GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #821 catchin’ the signals… 🛰️🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more ruthless than a family empire fighting for control behind closed doors… 🏛️🔥

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Abu Dhabi's sovereign funds doubled down on Bitcoin while the market sold off

While a lot of investors have been heading for the exits…

Abu Dhabi has been making some pretty big moves.

SEC filings this week revealed that Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments - two of Abu Dhabi's government-backed funds - held a combined $1 billion in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) at the close of 2025.

That headline number is impressive, but we need to add a little more context.

Mubadala added nearly 4 million shares of IBIT during Q4 - a 46% increase - while Bitcoin was falling 23% in the same period.

That's a sovereign wealth fund making a deliberate, long-term bet into weakness. (aka buying the dip)

But here's the reality check: that $1 billion position is now worth around $800 million.

Bitcoin is down another 23% year-to-date in 2026, and the broader ETF market has shed more than $21 billion in AUM since January.

So the scoreboard, for now, is ugly.

Still, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, pushed back on the narrative that ETF holders are driving the sell-off.

His read: IBIT investors aren't the ones selling. They're holding.

That largely tracks with what the filings show.

For the most part, these funds aren't trimming - they're adding.

Sovereign capital, with multi-decade time horizons, is treating this drawdown as an entry point, not an exit.

That doesn't mean the bottom is in.

ETF outflows are real, retail is quiet, and macro headwinds haven't fully cleared.

But when Abu Dhabi is buying while everyone else is selling, it's at least worth asking: who's going to look smarter in 12 months? 🚀

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That's not a number pulled out of thin air.

That's straight from Raoul Pal. Former Goldman Sachs macro trader. Founder of Real Vision. A man who tracks global liquidity the way most people check the weather.

And in his latest interview, he didn't mince words.

Let that sink in.

According to Pal's liquidity models, the same ones that have tracked the Nasdaq almost perfectly, Bitcoin is massively undervalued right now.

The Nasdaq followed the liquidity script. Bitcoin didn't. And that gap is the opportunity.

Pal explained that the underperformance wasn't a fundamental failure. It was technical.

Specific events throughout 2025 knocked Bitcoin off its expected trajectory. Without those disruptions, we'd be looking at a very different number right now.

So what does this mean?

It means Bitcoin isn't overpriced. It's not even fairly priced. According to one of the sharpest macro minds in the game, it's trading at a significant discount to where liquidity says it should be.

Markets don't stay disconnected from liquidity forever. They always catch up. Sometimes slowly. Sometimes all at once.

And right now, Bitcoin has a lot of catching up to do. 🚀

Today we're looking at BTC Risk - a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.316 (Two weeks ago: 0.351)

Another drop…

We've pushed deeper into low-risk territory, now well below the 0.5 line.

Still above the panic zones of deep bear markets, but closing the gap. What does that mean?

The risk/reward is tilting in favour of buyers. We're not at generational lows yet - those typically flash below 0.2 - but we're moving in that direction.

If BTC Risk continues drifting toward 0.2, this becomes a serious accumulation opportunity. 📊

Abu Dhabi funds held over $1 billion of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF at end of last year. Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments owned over 20 million shares in BlackRock's BTC exchange-traded fund in Q4.

Stripe's stablecoin firm Bridge wins initial approval to form national bank trust charter. The license would allow Bridge to issue and manage stablecoins under direct federal oversight.

BlackRock, Coinbase to keep 18% of Ethereum staking revenue in new ETF. BlackRock and Coinbase will take an 18% cut of staking revenue from ETHB. It is well-positioned to become the largest Ethereum ETF on the market.

Strategy and Bitmine Expand BTC, ETH Holdings Amid Market Slump. Strategy bought 2,486 BTC and Bitmine added 45,759 ETH, deploying about $260M as crypto prices slide. Both expand treasuries despite market weakness.

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Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: May 22, 2010 🥳

May 22, 2010 is now celebrated annually as "Bitcoin Pizza Day" to commemorate Laszlo Hanyecz's purchase of two Papa John's pizzas for 10,000 BTC.

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