🄜 Best time to sell your crypto

PLUS: Big win for crypto

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Today’s edition is brought to you by Incogni.

GM to all 64,612 of you. Crypto Nutshell #328 ploddin’ in... 🦣 šŸ„œ

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more magical than a young girl’s journey down a rabbit hole into a whimsical and chaotic world... šŸ‡šŸŽ©

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • šŸ¤‘ Big win for crypto

  • šŸŒŽ When to sell

  • šŸ’Ŗ Long-term holders

  • šŸ’° And more…

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MARKET WATCH āš–ļø

market data

Prices as at 8:25am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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BIG WIN FOR CRYPTO šŸ¤‘

BREAKING: U.S. Senate Votes to Kill SEC's Crypto Accounting Policy, Testing Biden's Veto Threat

Bitcoin

The US Senate just voted in favour of repealing the SEC’s controversial SAB 121 crypto policy.

The Senate voted 60-38 to overturn the policy.

But what exactly is SAB 121? šŸ¤·ā€ā™€ļø

Here’s the rundown:

The SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB 121), was first published in 2022 and has drawn controversy over the past year over concerns in the crypto industry that it could prevent banks from safeguarding digital assets. It requires firms that custody crypto to record customer crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets.

One of the reasons SAB 121 is so controversial is because it doesn’t apply to traditional assets like stocks.

Senator Cynthia Lumis, who pushed for the resolution in the Senate, had this to say:

This is a win for financial innovation and a clear rebuke of the way the Biden administration and Chair Gary Gensler have treated crypto assets and marks the first time both chambers of Congress have passed standalone crypto legislation,"

Senator Cynthia Lumis

Senator Lumis even updated her Twitter profile picture to include the popular crypto meme ā€œlaser eyesā€.

A clear indication of her support for the crypto industry.

CL tweet

Rep. Mike Flood, another politician who pushed for the resolution, called this decision a ā€œlandmark resultā€:

ā€œIt is clear there is overwhelming opposition to SAB 121, and I urge President Joe Biden to reconsider his previous statement of intent to veto the resolution. The President should sign my resolution to ensure the SEC reverses course and sets America on a path to growing our digital financial future,ā€

Rep. Mike Flood

But it’s not over yet…

Before this decision was made, President Joe Biden vowed to veto the resolution if the Senate voted in favour.

It’ll be interesting to see what Biden actually does…

Regardless though, today is a victory for the crypto industry. 🄳

TOGETHER WITH INCOGNI šŸ•µļø

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WHEN ON EARTH SHOULD I SELL? šŸŒŽ

It’s the most asked question in all of crypto…

When should I sell?

That’s what macro-economic expert Raoul Pal answered in his latest update to investors.

If you’ve been in crypto for long enough, you’ll know that crypto is extremely cyclical.

There’s a 4 year cycle, based around the Bitcoin halving.

seasons4

This 4 year cycle is broken into 4 seasons:

  • 🟩 Crypto Spring

  • 🟨 Crypto Summer

  • 🟄 Crypto Fall

  • 🟦 Crypto Winter

In 3 out of 4 of these seasons, crypto is the best performing asset on earth.

Then in crypto winter, it’s the worst.

On paper, the optimal selling strategy appears obvious:

Exit all of your crypto positions before crypto winter.

Simple, right?

According to Raoul - not quite.

There’s just one problem.

It’s impossible to know when crypto will peak.

ā€œI can't help you with timing the top.ā€

Raoul Pal

Even if you do miraculously nail the top, there’s a problem:

ā€œLet's imagine you get out roughly right. Within 10% - 20% of the high. Let's say you've turned $100 into $1,000. Now you're waiting for the bear market. I will guarantee you will not put the same amount back in. Because you'll be terrified of losing it… before you know you've actually screwed the whole thing up.ā€

Raoul Pal

Instead of trying to time the market, here’s Raoul’s personal plan:

ā€œHere's my suggested path for most people... Usually the back part of the year, after the US election there's a screaming pump into the end of the year. My advice? Use that in terms of time and not price. Take maybe 1/3rd off the table for lifestyle chips… Secure your lifestyle, the things that matter to you. Now you've taken all the pressure off. Now I've de-risked my life so I can now run 2025 more intelligently.ā€

Raoul Pal

Raoul’s predicts that following the US election in November, we’re going to see a huge pump.

The plan?

Take 1/3rd off the table.

Now not only have you taken the pressure off, if there’s a harsh correction, (there always is) you have some dry powder. šŸ’£

Although not for everyone, we think it’s a pretty good plan

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LONG-TERM HOLDERS šŸ’Ŗ

It’s time to check in on the supply of Bitcoin last active 1+ years ago.

We love this chart. It’s so simple to understand and it’s extremely useful.

It categorises coins based on how long it’s been since they last moved on-chain. (as a percentage of the circulating supply)

  • Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins šŸ“ˆ

  • Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins šŸ“‰

Taking a look at the chart below you’ll notice significant dips in these metrics when Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. (especially with the 1+ year age band)

onchain

Here’s the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 2 weeks ago):

  • šŸ”“ Supply last active 1+ years ago: 65.80% (up from 65.68%)

  • 🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 54.81% (up from 54.65%)

  • 🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 46.33% (up from 45.69%)

  • šŸ”µ Supply last active 5+ years ago: 31.19% (down from 31.22%)

Over the last two weeks, the 1+, 2+ and 3+ age bands experienced a slight increase.

BUT, the 5+ age band slightly decreased…

As we mentioned two weeks ago, the sell-offs from long-term holders has slowed down.

Now long-term holders are once again waiting on the price to increase further before taking anymore profits.

BUT, there was a small amount of selling from the 5+ year age band. (nothing too significant though)

All in all, long-term holders still have an extremely high conviction in the future of Bitcoin. šŸ’Ŗ

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🄜

Vanguard's new CEO upholds firm's stance against Bitcoin ETFs despite crypto enthusiasm. Vanguard newly appointed CEO Salim Ramji remains aligned with firm's cautious approach to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF).

Binance develops ā€˜antidote’ to address poisoning scams after $68M exploit. Binance’s new algorithm has already helped detect over 13.4 million spoofed blockchain addresses on BNB and over 1.68 million on Ethereum.

Coinbase Shares Sink 9% on Report CME to Consider Listing Spot Bitcoin. The stock was the second worst performing among crypto stocks on Thursday.

Bitcoin Has Best Day in 2 Months as Markets Anticipate a ā€˜Summer of Easing'. The net percent of global central banks cutting rates is increasing in a positive sign for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

WHAT WE’RE READING šŸ“š

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Weekly Bitcoin recap

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • Wild Golf (link) - Twice weekly Golf insights & tips

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? āœļø

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after ā€œMeme Cornerā€)

What is "Mining" in Bitcoin?

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MEME CORNER šŸ˜‚

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: A) The process of confirming transactions and adding them to the blockchain 🄳 

For more on Bitcoin mining, checkout this article.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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