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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #738 puttin’ in work… 🛠️🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more legendary than a king pulling a sword from stone to claim his destiny... ⚔️👑
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
😱 CZ pardoned
🔁 The 5-year cycle theory
⚡ Supply shock
💰 And more…
Prices as at 3:20am ET
CZ PARDONED 😱
BREAKING: Binance's CZ Wins Pardon From U.S. President Donald Trump
No one saw this coming…
President Donald Trump has officially pardoned Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
The White House confirmed the news Thursday, ending what Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called “the Biden Administration’s war on crypto.”
“President Trump exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao, who was prosecuted by the Biden Administration in their war on cryptocurrency… The Biden Administration’s war on crypto is over.”
Zhao - who served four months in a California minimum-security prison last year for violating the Bank Secrecy Act - is now free to return to business in the U.S.
Binance itself later confirmed the pardon, saying:
Moments later, CZ posted on X:
When asked why he issued the pardon, Trump had this to say:
“I don’t know him, I don’t believe I’ve ever met him, but I’ve been told he had a lot of support and they say that what he did is not even a crime… so I gave him a pardon at the request of a lot of very good people.”
The move caps off months of speculation that a deal was brewing.
Betting markets had already priced in rising odds after CZ quietly dropped the “ex-@binance” tag from his social profiles last month.
It also follows a string of Trump-era crypto pardons - including Ross Ulbricht and the BitMEX founders - signalling a full policy reversal from the Biden years.
Market reaction was instant: BNB surged 5%, and Trump-linked World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token jumped more than 15% on the news.
Critics, however, weren’t so happy...
Senator Elizabeth Warren said:
“First, Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to a criminal money laundering charge. Then he boosted one of Donald Trump’s crypto ventures and lobbied for a pardon. Today, Donald Trump did his part and pardoned him.”
Love it or hate it, the message is clear: Crypto is officially back in the political spotlight. 🦅
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THE 5-YEAR CYCLE THEORY 🔁
Most people think this crypto cycle ends in Q4 - October, November, December - just like every other 4-year halving cycle.
Raoul Pal doesn’t.
This week, the macro legend behind Global Macro Investor laid out why he believes this time really might be different.
In short:
Covid changed the timing of everything.
When rates went to zero, governments extended the maturity of their debt by roughly a year - pushing the next big rollover to 2026.
Raoul explained:
So in his view, the real liquidity wave - the one that usually drives the blow-off top - comes a year later than usual.
That means this cycle could stretch deep into mid-2026.
Still, Raoul’s warns to take caution:
And we agree.
While the evidence points to a 5-year cycle, it would be irresponsible not to respect the four-year rhythm.
If you’ve been waiting to take profits, October-December has historically been the window.
You don’t need to sell everything - but having some dry powder for a dip is never a bad idea.
The worst feeling in the world?
A bear market hits… and you’re fully deployed.
Be smart. Stay liquid. Play both probabilities. 🎲
SUPPLY SHOCK? ⚡
Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.
Here’s how to interpret this metric:
Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂
Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻
Just 2,853,311 BTC now sit on exchanges - 14.31% of the total supply.
Since January, another 225,744 BTC (worth ~$24.5 billion) has been pulled off the market.
We haven’t seen balances this low since 2019, when Bitcoin traded near $8,000.
And this time, it’s not retail…
It’s institutions, corporate treasuries, and long-term holders draining supply and locking it away.
History couldn’t be clearer: when liquidity dries up, Bitcoin doesn’t drift sideways.
It detonates. 💥🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
$1.8 trillion Wall Street giant files active multi-coin ETF to challenge BTC dominance. T. Rowe Price has filed an active crypto ETF aiming to outpace a multi-asset index of BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP.
Here's Why Bitcoin (BTC) May Crash Below $100K. A key volume indicator points to underlying market weakness, signaling a potential bitcoin sell-off below $100,000
Solana treasury firm Solmate's stock surges 50% amid plans for validator center and 'aggressive M&A strategy'. The company formerly known as Brera Holdings rebranded last month into a Solana-based digital asset treasury.
Bitcoin miner debt surges 500% as miners beef up for the hashrate fight. Bitcoin miners are turning to debt financing for funding fleet upgrades and also pay for a pivot to artificial intelligence and high-power computer hosting.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news
Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What does Solana use to sequence transactions efficiently before consensus?
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: Proof of History 🥳
Proof of History timestamps transactions, allowing Solana to maintain high throughput with low latency. ⚡
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.