🥜 Banana Zone

PLUS: Big crypto bust

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 👮‍♀️ Crypto wallet shutdown

  • 🍌 The banana zone

  • 🤔 Where are we at?

  • 💰 And more…

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MARKET WATCH ⚖️

market data

Prices as at 7:45am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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CRYPTO WALLET SHUTDOWN 👮‍♀️

BREAKING: DOJ arrests founders of privacy-focused crypto wallet Samourai

jail

Crypto is tumbling today.

Here’s why:

The Department of Jusitce (DOJ) has taken action against Samourai Wallet.

(A crypto mixing service)

Samourai’s CEO Keonne Rodriguez & CTO William Hill were both arrested on Wednesday.

The DOJ had this to say:

“Samourai unlawfully combined multiple unique features to execute anonymous financial transactions valued at over $2 billion for its customers. While offering Samourai as a ‘privacy’ service, the defendants knew that it was a haven for criminals to engage in large-scale money laundering and sanctions evasion.”

Department of Jusitce

Working with law enforcement authorities in Iceland, The DOJ seized Samourai’s web servers and domain.

The domain now displays the following image:

seized

Their website now displays this image

The 2 were officially charged with:

  • One count of conspiracy to commit money laundering - maximum sentence of 20 years

  • One count of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business - maximum sentence of 5 years

Regulators have been going after transaction mixing services for quite a while now.

(mixing services focus on keeping crypto transactions private by intentionally mixing up and obfuscating transactions)

In 2022, the US government sanctioned Tornado Cash. It’s developer, Alexey Pertsev, is currently on trial in the Netherlands.

ES tweet

From the press release, every transaction that has ever gone through Samourai Wallet is being treated as unlawful.

Which doesn’t sound fair…

And almost impossible to prove.

One thing is clear.

US regulators are sending a message.

No transactions in crypto will be private or anonymous. 😳

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THE BANANA ZONE 🍌

Things are about to get absolutely wild.

The banana zone is just around the corner.

That’s the latest message out from Raoul Pal.

Raoul is a veteran in both crypto & financial markets, having first bought Bitcoin 10+ years ago.

In his latest video, Raoul made a somewhat “controversial” call:

“As we come into crypto summer… Ethereum starts to outperform Bitcoin. This is a terribly unpopular thing to say. Just wait. Have patience. You will see.”

Raoul Pal

Continuing on, Raoul is also calling for Solana to outperform both Bitcoin and Ethereum this cycle.

“Will it [Ethereum] outperform Solana? I very much doubt it. Solana is earlier in the adoption curve. So it means the percentage changes are larger.”

Raoul Pal

(FYI, this was true for last cycle. Both Ethereum and Solana DID outperform Bitcoin)

But what is crypto summer?

Crypto summer is the name given to the period just after the halving.

  • 🟩 Spring

  • 🟨 Summer

  • 🟧 Fall

  • 🟦 Winter

Raoul Chart

Crypto “seasons” throughout the year

Here’s how Raoul explains it:

“Right now this is the easy year, summer. So we should just be able to set it and forget it and let the gains accumulate.

Raoul Pal

According to Raoul, Crypto Summer is the beginning of the crazy times. Where everything seems to explode in price.

But when we enter Crypto Fall, things get even crazier…

Raoul has dubbed this time period as “The Banana Zone”

“When you hit the banana zone, things get absolutely wild. Which is the really magical part of why this is the greatest macro trade of all time.

Raoul Pal

Just take a look at the chart below:

banana zone

Previous “banana zones” compared to where we are now

Price increases like that almost seem to good to be true.

But it has happened 3 times in a row…

As we progress through Crypto Summer, the best thing to do is to just HODL and let the gains accumulate. 😎

Things are about to get ridiculous.

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WHERE ARE WE AT? 🤔

Today we’ll be taking a look at the MVRV Z-Score.

This metric simply compares the market value to the realized value.

  • Market Value (Market cap): current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the circulating supply

  • Realized Value: the value of all coins at the price they were last moved

A market top (red zone) is categorised by market value being significantly higher than the realized value.

A market bottom (green zone) is categorised by market value being significantly lower than the realized value. (also the best time to scoop up cheap Bitcoin)

onchain

The easiest way to use this metric is to think about it as a gauge of where we currently are in the cycle.

Since the cycle bottom in November 2022, MVRV has been rallying. With some dips along the way of course.

Currently it’s at 2.31 (Two weeks ago it was at 2.78)

But what exactly does this mean? 🤷‍♀️

Well, as MVRV is basically in-between the green and red zones, we’re roughly in the middle of the cycle.

And we’re only just entering “the banana zone” as mentioned earlier…

Which indicates that this bull run still has plenty of steam left. 🚂

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

US DOJ seeks 36-month sentence and $50 million fine for ex-Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. Zhao argued that he is a first-time offender and has cooperated acting in good faith regarding the matter.

39% of Canada’s institutional investors have exposure to crypto. 39% of Canadian institutional investors now directly or indirectly own crypto, according to a survey from KPMG.

Hedera's HBAR Doubles on Misinterpretation of BlackRock Announcement, Then Falls 25%. The market gave back some of its earlier gains after realizing BlackRock wasn't directly involved in the tokenization on Hedera's blockchain.

Successful Hong Kong crypto ETF flows would pale in comparison to US funds. Hong Kong’s regulator is set to allow spot bitcoin and ether ETFs to start trading by the end of the month, according to fund issuers.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Weekly Bitcoin recap

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • Wild Golf (link) - Twice weekly Golf insights & tips

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Which country was first to accept bitcoin as legal tender?

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

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Trivia Answer: D) El Salvado 🥳 

In 2021 El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender.

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