- Crypto Nutshell
- Posts
- 🥜 5 Things That Matter
🥜 5 Things That Matter
PLUS: US Election
Today’s edition is brought to you by eToro
GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #481 feelin’ electric… ⚡🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more enchanting than a young girl’s journey through a world of whimsical spirits... 🎋🌌
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 It’s all about the election
🔑 The 5 things that matter
🌊 HODL Waves
💰 And more…
Prices as at 3:10am ET
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE ELECTION 🏦
BREAKING: Bitcoin price falls as traders brace for election
It’s almost time…
Tuesday November 5th is the US Presidential election.
The outcome is set to have major repercussions for both Bitcoin and crypto.
Despite Bitcoin coming within touching distance of a new all-time high…
It’s been in a mini downtrend for the last couple of days.
In fact, If you compare Trump’s odds of victory on Polymarket, to the price of Bitcoin…
It’s almost a perfect mirror…
Why has the price of Bitcoin become correlated with the odds of Trump winning the election?
Well that’s simple…
Throughout both of their campaigns, Trump has expressed more pro-crypto policies compared to Harris.
The current Democrat administration has also proven themselves to be anti-crypto. (No one in crypto is a fan of Gary Gensler’s SEC)
So this is how the market is interpreting the US election:
Trump Win: Bitcoin shoots up 📈
Harris Win: Bitcoin crashes 📉
But that’s only the case in the short-term…
At the end of the day, Bitcoin doesn’t care which party wins the US election.
Check out the chart below:
After the US election (vertical red lines on the chart above), Bitcoin always shoots up eventually.
It happened when Trump won in 2016.
And it happened when Biden won in 2020.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who wins.
The market just needs certainty.
BUILD YOUR CRYPTO PORTFOLIO 🤑
Trading cryptocurrency can be overwhelming.
With thousands of coins and various platforms to navigate, it's easy to feel lost.
But if you want to simplify the process, eToro has your back.
With eToro you can:
Trading Insights - Follow each coin’s trends with advanced charts and analysis tools 🔍
Invest - Easily purchase leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash 🤝
Education - Get access to free courses and webinars at eToro Academy, along with advanced charting tools to gain new insights and make informed trading decisions. 📚
Anyone ranging from a beginner to expert can take advantage of eToro’s comprehensive crypto trading experience.
THE ONLY 5 THINGS THAT MATTER 🔑
Right now, there’s only 5 things that matter to Bitcoin.
Nothing else is important.
That’s the latest out from mathematician, Fred Kruger.
1. We are Only ~2% Under All-Time Highs
Right now Bitcoin is trading at ~$69,000. Only ~2% under all-time highs.
It’s up 66% for the year. Gold is up only 33%
By any measure, Bitcoin has had a phenomenal year.
Although it may not feel like it right now, Bitcoin is crushing despite the uncertainty of the election.
“Number 1 is: price action is great.”
2. Trump Is Still Up 10% In Prediction Markets
Trump is up +10% in prediction markets:
Now up +15% at time of writing
Regardless of your political views, a Trump win is by far more bullish for Bitcoin. (As we explained earlier)
Expect to see new all-time highs if he does pull off the win.
3. 2025 Will Be A Year Of Rate Cuts
We are heading into a year of rate cuts.
This Thursday the FED is going to cut by at least 25bps.
There will be more cuts in 2025. As money becomes cheaper, it finds its way further out onto the risk curve.
This means Bitcoin & crypto.
“We’re going into a cycle of rate cuts globally. This is massively bullish.”
4. Debt Situation Is Out Of Control
The debt situation is the U.S is completely out of control:
“We’re spending more on interest payments than we are on defence spending.”
The U.S cannot keep this up, they must continue to cut interest rates to afford interest repayments on debt.
Lower interest rates + more money printing = higher Bitcoin price.
5. We Are Entering Year 3 Of The Bitcoin Bull Market
We are now entering year 3 of the Bitcoin bull market.
This is the year that historically sees the majority of gains for Bitcoin.
However, Krueger also believes there’s a good chance we see this extended by multiple years:
“I think there’s a really good case to be made for why this extended bull market might continue on beyond 3 years. It might go to 4, 5, 6 years.”
Finally, Krueger gave his final prediction for what he believes will happen following the election:
“I think Trump’s going to win. I think if he wins we’re going to immediately go up to about $80,000. But I think in any case, getting through this election will be positive.”
Regardless of what happens, we will soon know the outcome of the election and markets will be free to run. 🐎
HODL WAVES 🌊
Let’s kick off the week with a checkin on the Bitcoin HODL waves! 🌊
Each coloured band shows the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within that time period.
As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (purple being the oldest, representing coins last moved more than 10 years ago).
And whilst this metric can be used to analyse the amount of short-term holders…
We’ll be focusing on the long-term holders today. (coins held for more than 6 months)
Here’s the breakdown:
6m - 12m: 14.05%
1y - 2y: 10.98%
2y - 3y: 7.00%
3y - 5y: 15.41%
5y - 7y: 8.34%
7y - 10y: 5.89%
>10y: 16.81%
That means that ~78.48% of the Bitcoin supply has NOT moved in over 6 months.
But compared to two weeks ago, this metric actually experienced a minor decrease. (0.43%)
However…
This decrease largely came from the younger age bands (coins held for less than 2 years).
And that makes perfect sense, as Bitcoin was within $200 of setting a new all-time high last week.
Remember: The younger the age band, the more sensitive they are to sudden price movements
Interestingly, the two oldest age bands both saw minor increases compared to two weeks ago.
Once people truly understand Bitcoin, it takes a lot for them to sell their coins…
And the price is nowhere near those levels for them yet. 🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive to integrate Bitcoin as hedge against long-term economic risks. Co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, Strive's new division aims to offer financial independence by incorporating Bitcoin into client portfolios.
Bitcoin Pulls Under $68K as Crypto Markets Falter Ahead of Election. At least according to betting markets, the U.S. presidential election has moved to nearly a 50/50 race versus the outlook for an easy Trump victory just days ago.
Crypto projects set to unlock $2.6B in tokens in November. The most noteworthy token unlocks in November include Memecoin, Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche and Optimism.
Crypto casino Metawin loses $4 million to exploit of Ethereum, Solana hot wallets. Metawin has restored access, backfilled the stolen funds, and contacted law enforcement, according to its CEO.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news
Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is the ticker for VanEck's Bitcoin ETF? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) HODL 🥳
VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF trades under the ticker HODL
GET IN FRONT OF 64,000+ CRYPTO INVESTORS
Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.
HOW DID WE DO? 🤷
We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)
What did you think of today's Newsletter?Don't worry, you won't hurt our feelings... 🥲 |
NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
*Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more
Reply