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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #839 gaugin’ the signal… 📟🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more deranged than a theme park where the attractions start hunting the guests… 🎢🤖

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin is up 13% since the war started - while gold, stocks, and tech are all down.

Something is shifting.

Since the Middle East conflict began on February 28, Bitcoin has gained roughly 13%.

Over the same period, gold has fallen about 6%. US equities are down. The tech software sector - which Bitcoin has been glued to for months - is barely up 3%.

For the first time in a long time, Bitcoin is decoupling.

This week alone, BTC climbed 8.5% - its best week since September 2025.

It's now trading around $72,700 and on track for its first positive month since September, ending a five-month losing streak that saw the price fall as much as 50% from October's all-time high.

The buyers are back too.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, pulling in roughly $767 million this week. March inflows now sit at around $1.3 billion — putting them on pace for the first net-positive month since October.

Ether ETFs joined in with $212 million across a four-day streak of their own.

CoinDesk's analysis pointed to something even more interesting. Bitcoin moved before other asset classes when the war broke out.

Now, traditional markets seem to be following its price action - while Bitcoin stays steady. It may be evolving into a 24/7 leading indicator of how global markets respond to macro shocks.

Meanwhile, gold - the classic safe haven - has struggled. A stronger US dollar and rising bond yields have weighed on the metal, even as geopolitical risk escalates. Bitcoin has absorbed the same shocks and come out ahead.

But the mood underneath is still cautious.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in extreme fear. Funding rates are negative, meaning shorts are still paying to hold their positions. The market hasn't flipped bullish - it's just stopped being terrified.

That's a meaningful difference.

Bitcoin isn't in the clear yet.

But it's acting differently. And in a market where everything else is correlated and falling together, different is exactly what investors are looking for. 🚀

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Fred Krueger just called Bitcoin "extremely cheap" at 0.57x its Power Law value.

But it wasn't the tweet that stopped people. It was what he attached to it.

Krueger, the Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader, and co-author of The Big Bitcoin Book, just released a new book: "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat."

And the page he shared might be the most important lesson in crypto right now.

He shared the first page of Chapter 17: The Psychology of Hodling.

In it, Krueger recounts meeting Tom Lee in Bermuda in 2019, where Lee presented an argument that changed how Krueger thought about Bitcoin forever.

Not 10 months. Not 10 weeks. 10 days.

And the data backs it up. From 2017 to 2024, Bitcoin delivered +847% for holders.

Miss the best 10 days? and that turns into -23%.

Miss the best 20 days? -67%.

Miss 30 days?: -84%.

A tiny fraction of trading days account for the majority of Bitcoin's entire long-term returns.

And those days are completely unpredictable.

They happen during Asian hours, on weekends, and most perversely, in the middle of bear markets when sentiment is darkest.

That's the trap.

Every person who sells during a drawdown thinking they'll buy back lower is gambling that they won't miss one of those 10 days.

And historically, that gamble destroys returns.

Krueger put it bluntly:

Bitcoin doesn't take the stairs up. It takes the elevator.

And the elevator doesn't send a notification before it leaves.

At 0.57x Power Law, Krueger is saying the spring is compressed further than almost any point in Bitcoin's history.

The question isn't if the elevator comes. It's whether you're in it when it does. 🚀

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today:

TL;DR: 29.43% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

That's down from 29.94% two weeks ago. The short-term pool keeps draining.

The interesting shift is at both ends.

Daily activity ticked up slightly - a small sign of fresh buying returning. But the 1 day to 1 week and 1 week to 1 month bands both contracted as that supply aged.

The 1-3 month and 3-6 month cohorts both grew, absorbing everything below them. Coins keep migrating up the ladder toward the six-month threshold.

And that's the line that matters. Once they cross it, they become long-term holders - and historically, they don't come back.

Short-term supply shrinking while coins age into stronger hands. Same story, different week. 💎

Billionaire Investor Stanley Druckenmiller Bullish on Stablecoin Growth. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller expects stablecoins to take over payments systems in the next 10-15 years.

These 3 charts show Bitcoin’s war-linked selloff keeps shrinking as Iran conflict worsens. Each escalation in the Iran conflict has been larger than the last, but each bitcoin drawdown has been getting smaller.

Ethereum Foundation sells 5,000 ETH to Tom Lee's BitMine in $10 million OTC deal. The deal is the EF's second known OTC sale to a corporate buyer, following a 10,000 ETH sale to SharpLink Gaming in July 2025.

Bitcoin Whales Are Starting To Accumulate Again at $71K. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said the “recent shift” in accumulation from Bitcoin whales is a “positive reversal” as Bitcoin’s price edges closer to $72,000.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: It embedded a Times newspaper headline about bank bailouts 🥳

Satoshi included the text "Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks" from The Times front page that day. It's widely interpreted as a statement on the failures of traditional banking and the motivation behind creating a decentralised monetary system. The 50 BTC reward from the Genesis Block is also unspendable due to how it was coded.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.