GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #923 droppin‘ bombs… 💣🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more reality-checking than a weatherman spotting the studio light before the horizon starts blinking… 📺🌤️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin zips higher to nearly $64,000 as chip rally and yen strength drive gains

For a month, the AI-chip trade fed on crypto.

Every time chip stocks ripped, money drained out of Bitcoin and into semiconductors.

Every time they crashed, they dragged Bitcoin down with them.

Heads crypto lost, tails it lost too.

Today, that finally broke.

Bitcoin pushed to nearly $64K, up around 3.6% on the week. A week that somehow contained an oil shock, a global bond selloff, and two more rounds of US strikes on Iran.

So what finally went right?

Korea. Specifically, SK Hynix.

The memory-chip giant (it makes the high-bandwidth memory that powers AI servers) just pulled off the biggest US listing ever by a foreign company, raising $26.5 billion.

Demand ran seven times deep. It's now the second-largest share sale in history, behind only SpaceX.

That reignited the entire AI trade. South Korea's Kospi jumped more than 4%, chip stocks roared back, and risk appetite came flooding in.

Bitcoin just rode the wave.

Here's the tell, though.

Nothing crypto-native moved the price. No ETF flood, no protocol upgrade, no exchange drama. Bitcoin climbed because the world wants memory chips. It's trading as a high-beta AI proxy now, plain and simple.

And that cuts both ways…

Live by the AI trade, die by it.

MEXC's analyst warned the bounce is running on liquidations, not real buying — "the market can move faster than real demand."

But zoom out, and there's a sturdier story.

Bitwise reckons Bitcoin's floor is rising. This 50% drawdown is the mildest structural bear market on record, against 78% in 2022 and 84% in 2018. Institutions have stopped asking whether crypto survives.

Now they're just asking where to buy. 🚀

The California governor primary is live right now. So is the Texas Senate race, the 2028 presidential field, and the question of whether Taylor Swift releases a song for Toy Story 5.

Political and cultural markets on Kalshi move in real time — as news breaks, odds shift. Which means someone who reads closely, follows polls, and actually pays attention to what's happening has a genuine edge over someone who doesn't.

On Kalshi, information is the advantage. The platform is federally regulated under the CFTC, with no house edge and no restricted winners. Every dollar traded reflects real collective intelligence about what's going to happen.

If you're already following politics and culture closely, Kalshi turns that attention into an asset.

Sign up and start trading the events you're already watching.

Start trading now

_{Trade responsibly.}

Hunter Horsley's Bitwise just published a chart that puts a hard number on how cheap Bitcoin is right now. And the signal is about as clean as they come.

Horsley is the CEO of Bitwise Asset Management, managing over $15 billion in crypto. His team built a model that measures Bitcoin's fair value based on cumulative ETP flows, the actual money that's flowed into Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024.

The logic is simple. Money flowing into ETFs is real, structural demand. Over time, price tracks those flows closely. When price runs ahead of flows, Bitcoin is expensive. When it falls behind, Bitcoin is cheap.

Here's what the model shows:

Look at the bottom panel. That's Bitcoin's deviation from flow-implied fair value. Positive means rich. Negative means cheap.

Right now? Bitcoin is sitting around 30% below what the flows say it should be worth. One of the most negative readings in the entire dataset, matched only by the depths of early 2024 before the last major leg up.

The top panel tells the same story. Price (the green line) has fallen to the very bottom of the model's range, far below the flow-implied fair value sitting up around $100,000.

The takeaway is direct:

The price of Bitcoin has deviated significantly from cumulative ETP flows, which normally imply a higher Bitcoin price. Likely mean reversion incoming. Stack accordingly.

That's the whole thesis. The flows haven't stopped. The demand is still there. Price has simply detached to the downside, and history says these gaps close.

This lines up with everything we've tracked.

Fundamentals up here. Price down there. The rubber band is stretched. 🧲

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of wallets that hold at least some Bitcoin. (anything greater than 0)

This metric offers a bird’s-eye view of user activity and adoption across the Bitcoin network.

But there’s a slight catch…

One wallet does not equal one user. A user can have many wallets.

What matters here is the trend of the chart.

59,314,030 wallets now hold Bitcoin. That's 151,780 more than two weeks ago (59,162,250).

Another fortnight, another record. The holder base has now pushed deeper above 59 million, a level it only crossed last edition.

This makes four straight gains since that brief dip a few editions back - the one that briefly had people wondering if growth was rolling over. It wasn't. It was a single blip in an otherwise relentless climb.

Next marker's already in sight: 59.5 million is barely 186,000 wallets away. At this pace, that falls soon.

New holders keep showing up, no matter what price is doing. 🔥

Ethereum Foundation Turns AI Loose on ETH Network to Find Bugs Before Hackers Do. Ethereum researchers are using AI agents to hunt vulnerabilities before attackers do.

New Hampshire snuffs out trailblazing state-government bitcoin bond effort. The state’s executive council rejected the bitcoin bond project 3-2 at final approval.

Bitdeer stock jumps 14% as company expands US mining hardware production. Bitdeer rallied after announcing a $36M Nevada facility for SEALMINER Bitcoin mining machines.

JPMorgan says bitcoin’s main risk isn’t Strategy, but blockchain adoption that doesn’t benefit public chains and tokens. JPMorgan’s warning is that banks may adopt blockchain infrastructure without sending much value to public chains or tokens.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Moving assets or messages between different blockchain networks. 🥳

Bridges connect otherwise separate networks so users and apps can move value or information across chains. They can be useful, but they also add technical and security risk.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.