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- 🥜 Bitcoin Is Done
🥜 Bitcoin Is Done
PLUS: Memecoin mania
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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #448 solvin’ the puzzle… 🫶🥜
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
📈 It’s all about the memes
😱 Bitcoin is done
📉 Should we be worried?
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:25am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MEMES 📈
BREAKING: Why memecoins will continue to outperform
Want to hear a crazy stat?
Of the top 300 coins, only 43 have outperformed Bitcoin in 2024.
That’s less than 14%.
What’s even more crazy?
13 out of the top 20 outperformers are memecoins…
This ‘memecoin super cycle’ is likely to continue as well.
Speaking at Token2049, investor Murad Mahmudov broke down why.
Murad explains that essentially every crypto app that has achieved widespread success, is based on speculation.
Examples being; Uniswap, Polymarket, Pump Fun, Jupiter, Rollbit etc.
And Memecoins are speculation in its purest form. (put simply, the crypto community loves to speculate)
Memecoins have already proven that they can achieve insane momentum with DOGE, SHIB, WIF and PEPE all having crazy run-ups.
Memecoins achieving a market cap of $5+ billion or $10+ billion is no longer a joke…
The average retail investor also doesn’t actually care about the underlying technology…
They don’t care which blockchain is the fastest or which chain is slightly more private.
They care about one thing.
And that one thing is: making money.
Murad also raises an interesting point:
The things that outperform in the first half of the cycle are the same things that outperform in the second half of the cycle.
A quick example being Solana during 2020 and 2021:
Solana price performance
Murad explains:
“This momentum is important. And I believe this mememainia we had in March 2024 was just the first of the three pumps. I think there is two giant pumps coming in 2025.”
Murad wrapped up his presentation with some predictions for this cycle:
$1 trillion memecoin market cap (currently ~$40 billion)
2+ memecoins with a market cap greater than $100 billion (currently 0)
10+ memecoins with a market cap greater than $10 billion (currently 2)
25/100 of the home page of CoinMarketCap will be memes (currently 8)
10% memecoin dominance
We highly recommend you checkout the full presentation here.
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BITCOIN IS DONE 😱
The times of Bitcoin outperforming the rest of the market is coming to an end.
Over the next few months & throughout 2025, altcoins will outperform Bitcoin.
That’s the latest prediction out from Benjamin Cowen.
If you don’t know Benjamin Cowen he:
Has a PHD in Nuclear Engineering
Is the founder of blockchain analytics platform, Into The Cryptoverse
Has millions of followers due to his in-depth analysis
In his latest interview, Ben broke down his outlook for crypto, over the next year.
First off, Ben believes Bitcoin is following the exact same playbook of 2019:
“It seems like history has in fact repeated itself. A lot of us get excited and people talk about a ‘left-translated peak’ where Bitcoin's going to go much higher, much sooner than people think. Then the market just sort of fades for a while and people wonder why. Well I I think it's playing out in a very very similar fashion [to 2019].”
If you weren’t in crypto in 2019, this year we’ve been following a very similar path.
In 2019 we saw an initial pump, then months of sideways & downwards price action.
Then, the real fun began in 2020 & 2021.
2019 initial pump, then real pump in 2020 & 2021
So far in 2024 we got an initial pump in March, with a new all-time high.
Then, months of boring & sideways price action.
However, Ben believes this changes in Q4 this year and into 2025.
Although he expects Bitcoin to explode upwards, Ben doesn’t think it will be the best performer:
“I think we're getting to the final part of where Bitcoin outperforms and I think next year you'll actually see altcoins outperform Bitcoin.”
We largely agree with Ben.
Historically, Bitcoin always outperforms in the first half of cycles, then altcoins outperform in the second half.
At the Crypto Nutshell, we primarily cover Bitcoin & Ethereum.
However, we have a track-record of picking altcoins that out perform Bitcoin in cycles.
So, we’d like to hear from you. 🫵
Would you like us to cover altcoins that out perform Bitcoin? |
SHOULD WE BE WORRIED? 📉
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Long / Short-Term Holder Threshold.
Here’s how this metric works:
🔴 Short-Term Holders (STHs): coins that have been held for less than 155 days
🔵 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): coins that have been held for more than 155 days
🟥 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are STHs
🟦 Long-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are LTHs
This metric is extremely powerful as we can see exactly what price STHs and LTHs purchased Bitcoin at. 🔎
The LTH / STH threshold is at 27th April 2024, when Bitcoin was ~$63,500.
All coins purchased before this date are classified as LTHs.
All coins purchased after this date are classified as STHs.
Today there is currently 14,144,017 Bitcoin in the hands of LTHs. (71.58% of the circulating supply) 💪
Whereas the amount of coins held by STHs is only 2,647,090. (13.40% of the circulating supply)
But…
The amount of LTHs has actually began to decrease... (sorta)
Over the last three weeks, the amount of LTHs has decreased by 31,517 BTC.
And the amount of STHs has increased by 61,707 BTC.
However, as you can see from the chart below, this decrease in LTHs is only a minor one.
And since it has already flattened out, we don’t believe this is anything to worry about.
Typically as the price of Bitcoin continues to increase and break all-time highs, we’ll see the amount of LTHs significantly drop.
Right now, the amount of LTHs is still close to it’s all-time high. (14,348,670)
We’ll let you know when the amount of LTHs really starts to drop.
But that makes us a little curious…
Are Crypto Nutshell readers primarily long-term holders or short-term holders?
Let us know in the poll below 👇️
(There’s no wrong answer by the way… Both strategies have their own pros and cons)
Are you a Long-term holder or a Short-term holder?(Bitcoin only) |
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Cantor Fitzgerald CEO says Bitcoin should be treated as a commodity like gold and oil. Howard Lutnick claimed that regulators have "no idea what they are talking about" when is comes to define crypto.
Ethereum underperforms Bitcoin, but is the ETH/BTC pair ripe for a turnaround? Ether’s performance against Bitcoin could pick up over the next few months if the chart patterns play out as expected.
MicroStrategy 2X Leveraged ETF Sees Massive Inflows In First Week Of Trading As MSTR Outperforms Bitcoin. The T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) took in $72 million in the first week of trading, according to data by Bloomberg Intelligence.
BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF surpasses $1 billion in value for the first time. Weekly inflows to US-based spot Ethereum funds were positive for only the second time since the funds launched.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news
Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
|
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is the primary function of a Bitcoin node? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) Storing the blockchain and validating transactions 🥳
The main function of a Bitcoin node is to ensure network transactions and blocks are legitimate and follow the protocol rules.
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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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