Today’s edition is brought to you by Crypto.com

Start earning up to 5% back on all your spending! No annual fees. Sign up for the Crypto.com Visa Card today to receive your instant $25 bonus!

GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #601 stayin’ neat… 🌻🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more chaotic than a band of misfit pirates chasing cursed treasure across the seas... ☠️🏴‍☠️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🏦 The Fed speaks

• 🧠 77% chance of new all-time high

• 💪 Multi-year lows

• 💰 And more…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

THE FED SPEAKS 🏦

BREAKING: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals potential loosening of crypto rules for banks

Jerome Powell just gave the market whiplash.

Bitcoin briefly surged towards $86K before crashing back down to $83,300 today. (At the time of writing it has since recovered to $84,600)

Why?

Because Powell dropped a macro bombshell.

Fed Chair Powell warned that Trump’s escalating tariffs are “significantly larger than anticipated” and could drive the U.S. economy into stagflation.

Here’s what he had to say:

Translation: Stagflation is back on the menu - and that’s bad news for risk assets.

The immediate aftermath:

• The Nasdaq: -3.4%.

• S&P 500: -2.24%

• Nvidia: -6.87%

The market took Powell’s speech as extremely hawkish…

Meaning a May rate cut is firmly off the table.

CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a May rate cut at just 13.5%, down from 27.4% last week.

But it’s not all doom and gloom out there…

While Powell spooked markets on the macro front, he also dropped a surprisingly bullish signal for crypto.

Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell acknowledged the industry’s rocky past - but said things are changing:

He emphasized any rule changes would preserve bank safety and consumer protection - but regulators are finally shifting toward “responsible innovation.”

That shift is already in motion:

• The FDIC will rescind old guidance and allow banks to pursue crypto activities without prior approval

• The OCC clarified that crypto is fully allowed in the federal banking system

• Trump is pushing for a stablecoin bill to hit his desk “as soon as possible”

While headlines scream inflation and volatility, the bigger shift may be happening in the background.

The U.S. crypto regulatory climate is quietly flipping bullish.

And that could be the tailwind Bitcoin needs when the Fed finally blinks.

MAKE EVERY TRANSACTION COUNT 💳

If you haven’t got a crypto card yet, you’re living in the past.

With a Crypto.com Visa Card you can spend your crypto anywhere you want.

The benefits are insane.

Not only is there NO monthly or annual fee, you also get up to 5% back on every transaction.

With your Crypto.com Visa Card you can:

• Enjoy 100% cashback on Spotify, Netflix, and Amazon as a new customer. 🍿

• Get complimentary access to airport lounges and elevate your travel experience. ✈️

• Flaunt your style with the sleek and stylish metal card 🌟

Here’s how to get your $25 bonus and start earning up to 5% back:

1. Click here to Download the Crypto.com App

2. Sign Up: Use our referral code - Nutty - for your instant $25 bonus.

3. Get Your Crypto.com Visa Card: Start making transactions, earning rewards, and enjoying the perks!

Start making every transaction count - the future is here.*

77% CHANCE OF NEW ALL-TIME HIGH 🧠 

Fred Krueger just ran the math.

And according to his model?

Bitcoin has a 77% chance of hitting a new all-time high this year. 👀

Fred Krueger is a mathematician and here’s his logic:

Let’s break that down for non-math people:

Fred is treating Bitcoin like a financial particle - bouncing around with randomness (aka volatility), but no fixed direction.

That’s called geometric Brownian motion - this is the same math used in option pricing.

Given that:

• Starting price: $85K

• Target: $108K (ATH)

• Volatility: 80%

Assuming zero trend, the chance of Bitcoin hitting an ATH in 2025 = 65%
(based purely on chaotic movement + time)

But here’s where it gets interesting…

Fred adds in a power law drift of 40% - basically a built-in upward bias from Bitcoin adoption and demand growth.

When you do that?

The math says there is 77% odds of smashing a new ATH this year.

Even ChatGPT agrees… it simulated the result and backed it up.

This model is interesting, because Polymarket is currently pricing in just 50% odds of a new ATH.

Fred believes that’s way off - and can be arbitraged by smart hedging.

Translation: The market is underpricing Bitcoin’s upside.

So…

Fred’s not just bullish.

He’s using math to prove it.

And if he’s right?

The odds are big-time in our favor. 🍀

MULTI-YEAR LOWS 💪

Today we’ll be checking in on the amount of Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

• Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂

• Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

According to Glassnode, just 17.70 million ETH sits on exchanges - that’s only 14.65% of the circulating supply.

And it’s not slowing down…

In the past two weeks alone, exchange balances have fallen by 113,330 ETH (~$182.8 million at today’s prices)

Despite all the noise, ETH holders aren’t blinking.

Supply is tightening. Balances are hovering near multi-year lows. And that’s typically the setup for something big.

Because when liquid supply vanishes…

We all know what tends to follow. 🚀

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

VanEck proposes Bitcoin-linked Treasury bonds to offset $14 trillion in US debt. Matthew Sigel described the proposal of a bond with 10% exposure to Bitcoin as “an aligned solution for mismatched incentives.”

Mantra Plans 'Comprehensive Burn Program' of OM Following 90% Crash. OM recently fell from over $6 to under $0.45 in a matter of hours on no apparent catalyst.

US Secret Service combats $4.3 million Ethereum 'phishing' scam with aid of Canadian officials. “Operation Avalanche” identified digital wallets that had lost $4.3 million dollars.

Public mining firms sold over 40% of their BTC in March. Miners continue to face economic challenges as the cost of everything from energy to hardware is projected to rise due to trade tariffs.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

• Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news

• Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: It adjusts based on network hash rate 🥳

The protocol adjusts difficulty roughly every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) to keep block times close to 10 minutes.

GET IN FRONT OF 95,000+ CRYPTO INVESTORS

Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.

Get in touch today.😎

HOW DID WE DO? 🤷

We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)

NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.