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- 🥜 90% chance Bitcoin pumps in 74 days
🥜 90% chance Bitcoin pumps in 74 days
PLUS: Tesla HODL's On
GM to all 14,879 of you. Crypto Nutshell #117 hoppin’ through.🦘🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's more captivating than a forensic anthropologist solving crimes from skeletal remains... 💀🔍
Today, we’ll be going over:
💎 Tesla still HODLing
💣 90% chance Bitcoin explodes by this date
🤔 Is this time really going to be different?
🤑 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:50am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
TESLA STILL HODLING 💎
BREAKING: Tesla reports no Bitcoin sales in Q3
Today, Tesla released their Q3 financial report. According to this report, Tesla did not buy or sell any Bitcoin. Their total Bitcoin holdings are 9,720 BTC.
Another quarter of zero Bitcoin activity for Tesla. In fact they haven’t bought or sold any Bitcoin since Q2 2022.
In case you’re wondering why we’re talking about Tesla and Bitcoin, here’s a quick summary of their history:
February 2021: Tesla announces that they purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. They also announced that they would begin accepting Bitcoin as payment. Bitcoin’s price exploded 🚀
May 2021: Elon Musk has a change of heart and sells 4,320 BTC. The stated reason was the fossil fuel consumption of Bitcoin miners. They also backtrack on accepting Bitcoin as payment
Q2 2022: Tesla sells 75% of remaining Bitcoin at a 48% price loss. Bitcoin’s price crashes 📉
Elon Musk has since come forward saying Tesla’s sale shouldn’t be viewed as “some verdict on Bitcoin”.
They were just in need of some cash as the global pandemic was worsening (classic COVID excuse).
Surprisingly, Tesla’s Bitcoin stash is still the third largest of any public company’s. 💰
Top 10 holdings by public companies
Since 2021, Investors have been keeping a close watch on Tesla’s Bitcoin holdings. Their initial purchase was what led to Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high back in 2021.
Will Tesla bring back Bitcoin payments?
Only time will tell. 🔮
TOGETHER WITH THE EDGE 🤖
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90% CHANCE BITCOIN EXPLODES BY THIS DATE 💣
Bloomberg ETF analysts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have their eyes on January 10, 2024. 👀
Why?
They have 90% approval odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF by this date.
Why January 10th?
That’s the final deadline for ARK Invests ETF application, who are first in line.
Another sign that the ETF is closer than ever is recent communication between fund managers and the SEC.
In the past, the SEC has outright denied applications.
But recently the SEC has been in contact with ARK Invest & 21Shares resulting in an update to their application.
These updates signal constructive conversations with the SEC. This only happens when a fund is on its way to approval.
Commenting on this yesterday was ARK Invest CEO, Cathie Wood:
“It was publicized and disclosed last week that we had responded to the request for information around our Bitcoin filing. We responded and that’s all we can say.”
Cathie Wood also claimed hopes are rising of many ETF’s being approved at once:
“I think many people think the fact that the S.E.C chose to ask questions is a change in behavior and therefore I do think hopes are rising that a, or a number or Bitcoin ETFs will be approved.”
Reading between the lines, Cathie seems very optimistic at approval in the short term.
Keep in mind, January 10th is merely a deadline.
The ETF approval news could drop at any moment… 💣
IS THIS TIME REALLY GOING TO BE DIFFERENT? 🤔
Popular technical analyst CryptoCon has just published the most interesting chart we have seen in ages (go give them a follow on Twitter).
CryptoCon calls this chart The Halving Cycles Theory. It’s based of the date of the first halving (Nov 28th, 2012) and the second halving (July 9th, 2016).
Each coloured dot corresponds to a cycle milestone:
Cycle Bottoms 🟢: +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, beginning of green year
First Early Top 🟡: +/- 21 days from July 9th in green year
Second Early Top 🟣: +/- 21 days from July 9th in blue year
Cycle Tops 🔴: +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, end of red year
The error boundaries are exactly the same for each marker (21 days)…
Take a minute to soak in the chart below. The similarities between cycles is almost scary…
CryptoCon also has a contrarian view to most. They believe that Bitcoin’s cycles are programmed in. Not even the ETF approvals will break this model.
“I don't think ETFs will break the cycles, this time is not different.”
If the model holds true, this is what to expect:
Next early top to be +/- 21 days from July 9th, 2024 😁
Next cycle top will be +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, 2025 👀
Next cycle bottom will be +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, 2026 😥
CryptoCon finishes with the following quote:
“The halving is programmed, and so are these Bitcoin cycles"
Definitely an interesting chart / take.
Mark those dates down in your calendars. We’ll be checking back in on this model as they approach…
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
During October 2021 a token named after a popular Netflix show at the time, famously rose 23 million percent in one week and then immediately crashed to zero. What was the name of this token?
A) You
B) Squid
C) Shameless
D) Arcane
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) Squid 🥳
Named after the popular Netflix show Squid Game, the value of Squid coin collapsed from a high of just over $2,860 to effectively zero as cryptocurrency traders watched the token’s unknown creators clean out some $3.3 million in funds.
Checkout the live reaction to the rug pull. 🤣
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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