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- 🥜 Bitcoin Flips Gold
🥜 Bitcoin Flips Gold
PLUS: The path to 1 million
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GM to all 78,179 of you. Crypto Nutshell #518 keepin’ it jolly… 🎅🥜
Merry Christmas from your favorite crypto newsletter! Wishing you a season filled with joy, laughter, and a touch of holiday sparkle... 🎅🎄
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 The path to $1 million
👑 Bitcoin Flips Gold
💪 Not letting go
💰 And more…
Prices as at 2:35am ET
THE PATH TO $1 MILLION 🏦
BREAKING: This is what needs to happen for Bitcoin to hit $1 million
Imagine the day that Bitcoin hits $1 million…
Well that day may be here sooner than you think.
Fund Manager Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will hit this milestone in 2029. (This would mark the top of the next cycle)
And in a recent update, Fred Krueger broke down exactly why this scenario is possible.
Let’s jump in.
What does the Power Law say?
The Power law is one of the most accurate Bitcoin pricing models ever created.
But does a $1 million Bitcoin make sense under the Power Law? (By 2030)
Well yes it does…
Within the next 5 years it’s a little tight but possible. But within the next 10 years it’s basically guaranteed.
Here’s what Fred had to say:
“This does not say we’re not going to get there within 5 years. Within 10 years? I believe we’re absolutely going to get there within 10 years. The Power Law… gives us the green light for getting there.”
The New Administration
Under the Trump administration, Fred is confident we’ll see some form of a Bitcoin strategic reserve:
“It may just be as simple as we designate the current Bitcoin that we own as a strategic reserve. We may get something more like the Cynthia Lummis Bill.”
In 2025, we’ll also be seeing a new SEC Chair.
Under the new SEC, many in the crypto industry are expecting a more favourable regulatory environment for Bitcoin and crypto.
The United States formally announcing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would truly change the game.
And the ripple effect would be crazy…
Other countries aren’t going to sit back and watch the US accumulate Bitcoin.
If this happens, Fred predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of Q1 2025.
Major ETF adoption
The Bitcoin ETFs blew all expectations out of the water…
No one predicted that they’d be this successful. (More on this is next section)
Fred is predicting that 2025 will be an ever BIGGER year for the Bitcoin ETFs, with them possibly surpassing $100 billion in inflows. 🤯
At the end of 2025, Fred predicts that Bitcoin will hit $420,000.
With Bitcoin at $420,000 by the end of 2025, $1 million isn’t that far of a stretch…
Here’s how Fred explains it:
“Let’s just say we have a great year and we’re somewhere around $400,000 at the end of 2025. From there we have four more years to double basically. That does not strike me as being that difficult.”
That doesn’t mean that Bitcoin will continually increase all the way to $1 million.
There will of course be major drawdowns and shakeouts along the way. (like the one we’ve just gone through)
That’s just the way Bitcoin works.
“The power law still holds. The four year cycle dies. If you held on, you did very well.”
$1 million by 2030…
A 10x in 5 years…
We hope you enjoyed your Christmas day hopium…
Merry Christmas from the Crypto Nutshell Team! Wishing you all the best for the new year! 🎅🎄🎁
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BITCOIN FLIPS GOLD 👑
The Bitcoin ETFs just flipped the gold ETFs.
To do that in under a year? Unbelievable.
That’s the latest out from Eric Balchunas.
Eric Balchunas is the Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg. When it comes to all things ETFs, he’s the guy.
Last week, Bitcoin ETFs achieved something incredible: their total assets surpassed those of gold ETFs:
Balchunas later confirmed this as true:
The reason this is so impressive is because gold ETFs were launched in 2004 - 20 years ago.
The Bitcoin ETFs flipped them in less than a year.
It’s worth noting that gold ETFs were groundbreaking in their own right.
Within just three days of its launch, GLD became the fastest ETF to reach $1 billion in assets under management—a record-setting achievement at the time.
But today, the Bitcoin ETFs completely dominate the gold ETFs…
Here’s a quick reminder of what happened to gold prices after the launch of its first ETF:
It kicked off a historic 8-year bull-run…
Makes you wonder… 👀
NOT LETTING GO 💪
Time for a check in on one of our favourite charts.
The supply last active 1+ years ago metric is super simple to understand and extremely useful.
It categorises coins based on how long it’s been since they last moved on-chain. (As a percentage of the circulating supply)
Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈
Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉
Here’s the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 2 weeks ago):
🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 62.27% (down from 62.94%)
🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 53.66% (down from 53.93%)
🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 45.55% (down from 45.96%)
🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.82% (down from 30.93%)
As you can see, all four cohorts experienced minor declines over the last two weeks.
Which lines up with what we explained on Monday:
Long-term holders are currently selling off some of their coins.
But…
We discovered that the majority of this sell-off is coming from the youngest long term holders. (Those who have held Bitcoin for around 1 year)
From the data above, the 1+ age band declined by 0.67% over the past two weeks.
Comparatively, the 5+ year age band only declined by 0.11%.
The true long-term holders are still holding out for higher and higher prices…
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
El Salvador touts Bitcoin success in talks with China. El Salvador shares its Bitcoin achievements with China, hoping to inspire a shift in Beijing's restrictive crypto policies.
Russia Imposes 6-Year Ban on Crypto Mining in 10 Regions, Citing Energy Use. Temporary bans may be imposed in other regions during peak energy demand, Tass reported.
MicroStrategy calls shareholders meeting to fund more Bitcoin purchases. MicroStrategy has submitted a proxy filing with the SEC seeking shareholders approval to boost its Bitcoin's 21/21 Plan.
Why the launch of bitcoin ETF options marks a key milestone for institutional crypto trading. In November 2024, a significant moment in the evolution of institutional crypto trading occurred as options on U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs debuted on Nasdaq.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When did Binance's BNB token first launch? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) July 2017 🥳
BNB launched in July 2017
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