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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #452 chargin’ it up… 🪫🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more thrilling than outwitting velociraptors in a theme park... 🦖🌿
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 The economy is strong?
🏀 $100,000 is a low-ball
📉 ETF flows are back
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 3:05am
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
THE ECONOMY IS STRONG? 🏦
BREAKING: U.S. Added Blowout 254K Jobs in September, Unemployment Rate Dips to 4.1%
The United States just released the September employment numbers…
And they blew expectations out of the park!
The government reported an increase of 254,000 jobs last month, smashing estimates of just 140,000.
They also revised August’s reported job gains from 142,000 down to 159,000.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% down to 4.1% (better than forecasts of 4.2%).
Bitcoin reacted positively to the news, sitting just above $62,000 at the time of writing.
However…
Prices are still sharply down as a result of the mini-sell off we saw from the escalation of war in the middle east. (BTC was above $66,000 a week ago)
But this employment report signals one thing:
The economy is strengthening.
Which bodes well for Bitcoin as analyst James Van Straten explains:
"A robust U.S. economy reduces uncertainty, particularly with the upcoming U.S. election, and this bodes well for bitcoin, removing one of the key risks looming over the market."
(We’ll dive deeper into how election uncertainty impacts the market in the next section)
This stronger than expected employment data also significantly lowered the odds of a second consecutive 0.50% rate cut.
According to CME FedWatch, there’s now a 97.4% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in November. (After the election)
Before this data was published, the market had a 70% chance of a 0.25% cut.
Things are starting to look real good…
Will Clemente summed up the current market perfectly with the following tweet:
If you're frustrated by one-sided reporting, our 5-minute newsletter is the missing piece. We sift through 100+ sources to bring you comprehensive, unbiased news—free from political agendas. Stay informed with factual coverage on the topics that matter.
$100,000 IS A LOW-BALL 🏀
A $100,000 Bitcoin by EOY may be a low-ball.
Why?
Because Q4 is shaping up to be epic.
That’s the latest out from mathematician, Fred Krueger.
In his latest update to investors, Krueger broke down 7 reasons Q4 is shaping up to be mega-bullish:
1. Election Over
If there’s one thing the market hates, it’s uncertainty.
By November 5th we will know who is President-elect.
2. Trump possibly in charge
Of the two main candidates, it’s undeniable that Trump is the more pro-Bitcoin candidate.
Not only did he speak at Bitcoin 2024, he’s also vowed to fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler, who has been very hostile towards crypto.
Regardless of the outcome, election uncertainty will be no more.
3. Another 0.5% rate cut
Krueger believes another 50bps interest rate cut is coming on November 8th. As monetary conditions ease, Bitcoin goes up.
4. China monetary easing in effect
China also just cut their interest rates. As global liquidity increases, so does Bitcoin.
5. FTX spigots open
Over the next 3 months, $16 billion dollars from the now bankrupt crypto exchange FTX is expected to be returned to investors.
However, claimants aren’t being paid back in crypto, they are being paid back in cash.
It’s expected a large portion of this $16 billion will find it’s way back into crypto.
6. Advisors and Wirehouses onboarding Bitcoin ETFs
Advisors and Wirehouses are slowly but surely onboarding the Bitcoin ETFs.
This will continue into Q4 and give more institutions and high net worth institutions the ability to allocate to Bitcoin.
7. More MicroStrategy smash buys
Michael Saylor has made one thing clear: he’s never going to stop buying Bitcoin.
We can expect more large Bitcoin purchases from MicroStrategy, as well as other institutions that have adopted the Bitcoin strategy; Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, etc.
Given all the bullish headwinds, Krueger concluded with this:
“Honestly, 100K EOY might be LOW.”
ETF FLOWS ARE BACK 📈
After four days of outflows, the Bitcoin ETFs have pulled things back. (slightly…)
On Friday, the Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $25.6 million.
Which ended a four day outflow streak of $361.2 million.
Interesting BlackRock experienced a neutral day of zero inflows or outflows.
Here’s the breakdown:
Bitwise BITB: $15.3 million 🥇
Fidelity FBTC: $13.6 million 🥈
ARK Invest ARKB: $5.3 million 🥉
The Ethereum ETFs also had a somewhat decent day…
Yesterday, they experienced net inflows of $7.4 million.
Grayscale’s ETHE saw the only outflows of the day at $8.2 million.
Here’s the breakdown:
BlackRock ETHA: $14.7 million 🥇
Bitwise ETHW: $0.9 million 🥈
And in other ETF news, BlackRock has been doing the rounds with a presentation to investors in Brazil.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas broke down the significance of this:
“An amazing photo here if you stop and think about it: the largest asset mgr in world making a well-polished case for bitcoin to clients with ginormous chart of decimation of the dollar's purchasing power since the establishment of the Fed. Life moves fast.”
BlackRock explaining the difference between Bitcoin, Gold and US treasuries.
That’s a big deal… 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
US government backs lawsuit claiming Nvidia misled investors on crypto mining revenue. AI giant Nvidia's alleged crypto revenue cover-up gains support from US authorities, including the DOJ and SEC.
Who was Len Sassaman, and why might HBO think he is Satoshi Nakamoto? The late cryptographer and privacy advocate is in the spotlight because bettors on Polymarket think he may be identified as Satoshi Nakamoto.
U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's. With a month to go before Election Day, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers have listed prediction markets on the race for the White House.
Hedge funds have never been more convicted about crypto. Overall, it’s been another mild week, consistent with the past three months.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news
Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Which crypto is currently the 4th largest measured by market cap? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) BNB 🥳
BNB currently has a market cap of ~$84 billion, making it the fourth largest cryptocurrency.
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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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