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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #723 lightin’ the way… 🔦🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more nerve-wracking than a young lawyer discovering his firm is hiding deadly secrets... 📑⚖️
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🤑 It’s go time
🌀 The 4-year cycle is now the 5-year cycle
📈 The megatrend
💰 And more…
Prices as at 4:00am ET
IT’S GO TIME 🤑
BREAKING: JPMorgan sees bitcoin hitting $165,000 by year-end on retail-led 'debasement trade'
JPMorgan just turned up the heat.
The bank’s analysts now see Bitcoin climbing to $165,000 by year-end - a 40% rally from today’s ~$120K - based on its value relative to gold.
Their model is simple:
Bitcoin-to-gold volatility has dropped below 2.0, meaning BTC now only consumes 1.85x more risk capital than gold.
To match gold’s $6T in private investment, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise 42% - “implying a theoretical bitcoin price of $165,000.”
And here’s the twist: it’s not Wall Street driving this. It’s retail.
JPMorgan says the surge comes from the “debasement trade”:
Everyday investors pouring into Bitcoin and gold ETFs as hedges against deficits, inflation, and fading trust in fiat.
And the ETF flows prove it. “Cumulative flows into spot bitcoin and gold ETFs have climbed sharply over the past year,” with Bitcoin leading early in 2025 before gold caught up.
Back in August, JPMorgan was calling for $126K BTC by year end. Now it’s $165K.
The signal couldn’t be louder: Bitcoin’s moment isn’t coming - it’s here. 🚀
Crypto Nutshell Pro Is OPENING SOON! 🚨
‘Uptober’ has arrived. 🔥
The next 90 days could define your entire portfolio.
To mark the start of Uptober, 5 Pro slots open daily next week.
First in, first served. No second chances at this price.
4-YEAR CYCLE IS NOW 5-YEAR CYCLE 🌀
Everyone loves to say Bitcoin runs on a 4-year cycle.
Raoul Pal says they’ve got it wrong.
In his latest market update, Raoul broke it down simply:
“It is always the business cycle, stupid. And this time, the business cycle has been pushed out.”
Why?
Following the pandemic, in 2021–22, the U.S. quietly extended the maturity of its debt - from 4 years to 5 years.
That one shift stretched the entire business cycle.
Raoul calls it the Everything Code in action:
Bitcoin doesn’t move because of halvings
It moves with the business cycle (ISM, liquidity, rates)
And right now, that cycle is running longer than usual
The takeaway:
“The four-year cycle, this time around, is a five-year cycle… a 5.4-year sine curve that peaks in 2026.”
Translation?
Liquidity and ISM should peak well into 2026.
Which means crypto’s true blow-off top likely lands around Q2 2026.
If he’s right, this cycle will not be like the others… ❌
THE MEGATREND 📈
Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of wallets that hold at least some Bitcoin. (anything greater than 0)
This metric offers a bird’s-eye view of user activity and adoption across the Bitcoin network.
But there’s a slight catch…
One wallet does not equal one user. A user can have many wallets.
What matters here is the trend of the chart.
Increasing number of addresses: increasing adoption levels 📈
Decreasing number of addresses: indicates users are selling their entire balance or consolidating wallets 📉
There are now 54,302,990 wallets holding Bitcoin.
That’s -76,325 in the last two weeks…
But if we zoom out?
2025 alone has added 1.86M new wallets.
The signal couldn’t be clearer:
Adoption is accelerating.
The holder base keeps expanding.
Conviction is compounding through every swing.
Prices rise and fall. But the network?
It only grows stronger. 💪
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Will the UK sell newly seized $7.2B BTC, create Bitcoin treasury or pay victims? A ruling on loss vs. mark-to-market will decide who gets the upside and how coins hit the market.
European Central Bank picks tech partners for digital euro. The ECB announced additional steps toward the potential launch of a digital euro, partnering with technology companies to develop components for the digital currency.
AVAT SPAC Deal Aims for $1B Treasury. AVAT aims to raise $1 billion to build an AVAX treasury and list on Nasdaq in early 2026, offering institutions discounted exposure to the network.
Bitcoin tops $121,000, ether hits three-week high amid US shutdown shuffle. The price of bitcoin and ethereum are rising alongside stocks, which have historically gained during similar shutdowns.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What infamous event in 2014 led to the collapse of Mt. Gox, once the largest Bitcoin exchange?
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A massive Bitcoin hack 🥳
Mt. Gox lost over 700,000 BTC in a hack, shaking global confidence in crypto exchanges. 💥
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.