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- 🥜 6 Key Dates
🥜 6 Key Dates
PLUS: 30 Million Bitcoin
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🗓️ Key September dates
🐻 $30 Million is too bearish
🌊 Outflows are back
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 4:00am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
KEY SEPTEMBER DATES 🗓️
BREAKING: Key Dates for Bitcoin and the Dollar Index
Historically, September isn’t Bitcoin’s greatest month…
On average, Bitcoin falls by -4.34% in September. 📉
But there’s some BIG events taking place this month that could change that.
Let’s break them down.
6th of September - Jobs Report
Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports on job growth and unemployment.
Last month, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped by 4% and 6% respectively after the BLS announced higher than expected unemployment.
Depending on the data, we could be in for a BIG price swing on this date.
10th of September - US Presidential Debate
You can’t deny that Bitcoin and crypto have become tied to the presidential election.
When Trump talks about Bitcoin, price goes up.
When Harris takes a lead in the polls, price goes down.
(We aren’t taking sides here, that’s just the way the market has been reacting)
The upcoming debate between Trump and Harris will have MAJOR ramifications for the crypto industry.
If Trump comes out of the debate looking stronger than before, there’s a good chance Bitcoin will pump.
11th of September - CPI Data Release
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August will be released on September 11.
This is perhaps the most important piece of data and if it comes in under 2.9%, it would suggest that inflation is moving in the right direction.
This is what analysts are expecting, meaning the Fed will likely begin cutting interest rates on September 18.
12th of September - PPI Data Release
The day after the CPI data is released, the BLS publishes Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data.
In July, the PPI showed greater than expected easing.
If the August data (released in September) shows continued declines in inflationary pressure…
That’s just another reason for the Fed to cut interest rates.
18th of September - FOMC Meeting
This is the big one…
This is where the Fed announces their interest rate decision.
During the last meeting, Fed chair Jerome Powell kept rates the same but announced that inflation was moving in the right direction.
That’s why analysts are almost certain that we’ll see the Fed announce rate cuts after this meeting.
29th of September - CZ Release Date
Now this ones a bit of an odd one…
But former Binance CEO CZ is set to be released after serving four months in prison.
And knowing the crypto market…
Could this be the catalyst that reignites the bull run?
So those are the most important dates to keep an eye on for September.
Let’s see if Bitcoin can buck the trend of negative Septembers…
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$30 MILLION IS BEARISH 🐻
Michael Saylor is ultra-bullish on Bitcoin.
His prediction is that Bitcoin could surge to $30 million per coin by 2045.
According to Mark Moss?
Saylor isn’t bullish enough.
Mark Moss is the host of the ‘Mark Moss Show’ and partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund.
In his latest interview with Kitco News, he broke down why Saylor isn’t bullish enough:
“I don't think [Saylor] was that bullish. I think he might not be bullish enough.”
Why does Mark think Saylor is too bearish?
Debt and liquidity.
Historically, Bitcoin has been highly correlated to global liquidity. (the more money that is printed, the higher the price of Bitcoin.)
In fact, Bitcoin has had a 89.5 sensitivity ratio to global liquidity.
This means, every time global liquidity goes up by 10%, Bitcoin goes up by 89.5%.
Then, if you look at the trend of debt all over the world:
Global liquidity is tracking to be astronomically high by 2045.
This bodes well for the price of Bitcoin.
Extremely well.
Mark then dropped his own personal price prediction for Bitcoin:
"The end of this cycle - I think it should be somewhere in the $100,000 to $150,000 range, based off of where we're at. However if Trump were to win and enact those policies, I think we get to the upper range of that, which could be $400,000. We'll know that obviously by November.”
He also dropped his long term prediction:
“Longer term though, I think a $1 million dollar Bitcoin by 2030 is in play.”
A $1 million dollar Bitcoin by 2030 seems bold.
However, that would be a ~60% growth rate per year.
Historically, Bitcoin has grown at ~180% per year.
However, we want to hear from you. 🫵
What do you think of a $1 Million Bitcoin by 2030? |
OUTFLOWS ARE BACK 🌊
Just as the inflow streak was starting to pick up again…
Outflows return. 😢
Last week, Digital asset funds saw net outflows of $305 million.
The negative sentiment was focused on Bitcoin, which saw outflows of $319 million.
Ethereum also experienced net outflows of $5.7 million.
However…
Solana surpassingly had a great week, seeing inflows of $7.6 million.
But…
Short-Bitcoin also saw inflows of $4.4 million. (investors betting against Bitcoin)
That’s the largest short-Bitcoin inflow we’ve seen since March of this year.
As always, things were concentrated in the United States.
Last week, the US experienced outflows of $318 million.
Germany and Hong Kong also saw outflows of $7.3m and $4.3m respectively.
Canada, Switzerland and Brazil all saw inflows of $13.2m, $5.5m and $2.8m respectively.
So what’s going on?
Why the sudden flip to outflows? 🤔
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill believes it has to do with the stronger than expected US economic data.
The US Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% for the month. And it’s up 2.5% from the same period last year.
With this data, analysts believe the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% instead of 0.50%.
Butterfill also expects Bitcoin to become increasingly sensitive to interest rate expectations as the Fed gets closer to their decision day.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
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Crypto dominates biggest 2024 ETF launches. Crypto ETFs dominate 2024 with top 4 spots in largest ETF launches, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust with $21 billion in inflows, highlighting massive adoption.
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Monthly DeFi protocol fees dropped 24% in August. The monthly DeFi protocol fees in August dropped 24.4% from July, recording the lowest point since February.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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