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- 🥜 Astrophysicist discovers insane Bitcoin pattern
🥜 Astrophysicist discovers insane Bitcoin pattern
PLUS: Ethereum Explosion Coming
GM to all 42,344 of you. Crypto Nutshell #222 swoopin’ in. 🦅 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's less perplexing than navigating the complex world of dreams within dreams... 💤 🌐
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
💥 Ethereum is set to explode
🔭 Astrophysicist discovers insane Bitcoin pattern
📈 The cycles are lining up…
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 4:45am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETHEREUM IS SET TO EXPLODE 💥
BREAKING: Standard Chartered believes SEC will approve Ethereum ETFs in May
Standard Chartered Bank has predicted that the SEC will approve the Ethereum ETFs by May 23rd.
This expectation is based on the way the Bitcoin ETFs were handled by the SEC.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of Standard Chartered Bank’s forex and digital assets research, wrote in a report:
"We expect pending applications for ETH U.S. spot ETFs to be approved on May 23, the final deadline for the first of the ETFs under consideration — the equivalent date to Jan. 10 for BTC ETFs,"
Kendrick has two main reasons for why he believes an Ethereum ETF will be approved:
The SEC has not categorized Ethereum as a security in its legal actions against Coinbase and Binance
Ethereum has already been approved for futures based ETFs
Plus Grayscale also has an Ethereum trust that they want to convert into an ETF (sounds a little familiar doesn’t it?)
"Grayscale also has an ETH trust that it wants to turn into an ETF, so a denial of that application would likely lead to another appeal by Grayscale."
Here’s the juicy part though.
Standard Chartered is predicting Ethereum to hit $4,000 by the time the ETFs are approved.
“If ETH prices perform similarly to how BTC prices performed in the lead-up to BTC ETF approval, ETH could trade as high as $4,000 by then.”
Exciting times ahead for Ethereum. 😎
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ASTROPHYSICIST DISCOVERS INSANE BITCOIN PATTERN 🔭
5 years ago, an astrophysicist named Giovanni Santostasi posted on the Bitcoin subreddit.
He had discovered something peculiar. Bitcoin followed a power law. He predicted it would continue to do so into the future.
At the time no one believed him. The past surely couldn’t reliably predict the future.
Right?
Well earlier this month, 5 years later, Giovanni posted an update.
Bitcoin is still predictably following a power law.
Giovanni was right.
This leaves 2 glaring questions. If Bitcoin continues to follow this power law:
How high will it go in the 2024 / 2025 bull-run?
Where will Bitcoin be in 10 years time?
Let’s dive in:
First things first - wtf is a power law?
The answer is very complex & far too long to break down here.
But in a nutshell, a power law is an exponential growth pattern. For example, the bigger something gets, the faster it grows.
Power laws can be used to predict relationships between two very different things. It leads to some fascinating patterns.
For a much better breakdown on power laws, check out this fantastic VSauce video.
Giovanni Santostasi used mathematics and found that the price of Bitcoin, over the past 15 years, has followed a power law.
Giovanni’s Power Law Prediction
So where does it predict Bitcoin will peak in 2024 / 2025?
The power law predicts Bitcoin will peak at $150,000 - $200,000 in the middle of 2025.
“People still don’t want to believe BTC is completely predictable. No asset on earth has done this before, none. It is crazy and scary at the same time, but true.”
Where does it predict Bitcoin will be in 10 years time?
By 2033, it predicts Bitcoin will be worth $1 million. 🤯
“Everybody wants to know when it is $1 million, right? So let me tell you that. It will be $1 million in 2033. July of 2033.”
Let’s hope this astrophysicist is on to something. 🫡
P.S. We definitely didn’t do the mathematics & explanation behind power laws justice.
To read more about this fascinating story, check out these links:
Giovanni's first post on the Bitcoin subreddit (5+ years ago)
Giovanni's follow up post in 2024
Andrei Jikh’s video breakdown on the Bitcoin power law
Giovanni full interview explaining the math behind Bitcoin's power law
THE CYCLES ARE LINING UP… 📈
Today we’ve got an interesting one for you.
We’ll be taking a look at exactly how this cycle compares to prior cycles.
The chart below tracks the price performance of Bitcoin from it’s previous all-time high. (for all cycles)
If you’re new to crypto, traditionally Bitcoin has followed a four year market cycle. This is due to the Bitcoin halving occurring every four years.
For a deeper dive into Bitcoin’s four year cycle, checkout this article.
Take a close look at the chart above. 👀
Don’t you think it’s crazy how well the previous cycles line up to todays?
The price movement is almost identical.
Here’s the breakdown of where we are today compared to prior cycles:
🔴 Cycle 2: 45.7% below ATH
🔵 Cycle 3: 43.6% below ATH
⚫️ Current Cycle: 37.3% below ATH
Now if the prior cycles are anything to go off, we should see Bitcoin melt upwards until it reaches a new ATH…
BUT, keep in mind, past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Obligatory Mark Twain quote:
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Fidelity inflows smash Grayscale outflows as $255 million Bitcoin enters US market. Grayscale's GBTC outflow slows as competition from Newborn nine Bitcoin ETFs heats up.
German authorities seize 50K BTC connected to piracy websites. The Saxony police and German tax authorities and prosecutors secured more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin connected to the proceeds of piracy websites.
Bitcoin floating above $43k as Fed decision looms. Tuesday witnessed a modest decline in equities influenced by the anticipation of big tech earnings and cautious signals from Fed officials.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Which of the following coins/tokens was released first? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) XRP 🥳
Ripple was first released in 2012 and was co-founded by Chris Larsen and Jed McCaleb.
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