GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #868 struttin' in…🦩🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more layered than a spy who's been undercover so long he forgot which side he's on… 🕶️🪆

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Every Bitcoin ETF flow metric just turned green - the $80K test is next

Every single Bitcoin ETF flow metric just turned positive for the first time in months.

One-day, one-week, one-month, year-to-date.

All green.

Bloomberg's Balchunas confirmed it on Thursday:

BNY's global head of ETFs, Ben Slavin, backed it up: "Flows have turned positive for the year."

That's after months of outflows, a 50% drawdown, and a war that dominated markets for six weeks.

And still, investors haven’t rushed for the exits.

"We didn't see the rush to the exits by retail or other investors in ETFs like maybe you would see in other risk assets," Slavin said.

"They're using them in asset allocation models, buy and hold strategies, not just tactical trading tools."

The Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $1.9 billion over the past seven days alone.

BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $1.4 billion of that.

But it's not just the ETFs…

Whales have accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the biggest monthly increase since 2013.

Glassnode's risk index has dropped to zero, its lowest possible level, signalling what it calls a "cleared risk landscape."

Bitcoin is trading around $78,000 today, up 3.7% on the week.

The rally has cooled slightly after pushing above $79,000 yesterday, but the structure underneath keeps improving.

The big test now is $80,000.

Glassnode flagged that the short-term holder cost basis sits at $80,100.

That's the price where more than 54% of recent buyers move into profit and historically start selling.

Realised profit has already spiked to $4.4 million per hour, triple the level that marked every local top this year.

The demand is clear. The supply is tightening. But $80,000 is where the rally either proves itself or stalls. 🚀

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Charles Schwab just told 40 million investors it's time to start adding Bitcoin to their portfolios.

Let that sink in.🚰

Schwab isn't some niche fintech or crypto-native platform. They manage over $11 trillion in client assets. They're one of the largest, most conservative, most influential financial institutions in the United States.

When they issue guidance, it flows through to retirement accounts, brokerage accounts, and financial advisors all across America.

And they just officially recommended Bitcoin allocations of up to 7%.

If you want to watch their full recommendation, check it out here:

In a nutshell, The Schwab Centre for Financial Research broke it down by investor type.

A moderate 60/40 investor who wants 10% of their portfolio's risk from Bitcoin should allocate roughly 2.7% to Bitcoin.

An aggressive investor, someone who's already 96% in stocks, can justify up to 20% portfolio risk from Bitcoin, which translates to a 7% allocation.

That's not a fringe recommendation. That's Schwab's official guidance being pushed out to 40 million account holders.

Now think about what this actually means:

If even 10% of Schwab's clients followed this guidance at just a 2.7% allocation, you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in new Bitcoin buying pressure.

At the 7% allocation, the numbers get absurd.

And Schwab is just one firm.

We've already seen VanEck put out a $52,300 Ethereum price target. Fidelity is building custody. BlackRock is leading ETF flows. JPMorgan is forecasting $170,000 Bitcoin.

Every major name in traditional finance is not only acknowledging crypto, but actively guiding their clients to own it.

This is the quiet institutionalisation Cathie Wood has been talking about. This is the sovereign and corporate demand Matt Hougan has been laying out.

The biggest wealth manager in America just gave its stamp of approval. And most retail investors still haven't bought their first satoshi.

The floor keeps rising.

The permission slips keep getting issued. And the opportunity to position early gets smaller with every passing week. 🎟️

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

2.68 million BTC on exchanges. 13.39% of circulating supply. Both numbers: all-time lows.

Since January, 82,238 BTC have left exchanges. At current prices, that's roughly $6.14 billion withdrawn from the open market this year.

Bitcoin has lost half its value from the highs. Fear has dominated for months. The macro backdrop has been relentless. This is the exact environment where historically, weak hands break and coins flood back onto exchanges.

Instead, the exchange balance chart looks like a staircase going down. Step after step after step. Just a steady, persistent drain that refuses to respond to the chaos above it.

And the scale keeps growing. Two weeks ago the YTD withdrawal was 57,000 BTC. Now it's past 82,000. The drawdown isn't shaking coins loose - it's convincing more holders to pull them off the market entirely.

Every cycle produces a moment where price and conviction completely disconnect. Price says capitulation. On-chain says accumulation.

This is that moment. 💪

US Soldier Charged With $400K Polymarket Insider Trading Win on Maduro Removal. A U.S. Army major allegedly used classified intelligence to win nearly $400,000 betting on Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be captured.

Pantera Capital Urges Satsuma Technology to Liquidate Bitcoin Holdings Due to Significant Losses. Pantera is reportedly pushing the bitcoin treasury firm to sell its remaining BTC and return cash to shareholders after a severe share-price collapse.

Global crypto adoption slumps amid macro pressures, Turkey defies downtrend. TRM Labs data showed retail crypto volumes fell 11% year over year in Q1, while Turkey and some emerging markets stayed resilient because crypto still serves payments and savings use cases there.

Paradigm-backed Succinct launches iPhone camera app that combats AI fakes using cryptography. ZCAM signs photos and videos at capture so viewers can verify whether media came from a real device and was not digitally altered or generated.

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Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Around 95% 🥳

Over 20 million of the 21 million BTC have now been mined. The remaining supply will take over a century to fully mine due to the halving schedule, with the final Bitcoin not expected until approximately 2140.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.