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- 🥜 Banks: BTC to 200k, ETH to 14k
🥜 Banks: BTC to 200k, ETH to 14k
PLUS: More ETF Selling
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
😱 Are the ETFs done?
🏦 Banks like Bitcoin now?
🤑 Bitcoin cost basis
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 8:50am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ARE THE ETFs DONE? 😱
BREAKING: Spot Bitcoin ETFs suffer third straight day of net outflows
What’s going on?
The Bitcoin ETFs have just recorded their third straight day of net outflows with -$261.5 million.
This brings the three day outflow total to $742 million.
But as you can expect, basically all of the outflows are from Grayscale…
It was also a poor day for BlackRock and Fidelity. (by their standards)
Both recording their second lowest inflow days with $49.3 million and $12.9 million respectively.
However, despite three straight days of outflows, the price of Bitcoin reacted positively.
Rising from a low of ~$62,000 all the way to ~$67,000 at the time of writing.
Fingers crossed the ETFs turn this outflow streak around today. 🤞
But even if they don’t, eventually the outflows from Grayscale will be finished. (perhaps just in time for the Bitcoin halving…)
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BANKS LIKE BITCOIN NOW? 🏦
Bitcoin will reach $150,000 before the end of 2024.
It will then set a new high of $250,000 during 2025 before settling around $200,000.
That’s the latest prediction out from Standard Chartered.
Standard Chartered is the 43rd largest bank in the world.
Back in November 2023, they predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 before the end of 2024.
But due to the enormous success of the Bitcoin ETFs, they’ve now increased this prediction by 50% to $150,000.
Their logic is based on gold’s price movements after the gold ETFs launched in the United States.
"We think the gold analogy – in terms of both ETF impact and the optimal portfolio mix – remains a good starting point for estimating the ‘correct’ BTC price level medium-term."
Dotted line was when the GLD gold ETF launched
Extrapolating this out, Standard Chartered explains how Bitcoin can reach $250,000 in 2025:
"If ETF inflows reach our mid-point estimate of $75 billion, and/or if reserve managers buy BTC, we see a good chance of an overshoot to the $250,000 level at some stage in 2025."
They also briefly spoke on the Ethereum ETFs.
If approved, Standard Chartered believes they’ll experience net inflows of $45 billion within the first 12 months.
As a result, they are also predicting Ethereum to hit $8,000 by the end of 2024.
"In 2025, we see the ETH-to-BTC price ratio rising back to the 7% level that prevailed for much of 2021-22… Given our estimated BTC price level of $200,000 at end-2025, that would imply an ETH price of $14,000."
Certainly some bullish price predictions coming out of Standard Chartered.
And a little interesting coming from a bank…
But what do you think? 🤷♀️
Where do you see Bitcoin & Ethereum ending up at the end of 2025?
Let us know in the poll at the bottom of this newsletter. 👇
BITCOIN COST BASIS 🤑
Today we’ll be taking a look at the on-chain cost basis of all investor cohorts.
Here’s how to interpret this chart:
🟠 The Realized Price: average purchase price for the entire Bitcoin supply
🔴 Short-Term Holder Realized Price: average purchase price of coins moved within the last 155 days
🔵 Long-Term Holder Realized Price: average purchase price of coins NOT moved within the last 155 days
🟪 Current price is below all three cost basis models: bottom of the bear market
Here’s the current breakdown:
🟠 The Realized Price: $26,890
🔴 Short-Term Holder Realized Price: $54,482
🔵 Long-Term Holder Realized Price: $20,534
⚫️ Current Price: ~$67,000
On average, all Bitcoin investor cohorts are currently in profit.
But let’s go one step further and calculate the percentage of profit these investor cohorts are in.
🔴 Short Term Holder: 22.98%
🔵 Long Term Holder: 226.29%
As you can see, long-term holders are well into the green.
With unrealized profits this high, it’s only natural that some decide to sell.
With this in mind, we still haven’t seen massive sell-offs from the long-term holders yet.
Prices will have to go much higher before a large portion of them decide to cash in 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
SEC is attempting to classify Ether as a security. An SEC investigation into the Ethereum Foundation could reportedly give the regulator a pretext to define ETH as a security.
The UK is at a turning point in crypto regulation, policymakers say. The UK can learn from what other countries have gotten right — and wrong — with digital asset regulation, policymakers said Wednesday.
BlackRock Enters Asset Tokenization Race With New Fund on the Ethereum Network. The asset management giant also made a strategic investment in asset tokenization company Securitize.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Who is the creator of Bitcoin? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) Satoshi Nakamoto 🥳
Satoshi Nakamoto is the name used by the presumed pseudonymous person or persons who developed Bitcoin.
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HOW DID WE DO? 🤷
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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