GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #849 dustin' off the ledger… 📒🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more devious than a con artist who just convinced a whole city the lie was their idea… 🎩🪄

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: 'More room to fall': Bitcoin trades near $67,000 as US-Iran deadlock persists

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 9…

That's near-capitulation…

Bitcoin is trading around $67,400 - down from $71,000 last week and $76,000 the week before.

The Iran conflict has entered its fifth week with peace talks stalled.

Oil is climbing again. US gas prices are about to break $4 a gallon.

Trump is reportedly weighing a military operation to extract uranium from Iran.

Stocks opened lower on Sunday night.

The mood is about as bleak as it gets.

And yet… the institutions aren't flinching.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted over $1.13 billion in monthly inflows - their first positive month in four.

Strategy keeps buying.

And Morgan Stanley just set a 0.14% fee on its upcoming Bitcoin ETF - the cheapest on the market, undercutting BlackRock, Fidelity, and even Grayscale's Mini Trust.

Bloomberg's Seyffart expects a launch in early April.

That's the world's biggest advisor network - 16,000 advisors managing $9.3 trillion - about to get the lowest-cost Bitcoin product available.

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BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas put the divergence bluntly: "When retail fear and institutional accumulation diverge this sharply, history suggests the institutions tend to be right."

Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas framed it another way.

Bitcoin right now, he said, feels like when your parents joined Facebook. It's "not cool anymore."

But Facebook went from 1 billion to 3 billion users after the coolness wore off.

Could Bitcoin still drop to $60,000 if the conflict gets worse?

Several analysts think so. The macro is still messy and the headlines keep changing by the hour.

But underneath the fear, the structural bid is building. And the people deploying the most capital aren't waiting for the all-clear.

They're already in. 🚀

One more thing before you keep reading todays newsletter…

We want to hear from you. As we head into Q2, we're looking for your honest feedback on Crypto Nutshell. Drop your thoughts in the poll below. 👇

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The President of the United States just said the word "Bitcoin" on a global stage. Again.

Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) PRIORITY Summit in Miami on March 27, Donald Trump made his most direct statement yet on where he sees crypto in America's future.

Here’s exactly what he said:

This is the same man who in 2021 called Bitcoin "not money, it's a scam."

Now he's calling it powerful. On stage. In front of some of the most influential investors and policymakers on the planet. At a summit run by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund.

And he wasn't just talking. He framed it as a matter of national security.

That's not a casual endorsement. That's geopolitical framing.

The U.S. President is telling the world that Bitcoin and crypto are a competitive battlefield, and America intends to win.

And the actions are backing up the words:

Trump also laid out his philosophy plainly:

Whether you agree with the politics or not, the reality is undeniable.

The most powerful office in the world is now actively, publicly, and aggressively championing Bitcoin and crypto.

That's not something to ignore. That's something to position for. 🚀

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins - with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today, we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs) - defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today:

TL;DR: 28.11% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders.

Down from 29.43% two weeks ago. That's a 1.32% drop - the largest two-week contraction we've seen in this stretch.

Almost every band is shrinking.

Daily activity cooled. The 1 week to 1 month group shed over half a percent. The 1-3 month band contracted. Even the 3-6 month cohort - the last stop before long-term holder status - is draining.

The only band that grew was the 1 day to 1 week window, suggesting a small burst of fresh activity. But that supply is already aging forward.

Where is it all going? Across the six-month line. Into long-term holder territory. Out of the reactive pool and into the hands that don't sell on headlines.

Short-term supply is compressing at an accelerating pace. The pool of coins available to panic sellers gets smaller every two weeks. 💎

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Dumps Meta, Nvidia and Bitcoin ETF Shares in Major Tech Sell-Off. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest sold big chunks of its positions in American tech stocks and its own Bitcoin ETF as stocks and crypto slide.

Ethereum Builders Propose ‘Economic Zone’ to Fix L2 Fragmentation. Gnosis and Zisk propose the Ethereum Economic Zone to unify fragmented layer-2 networks, as debate grows over rollups, interoperability and scaling.

MSTR may have paused it's BTC accumulation last week. The company seemed to have skipped it's weekly bitcoin purchase announcement for the first time since late december.

Sen. Warren targets Bitmain-Trump family ties in letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick. The Department of Homeland Security has probed whether Bitmain's popular mining machines could be exploited for espionage or endanger the U.S. grid.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: How to reach consensus among distributed parties who may not trust each other 🥳

Bitcoin's proof-of-work mechanism solved this decades-old computer science problem by allowing trustless participants to agree on the state of a shared ledger without needing a central authority.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.