GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #931 touchin‘ down… 🛬🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more improv-ready than an off-duty cop turning office tape and a radio into a skyscraper strategy… 🏢📻

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Trump-backed crypto ethics rule puts DOJ in charge of enforcement, prohibits federal officials from issuing cryptocurrencies

Yesterday we said read the fine print.

Today the fine print arrived.

And it's a doozy…

Trump's agreed ethics language for the CLARITY Act would bar federal officials - the president, VP, members of Congress - from issuing their own cryptocurrencies.

Aimed squarely at the memecoin that earned Trump $635 million.

So far, so serious.

Then comes the catch…

Who enforces it?

Not state attorneys general, as Democrats wanted. The Justice Department.

Which means the president's own DOJ polices the president. And the man nominated to run it is Trump's former personal lawyer.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks - one of the handful of Democrats whose votes actually decide this - didn't mince words.

She called it "an unserious offer" and said she wouldn't back the bill with that language in it.

The White House sees it differently, arguing it's agreed to the most comprehensive ethics provision in history and has "bent over backward" for Democrats.

Its message: if this dies, that's on them.

So the wall cracked yesterday. Today we found out the door's still chained.

Enforcement is now the whole ballgame. Sort that, and the rest of the bill moves. Miss the August 7 recess, and it likely slides past the midterms into 2027.

Meanwhile, the market's voting yes anyway.

Bitcoin hit $66,300, a seven-week high and roughly 15% above its early-July low.

Prediction markets have CLARITY's 2026 odds back up to 53%, from far lower a week ago.

But temper it…

CME futures open interest just hit its lowest since 2023.

Spot volumes are running at 62% of the annual average. K33 calls it a "summer slumber" - prices drifting up on thin participation rather than real conviction.

And $68K is the wall. That's roughly what everyone who bought in the last five months paid, so it's where trapped buyers finally get to break even and sell.

The bill's alive. The rally's real but thin.

Both still need someone to actually show up. 🚀

That pit in your stomach is trying to tell you something: Waiting until spring is costing you peace of mind.

When tax season feels like a crisis, it’s usually because the right financial information isn’t organized ahead of time. Deductions, education expenses, and important documents all become a last-minute scramble.

Listen to your gut. You can start preparing now.

BELAY’s experienced tax prep professionals help you stay organized year-round, so tax season becomes simpler, less stressful, and actually manageable.

Start with BELAY’s free Personal Tax Prep Checklist and take the first step toward a smoother tax season.

Don’t spend another spring stressing over paperwork. Get help now and leave the pit in your stomach behind for good.

Download the Free Checklist

Fred Krueger just published his list of certainties. No hedging, no maybes.

Krueger is a Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader, and author of "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat."

Here's what he tweeted:

Read the list carefully and a single thesis runs through all nine.

Houses more expensive. Top hotels more expensive. California worse. The deficit past $50 trillion. That's not nine predictions, that's one prediction: the money keeps getting debased, and anything genuinely scarce reprices upward.

Then look at what he expects to fail. Bonds disappoint. Stocks are meh. Your trading ideas don't work. The traditional playbook doesn't clear the hurdle in a world debasing this fast, which is Raoul Pal's 11% hurdle rate in plain English.

Which leaves the last line.

Not the safest. Not the surest. The best risk-adjusted trade available, from a man who prices risk for a living.

Everything else on the list is the reason why. 🎱

Today we're looking at BTC Risk - a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.308 (two weeks ago: 0.301)

A first tick higher off the floor.

After tumbling from 0.392 down to 0.300 and then basing there for two readings, BTC Risk has finally nudged up - 0.301 to 0.308. Small, but it's the first move off the bottom since the metric found its floor.

Don't read too much into the direction yet. At ~0.31 we're still deep below the 0.5 midpoint - the discount zone that's historically rewarded patient buyers rather than burned them.

So the metric is lifting off its cheapest levels of the run, but it's a long way from anything resembling stretched. Still firmly in buyer-friendly territory. 📊

Ether breaks the $1.9K resistance; is $2.1K the next target for ETH bulls? Ether cleared $1,900, but onchain headwinds leave the next push unconfirmed.

Augustus Raises $180 Million to Build a Stablecoin-Ready ‘Global Dollar Bank’ The round values Augustus at $1 billion as it connects stablecoin rails to a federally chartered bank.

Telegram plans ‘largest rollout of a non-custodial crypto wallet in human history’ Telegram wants to place a native self-custody wallet in front of more than one billion users.

Galaxy sets up $5 million fund to help shield Bitcoin against quantum computing threats Galaxy will fund developers working on post-quantum Bitcoin defenses.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Buying an asset where it is cheaper and selling it where it is more expensive 🥳

Arbitrage traders try to capture price gaps between exchanges or markets. Fees, transfer times, and price movement can erase the apparent profit.

Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.

Get in touch today.😎

We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.