GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #924 gustin‘ by… 🍃🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more briefed-in than an ambassador catching the hidden demand before the motorcade reaches the palace… 🗂️🚘

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs draw $197M, snap 8-week outflow streak

The bleeding finally stopped.

After eight straight weeks and $8.26 billion out the door, Bitcoin ETFs just recorded a week of net inflows.

$197 million back in.

A trickle against the $8 billion that bled out, sure.

But after two months of one-way traffic, direction matters more than size. (Ether funds snapped their own eight-week streak too, adding $84 million.)

It's the first real sign institutional demand might be turning.

So why isn't Bitcoin celebrating?

Because the price actually slipped today, back to around $62,700, handing back most of Friday's pop.

Cast your mind back to Friday…

SK Hynix's record listing lit up the entire AI-chip trade and hauled Bitcoin up toward $64K.

We said it then: live by the AI trade, die by it.

Well…

Over the weekend, that trade went into reverse.

Hynix shares cratered 12% in Seoul, dragging the Kospi down 7%. The exact engine that lifted Bitcoin on Friday threw it backward today.

Then there's the war.

The US struck Iran for a fourth time in a week, and every asset that's supposed to react to war did.

Gold slid, oil jumped 4% past $79, bonds fell, stocks dropped.

Every asset except one.

Bitcoin barely flinched at the strikes. (It’s basically flat on the week and month)

It's still refusing to trade the war, taking its cues from the chip cycle and dollar liquidity while gold, oil and bonds do the reacting. Same repricing we've tracked for weeks - Bitcoin as a rates asset, not a war hedge.

So where does that leave us?

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin's drifting toward the floor of a price model that's caught every major bottom since 2015. That support sits near $58K, and we're closing in on what he calls an accumulation zone.

The catch?

He sees no catalyst to turn it yet, and reckons Bitcoin could sit near that line for months.

So the demand tide might be shifting.

Just don't mistake one green week for the catalyst. It still isn't here. 🚀

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Six words. No chart. No thread. Just a call, timestamped and public.

Fred Krueger is a Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader, and author of "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat."

He doesn't hedge, and he doesn't delete.

Here's what he tweeted this week:

That's the whole post. "70K next week. Seriously. Mark it."

What makes it worth watching isn't the number. It's the track record behind it.

This is the same man who called Bitcoin "extremely cheap" at 0.57x Power Law. Who said "the bears are dead wrong."

Who told everyone "MSTR and Bitcoin have bottomed. Book it."

Who ran the balance sheet math showing Strategy sitting on $32 billion in net cash while critics modelled bankruptcy.

Who showed that every time selling gets intense in this cycle, buyers step in far sooner than they did in 2022.

He's been putting his name on calls all the way through this drawdown. And the market keeps proving him right.

Now he's putting a date on it.

Everything else we're tracking points the same direction. Bitwise's flow model says Bitcoin is 30% below fair value. Stansberry's model says fair value is $134k. The buyers keep stepping in sooner. The floor keeps rising.

Krueger isn't guessing. He's just calling the number before everyone else sees it.

Mark it. 🖊️

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here's how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 18.64% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

Down from 19.83% two weeks ago - a 1.19% drop, and the sharpest STH contraction we've clocked in a while.

One band did nearly all of it. The 3-6 month cohort collapsed from 7.92% to 6.38% - a huge batch of coins crossing the six-month line into long-term hands. That's the same migration that pushed our LTH read above 80% last week… just viewed from the other side.

The front end was a wash. Fresh sub-1-week buying ticked up, but it's a rounding error next to what's leaving out the back. The 1m-3m band swelled too, as spring buyers aged forward toward that six-month threshold.

Net it out: short-term supply has dropped to 18.64%, down from roughly 30% to start the year. The reactive, panic-prone float keeps thinning - and it just set another fresh low. 💎

What Is Robinhood Chain? The Ethereum Layer-2 Network for Tokenized Stocks. Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum technology for tokenized assets, crypto apps, and other onchain financial products.

Stablecoin market cap has shrunk by $10 billion since May, but analyst sees no reason to panic. The market lost $7.7 billion in June, its biggest dollar contraction since the Terra-Luna crash.

Cambridge study puts Ethereum near the lower end of PoS energy intensity. Cambridge estimates Ethereum consumes 7.87 GWh annually and ranks second-lowest by market-value-adjusted energy intensity among the studied PoS networks.

Crypto fatwa sparks debate over Pakistan’s digital asset framework. Pakistan’s regulator opened talks with Islamic scholar Mufti Taqi Usmani after a fatwa declared crypto purchases impermissible.

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Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Code on a blockchain that can automatically execute agreed rules 🥳

A smart contract is a program stored on a blockchain. It can carry out actions such as swaps, loans, or token transfers when its programmed conditions are met.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.