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PLUS: Rate cuts on the way
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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #439 slidin’ on in… 🥌 🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more magical than a nanny who arrives when the wind changes... ☂️✨
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 The big day
💣 It’s almost time…
📈 HODLer dynamics
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:15am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
THE BIG DAY 🏦
BREAKING: Markets expect a 50-basis-point rate cut
In roughly 5 hours the next FOMC meeting will commence.
This is the meeting where the Fed will announce their decision on interest rates.
We all know a rate cut is coming but will it be a 0.25% or a 0.50% rate cut?
That’s the question everyone is asking.
According to CME FedWatch, a 0.50% rate cut is now the most likely option, with a 63% chance.
In case you didn’t know, rate cuts are BULLISH for risk assets.
If we do see a rate cut today, it will only be the second time in Bitcoin's history that this happens. 👀
Here’s another chart showing why rate cuts are bullish:
The Fed has cut rates with the S&P 500 near all-time highs 20 times.
And the S&P 500 was higher a year later ALL 20 times.
AND the S&P 500 just set a new all-time high…
Are things lining up for a super cycle? (more on this in the next section)
Possibly…
All we know for now is that cheap capital is about to hit the markets. 🚀
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IT’S ALMOST TIME… 💣
No more false alarms.🚨
It looks like the ‘banana zone’ is actually about to begin. 🍌
That’s the latest out from macroeconomic expert, Raoul Pal.
If you’ve been in the crypto space for any length of time, you would be familiar with the ‘banana zone’.
It’s a term coined by Raoul Pal.
The ‘banana zone’ is the point in the crypto cycle in which global liquidity picks up, sending crypto prices parabolic.
Bitcoin & crypto very closely follow global liquidity.
The more money in the system, the higher crypto goes.
However, crypto prices lag global liquidity by around ~10-12 weeks.
The good news?
This means we can somewhat predict where crypto prices will end up. 🔮
Posting on X, Raoul showed the correlation between Global M2 and Bitcoin:
Global M2 = total money in the global economy
He then posted Global Liquidity vs Bitcoin:
As you can see, the correlation is pretty compelling.
It would suggest that the ‘banana zone’ is right around the corner.
For real this time. 😂
“Close, very close.”
Raoul’s work suggest that Bitcoin ends the year somewhere between $90,000 & $100,000.
Wether he’s right or not, the stars do seem to be aligning for a very big Q4.
Not long to go now… 💣
HODLER DYNAMICS 💪
Time for a check in on one of our favourite charts.
The supply last active 1+ years ago metric is super simple to understand and extremely useful.
It categorises coins based on how long it’s been since they last moved on-chain. (as a percentage of the circulating supply)
Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈
Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉
Here’s the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 2 weeks ago):
🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 65.58% (down from 65.72%)
🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 53.61% (down from 53.69%)
🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 45.93% (down from 45.95%)
🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.92% (up from 30.91%)
Over the last two weeks the 1+, 2+ and 3+ ages bands experienced slight decreases.
But…
The 5+ age band saw a minor (only 0.01%) increase.
However, these increases and decreases are almost negligible…
Long-term holders typically only sell when prices break new all-time highs.
So we don’t expect any downtrends in this metric until Bitcoin once again surpasses $73,000.
When the long-term holder supply remains (relatively) stable, that’s the time to sit tight and be patient.
The “banana zone” is approaching. 🍌
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Trump's new DeFi project World Liberty Financial aims at SEC reversal on crypto. With backing from the Trump family, World Liberty Financial aims to challenge financial intermediaries and traditional banking barriers.
Bitcoin poised for volatility ahead of US interest rate decision — Analysts. Bitcoin price is poised for more volatility ahead of the US interest rate decision on Sept. 18.
Bhutan, Tiny Country With $3B GDP, Holds Over $780M in Bitcoin. Bhutan’s state-owned Druk Holdings touts digital assets as one of its focus investment groups.
Coinbase's Base Layer 2 shatters transaction records with over 4.5 million in a single day. The surge in transactions represents a significant leap from Base's impressive performance, highlighting its rapid adoption and scalability.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news
Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is "mining" in Bitcoin? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) The process of confirming transactions and adding them to the blockchain 🥳
Bitcoin mining is a process by which computers can generate new Bitcoins by doing work that validates transactions and keeps the network secure.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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