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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #603 keepin’ hot… 🌋🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more powerful than a young lion reclaiming his throne under the circle of life... 🦁👑

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🤔 Cycle top?

• 🚀 Bitcoin To $250,000 This Year

• 💪 HODL mode

• 💰 And more…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

CYCLE TOP? 🤔

BREAKING: Bitcoin Eyes $139K by Year-End Amid Macro Resilience and On-Chain Strength

Bitcoin is roughly 20% down from its all-time high…

And some are starting to worry that the bull run might even be over…

But according to 21Shares, this pullback isn’t a warning sign.

It’s a familiar pattern - a mid-cycle reset that sets the stage for higher highs.

Their analysis of six major crypto crises reveals five key takeaways that tell us where we are now - and where Bitcoin might be headed next.

(Thos six major crises being: COVID-19, China ban, Russia - Ukraine, Terra Luna, FTX & Silicon Valley Bank)

Let’s break it down. 👇

1. Bitcoin reacts differently to macro shocks vs. crypto failures 🧠

Macro shocks (like rate hikes or SVB) tend to spark fast sell-offs - but also fast recoveries.

In some cases, the shocks even reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a hedge.

Crypto-native blowups (like exchange hacks) hit harder… but even those no longer shake long-term confidence like they used to.

2. The “hedge” narrative is finally clicking 🛡️

Bitcoin’s behaviour during the SVB collapse was a turning point.

Bitcoin rallied while TradFi panicked.

The “hedge against uncertainty” narrative is catching on.

In places like Argentina and Turkey, where fiat is collapsing, Bitcoin adoption is surging.

3. Industry failures don’t damage Bitcoin anymore 🔒

Remember the ByBit hack earlier this year?

Historically, events like that would crush sentiment - this time it didn’t…

The market now sees the difference between protocol risk and platform risk.

When platform hacks like this occur, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain firmly untouched.

4. This looks a lot like 2021 🔁

21Shares believes that this current drawdown shares a lot of similarities with the 2021 cycle.

Back then, China’s mining ban triggered a major correction… but didn’t end the cycle.

This time it’s macro-policy fatigue.

5. The rest of the year still looks bullish 📈

On-chain indicators are flashing accumulation. (More on this later)

Liquidity (global M2) is rising.

And with ETF inflows, TradFi integration, and regulatory clarity all improving, momentum is building.

Unless we see a true black swan event, 21Shares maintains a $138,555 price target by year-end. 🤑

The Bottom Line

This isn’t the top.

It’s the foundation for what comes next.

And the second half of this cycle could still surprise us all. 🚀

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BITCOIN TO $250,000 THIS YEAR 🚀 

Yes, you read that right.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson just went on CNBC and dropped a bombshell:

That’s not a small prediction.

That’s a 3x from current levels… in less than 9 months.

What’s the catalyst?

Hoskinson thinks Trump’s tariffs and the U.S. - China trade war will be the spark:

In other words:

• Tariffs create global economic friction 🧱

• Traditional markets panic ⚠️

• Capital goes looking for safety 🧭

• And Bitcoin becomes the obvious escape valve 🛸

The more friction between superpowers, the more useful a neutral, non-sovereign monetary network becomes.

That means Bitcoin.

And Hoskinson isn’t some Bitcoin maxi.

He’s the founder of Cardano, one of the largest altcoins in the world.

In a sense, it’s a competitor of Bitcoin.

But even he sees it coming:

Bitcoin’s time has come.

When the heads of major altcoin projects are calling a 3x for BTC before year’s end…

You know the tidal wave is building. 🌊

HODL MODE 💪

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

As always, we’re focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s the current breakdown compared to two weeks ago:

• 6m - 12m: 9.71% (up from 7.94%)

• 1y - 2y: 11.72% (up from 11.63%)

• 2y - 3y: 8.29% (up from 8.26%)

• 3y - 4y: 8.02% (down from 8.43%)

• 4y - 5y: 7.82% (up from 7.46%)

• 5y - 10y: 14.81% (down from 14.90%)

• >10y: 9.23% (up from 9.21%)

TL;DR: 69.60% of all Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over six months

That's also a 1.77% increase from our last check-in…

Key takeaways:

• The “younger” LTHs (6m–12m band) saw a significant increase of 1.77%, the largest of any age group

• Most older bands are growing or holding steady, reinforcing a slow and steady accumulation trend.

• The 3y–4y and 5y–10y bands dipped slightly, suggesting some rotation or modest profit-taking, but nothing alarming.

Since mid-March, the amount of long-term held Bitcoin has been steadily increasing.

This is exactly what you want to see in a healthy market:

• Supply tightening

• Holder conviction growing

• No signs of widespread distribution

Still early. Still strong. Still firmly in HODL mode. 💪

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Bankless' founder on turning the ‘gargantuan ship of Ethereum’ around. In "Ethereum’s Strategic Pivot," David Hoffman of Bankless explores how the Ethereum community is rallying to correct its course.

XRP Price Coiled for a Significant Move as Key Volatility Indicator Mirrors 2024 Patterns. A standard deviation-based indicator points to renewed volatility explosion in XRP and BTC.

Over 13K institutions exposed to Strategy as Saylor hints at BTC buy. According to data from SaylorTracker, Strategy is up over 25% on its Bitcoin investment, amounting to over $9 billion in unrealized gains.

Charles Schwab CEO says spot crypto trading will 'likely' launch within 12 months. "As I’ve said numerous times in past, spot crypto trading will be table stakes for every major brokerage," ETF Store president Nate Geraci said.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

• Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news

• Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Unknown 🥳

Despite endless theories, Satoshi’s true identity remains a mystery to this day — and their coins still haven’t moved. 👻

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HOW DID WE DO? 🤷

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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.