- Crypto Nutshell
- Posts
- 🥜 Why is Bitcoin crashing?
🥜 Why is Bitcoin crashing?
PLUS: Ethereum ETFs next week?
Today’s edition is brought to you by Exodus
Trade crypto your way. Fast swaps, thousands of pairs, secure wallet. No account needed. Download Exodus now!
GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #375 celebratin’ freedom.. 🦅 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more explosive than today’s fireworks —wishing everyone a happy 4th of July! 🎆🇺🇸
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🔮 Ethereum ETFs next week?
🔑 Patience is key
🇩🇪 Germany again…
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 7:05am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETHEREUM ETFs NEXT WEEK?🔮
BREAKING: Ethereum ETFs could come as soon as next week as Bitwise files amended S-1 early
Bitwise has filed its amended S-1 form for an Ethereum ETF ahead of the July 8 deadline.
Analysts are now predicting that the ETFs could begin trading within the next 14 days.
Quick reminder - even though the 19b-4 forms were approved on May 23, issuers still have to wait for the SEC to approve their S-1 forms to begin trading.
And these S-1 forms don’t have strict deadlines like the 19b-4’s did.
So everyone is now at the mercy of the SEC… (technically they can take as long as they want to approve these)
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the situation:
“Bitwise just filed amended S-1 for spot Eth.. which wasn't 'due' until July 8th. Prob just wanted to get it off their plate and from what I hear the last round of comments were 'literally nothing' = took zero time to update. Also, no fee yet. Prob get those next week-ish.”
Continuing on, Balchunas explained that the ETFs are basically ready to begin trading.
“No one really knows why the SEC is taking their sweet time with these, given how light comments were, these could have easily been trading by now. Could be one 'problem' issuer slowing down process or just summertime lazy/ppl on vaca. Not sure. That said, all indications launch still on for this month. More details to come next wk.”
Interestingly this amended S-1 form didn’t include any details on Bitwise’s proposed fee.
However, they did disclose a 6 month fee waiver up to $500 million in assets.
We’ve been saying it quite a lot recently…
But not long to go now…
It’s possible that these ETFs begin trading next week.
TRADE CRYPTO YOUR WAY 🤑
The crypto bull run is now well underway.
That means 2 things:
Altcoin Season
Self-Custodying your crypto is more important than ever
To make the most of the bull cycle, you need a wallet that’s fast, effortless & secure.
That’s why Exodus is the only wallet you'll ever need:
Storage – access coins and tokens from 50+ supported networks in one, convenient wallet (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana etc.)
Swaps – in-app swaps allow users to effortlessly exchange crypto for a number of different tokens (100,000+ trading pairs)
Crypto staking – staking options available for a dozen different tokens
Where do you get Exodus?
Easy - It’s available everywhere. We’re talking mobile apps (IOS & Android), desktop apps and browser extensions. Click here to download it in 2 clicks.
The best part?
It’s completely free..
Ready to join the millions of customers who choose Exodus to self-custody their crypto? Download Exodus now!
PATIENCE IS KEY 🔑
We’re still on track for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 this cycle.
That’s the latest BULLISH prediction out from PlanB.
For those of you who don’t know PlanB, he is arguably the most famous on-chain Bitcoin analyst.
With over 1.9 million followers on Twitter, he is most well known for his Stock-to-Flow model and spookily accurate price predictions.
Let’s break down some of the highlights from his latest market update.
Stock-to-Flow Model
Bitcoin closed June at ~$62,000.
And since then, the market has been in a “boring” trading range…
PlanB explains that the price of Bitcoin always lags behind the mode value after a halving.
And it takes up to 18 months before the price reaches the stock-to-flow model predictions again.
“After a halving, the Bitcoin price always lags the model value and the price starts moving a couple of months after the halving and it takes 12-18 months before the price gets to the stock to flow model predictions.”
PlanB’s model is predicting a $500,000 Bitcoin for this cycle, so we’ve got a looong way to go until we reach that…
According to PlanB, during these “boring” times we just need patience. All we can do it wait. 😴
Bitcoin to bounce above $65,000
The Realized price is the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were last moved divided by the circulating supply. (PlanB focuses on Bitcoin’s monthly close price)
🔴 Bitcoin’s current price: $62,000 (June close price)
⚫️ Realized price: $31,000
🔵 2-year realized price: $48,000
(cyan) 5-month realized price: $65,000
Right now, Bitcoin’s current price is below the 5-month realized price.
But PlanB explains that he doesn’t think it’ll be below it for long:
“Bitcoin is a little bit below the 5 month realized price, this 5-month realized price has always served as a support line in bull markets. Bitcoin rarely goes below this line, it sticks to that line. I expect it to bounce from this 5-month realized price up.”
PlanB then explains that what really matters is the general direction of these trend lines.
During bull markets, the 5-month has always been above the 2-year which has always been above the realized price. 🐂
And that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now.
But during bear markets, the 5-month dips below the two year and realized price. This happens during every single bear market. 🐻
So according to PlanB, everything looks normal right now…
“Right now it all looks normal, i expect a bounce from $65,000.”
So PlanB is still confident that we will see a $500,000 Bitcoin this cycle…
But what do you think? 🤷♂️
Will PlanB be right? Or will his model be broken this cycle?
Is the Bitcoin Power Law model the better Bitcoin pricing model?
Let us know in the poll at the bottom of this newsletter. 👇
GERMANY AGAIN… 🇩🇪
The German government continues to unload Bitcoin.
Yesterday we saw the German government sell 832.74 Bitcoin.
But this time, they’ve dumped an additional 3,000 BTC. ($172.5 million at today’s prices)
The wallet associated with the German government transferred 3,000 Bitcoin in four individual transactions:
400 Bitcoin to Coinbase
500 Bitcoin to BitStamp
400 Bitcoin to Kraken
1,700 Bitcoin to an unknown wallet which has previously received funds from the German government
As we mentioned yesterday, the German government initially held 49,858 Bitcoin, worth ~$3 billion at todays prices.
But this recent sell off has seen them dump 9,310 Bitcoin onto the market over the last two weeks. ($536.4 million)
We were expecting more sell-offs from them, just not so soon…
As it stands, the German government now holds 40,358 Bitcoin and they’ll likely continue selling BTC in the short-term.
Bitcoin’s short-term selling pressure is starting to stack up.
Right now we’ve got:
Mt. Gox distributions starting
German government selling
US government selling
Miner capitulation
Bitcoin’s price also reacted negatively to this news, dropping ~4% in the last 24 hours down to ~$57,000.
But as PlanB mentioned in the above section, during times like these patience is the key.
Don’t forget, past bull runs have regularly seen corrections of over -30%.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Bitcoin miners Marathon, Riot double hash rate YoY. Bitcoin (BTC) miners Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms more than doubled their hash rate since June 2023.
What pushed Bitcoin price below $60K? Charts point at potential Mt. Gox repayment. Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since the beginning of June, struggling to gain upward momentum despite positive ETF inflows.
Bitcoin Plunges Under $59K as Crypto Bulls See $230M Liquidations. Solana’s SOL and dogecoin (DOGE) lead losses among major tokens, with the CoinDesk 20 index down 4.8%.
Ethereum Builder Consensys Buys Wallet Guard to Strengthen MetaMask Security. Consensys has been active in the acquisition trail, last year buying blockchain microstructure designer Special Mechanisms Group.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
|
|
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When did Binance's BNB token first launch? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) July 2017 🥳
BNB launched in July 2017
GET IN FRONT OF 64,000+ CRYPTO INVESTORS
Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.
HOW DID WE DO? 🤷
We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)
What did you think of today's Newsletter?Don't worry, you won't hurt our feelings... 🥲 |
NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
*Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid for new users. Crypto investments involve risks; please do your research.
Reply