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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #419 skatin’ by… ⛸️ 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more thrilling than a ride through a haunted amusement park. 🎢👻

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🏦 Is Harris pro crypto?

• 🛍️ Is Bitcoin still cheap?

• 📉 Grayscale outflows won’t stop

• 💰 And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

IS HARRIS PRO CRYPTO? 🏦

BREAKING: Kamala Harris Signals Interest in Friendlier Stance on Crypto: Bloomberg

So an interesting article came out of Bloomberg this morning…

According to the article, Vice President Kamala Harris plans to support the digital asset industry, helping it grow.

This news comes from Brian Nelson, who is the senior advisor for policy under the Harris campaign.

In an interview with Bloomberg at the Democratic National Convention, Nelson had this to say:

Continuing on, Nelson explained the need for regulatory clarity:

The crypto industry has been displeased with the way that the Biden administration has handled crypto. (hostile regulation from the SEC)

And as we reported two weeks ago, there’s been talks of the Democrats attempting to “reset” their approach to crypto.

But as it stands, there’s been no mention of Bitcoin or crypto from the Democrats publicly.

On the other hand…

Donald Trump has spoken about Bitcoin and crypto numerous times.

As has RFK Jr.

We’ve also got a little bonus chart for you this morning.

If you’ve been wondering why we’re talking about the election so much, this ones for you… (don’t worry, we’re not turning into a political newsletter)

The United States election is MASSIVELY important for Bitcoin. (Some even believe the four year cycle is based on the election and not the halving)

The chart below tracks the cycle bottom to the cycle top.

The black line is this cycle. (blue is 2014 - 17 & yellow is 2018 - 21)

Notice how much Bitcoin rips after the US election?

Is it just a coincidence?

Possibly…

But it’s probably not.

If there’s one thing markets hate, it’s uncertainty.

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IS BITCOIN STILL CHEAP? 🛍️

At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin was $42,000.

It is now hovering around ~$60,000, up 44% for the year.

This begs the question, is Bitcoin still cheap?

Well according to the most accurate Bitcoin pricing model…

Yes. Yes it is.

That Bitcoin pricing model is the Bitcoin Power Law Model.

The Bitcoin Power Law model (in a nutshell) is a pricing model that was discovered by an Italian astrophysicist, Giovanni Santostassi.

In 2019, Giovanni discovered that by plotting Bitcoin’s price & time in log scale, you see a very clear relationship:

It’s worth pointing out that power laws are extremely rare…

(if you haven’t seen our interview with Giovanni, check it out here!)

Since discovering it in 2019, the Bitcoin Power Law Model has modelled the price of Bitcoin with 99% accuracy.

So, what does the Power Law Model think the fair price of Bitcoin is today?

The model believes the fair price of Bitcoin right now is: $74,000.

Which means, according to the model, Bitcoin is at a 20% discount. 🔥

So yes, Bitcoin is still cheap.

Now, for your next question…

How high does the Power Law Model predict Bitcoin will get to this cycle?

According to the model, Bitcoin will peak out between $200,000 and $300,000 in 2025.

Let’s hope this 99% accuracy continues until then. 😉 🥂

GRAYSCALE OUTFLOWS WON’T STOP 📉

For a second let’s pretend that Grayscale’s ETHE doesn’t exist…

If that were the case, net inflows into the Ethereum ETFs would be just over $2 billion.

And they’ve only been trading for 4 weeks.

Let’s put that $2 billion into context…

If the Ethereum ETFs were viewed as one, $2 billion would make them the 4th best ETF launch of the year.

The three ETFs above them would all be Bitcoin ETFs. (BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC & ARK’s ARKB)

On it’s own, BlackRock’s ETHA is the 7th most successful ETF launched this year.

But…

Unfortunately Grayscale’s ETHE is a thing we cannot ignore. 😥

And so far it’s experienced net outflows of $2.5 billion.

ETHE has really put a damper on the Ethereum ETFs which have seen net outflows of $458.5 million since launch. (when ETHE is included in the equation)

ETHE’s outflows can also only go on for so long…

With Ethereum’s recent price performance, the fund has ~$4.9 billion in assets under management.

It could be a while before net flows into the Ethereum ETFs turn positive…

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Hackers compromise McDonald’s Instagram account to conduct $700k rug pull. The group identified as India_X_Kr3w managed to snag $700,000 after gradually dumping their GRIMACE holdings.

BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust approaches $1B in net inflows. BlackRock’s Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) has reached approximately $1 billion in net inflows, underscoring its lead among rival ETF ETFs.

RFK Jr. Reportedly Dropping Out of Presidential Race, Mulling Trump Endorsement; Bitcoin Jumps Past $61K. The independent candidate has scheduled a national address for Friday.

New Binance CEO Sees No Need for IPO as He Plots 100-Year Strategy for Crypto Exchange. Richard Teng, who replaced founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao in November, is playing the long game.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

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• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: D) July 2017 🥳

BNB launched in July 2017

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.