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- 🥜 Alt-Season cancelled?
🥜 Alt-Season cancelled?
PLUS: Inflation runs hot
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Worst nightmare
🩸 Is Alt-Season cancelled?
📈 Up only
💰 And more…
Prices as at 2:30am ET
WORST NIGHTMARE 😱
BREAKING: US inflation rises broadly, further denting rate cut prospects
The Fed’s worst nightmare just came true…
Inflation came in ABOVE expectations, and not just slightly…
This was the hottest inflation report since 2023.
Headline CPI inflation was expected to remain flat at 2.9%, while Core CPI inflation was expected to fall to 3.1%
Instead…
Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.0% and Core CPI inflation rose to 3.3%.
But it gets worse…
On a month-to-month basis, Headline CPI surged by +0.5%, way above expectations of +0.3%.
This marks the first +0.5% increase since August 2023.
And the crazy part?
These figures don’t even factor in the newly established tariffs on China and other countries—which will likely push inflation even higher.
With this new data, the market now sees just ONE rate cut in October 2025.
From there, the next expected cut isn’t until December 2026.
Normally, this kind of inflation shock would trigger a broad market sell-off.
But that’s not what happened…
Although Bitcoin did immediately crash down below $95,000. It has since recovered and is sitting at ~$96,000 at the time of writing.
This resilience suggests that sellers may be exhausted and that Bitcoin is finding strong demand at these levels.
Just like yesterday, this could be another sign that the local bottom is in. 😎
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IS ALT-SEASON CANCELLED? 🩸
It’s no secret, alt-coins have been bleeding bad since the start of the year.
Does that mean alt-season is cancelled?
Absolutely not.
That’s the latest from Raoul Pal.
By now, you should know Raoul Pal.
He’s a renowned macroeconomic expert with over a decade of experience and one of the best track records in the game.
Yesterday, Raoul did a livestream to show why alt-season is not cancelled.
First things first - if your altcoin bags are feeling extra heavy, you're not alone:
"We've all got our failures. Me, I've got a few things in my wallet that are down enormously, and I pretend that I don't see them.”
But - that doesn’t mean alt-season isn’t coming.
Here are the 3 most compelling charts that prove it:
1. Global M2 just broke out:
Every single time Global M2 breaks out, Bitcoin breaks higher.
2. The ISM just turned higher
The ISM, (a good proxy for the business cycle) just started going up.
Historically, when the ISM goes up, Bitcoin follows.
3. When the ISM rises, altcoins take off
When the ISM rises, Bitcoin follows.
But what moves even faster? Altcoins.
As Raoul so eloquently put it:
“‘Give me my alts! Where's the Banana Zone? The Banana Zones not happening? The Banana Zones failed? You've slipped on the banana skin?’
Shut the f*ck up. It takes time. It'll all play out. As the ISM accelerates, altcoins will accelerate.”
No need to panic.
Alt-season is still on the horizon. 🌅
UP ONLY 📈
It’s time for another look at Ethereum’s supply side dynamics.
Today we’ll be focusing on the amount of Ethereum currently being staked.
Quick Note: Ethereum staking involves locking up ETH to support the blockchain’s security. In return, users earn rewards for staking.
If you’d like to learn more about staking, check out this article.
As of today, 57,064,522 ETH is staked.
That’s an increase of 487,020 Ethereum in the past two weeks. (~$1.31 billion at today’s prices)
And yes, this marks yet another all-time high. (In fact, this metric literally sets a new all-time high daily)
Here’s the crazy part though…
That’s 47.54% of the ENTIRE CIRCULATING SUPPLY.
That means nearly half of all ETH is in the hands of long-term holders—those who aren’t looking to sell anytime soon.
With so much supply locked away, the available ETH for trading is shrinking fast, setting the stage for a potential supply squeeze.
Bullish? We think so. 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Donald Trump taps crypto advocate a16z's Brian Quintenz for CFTC leadership. Crypto-friendly Brian Quintenz's inclination towards innovative regulation garners support amid expectations of a CFTC-led crypto oversight.
State reserve bills add up to $23B in Bitcoin buys: VanEck. Some 20 US states are mulling creating Bitcoin reserves, and so is the federal government.
Coinbase Q4 Earnings Expected to Show Best Volume Since 2021. The crypto exchange reports fourth quarter results after the close on Thursday.
Robinhood's crypto trading volume surges 400% to $70 billion in Q4. The commission-free brokerage reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.01 billion, which beat the estimated $944 million.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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