tyler Winklevoss. Winklevoss believes that Gary Gensler should never be allowed to hold any position of influence to prevent future misuse of government power.

XRP Sees Record Futures Bets Amid Price Surge Above $1.20. An increase in both OI and prices typically indicates that new money is entering the market — indicative of a bullish trend.

'I put most of my wealth into Bitcoin, so I am fully committed' — RFK. RFK Jr. has been a longtime Bitcoin advocate, praising its power to transmute currency inflation as US government debt tops $36 trillion.

Spot bitcoin ETF options are one step closer to going live. A new staff advisory from the CFTC represents another step towards options trading going live on U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to analysts.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

• Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news

• Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A) BlackRock 🥳

BlackRock’s IBIT currently holds 471,320 BTC

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HOW DID WE DO? 🤷

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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.