🥜 Bold Prediction

PLUS: FBI gets involved

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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #458 goin’ undercover…  🥸🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more adventurous than searching for lost treasure with a whip in hand... 🏺🗺️

jones

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🏦 FBI gets creative

  • 🐇 Straight to $100,000

  • 📉 Exchange balances going down

  • 💰 And more…

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MARKET WATCH ⚖️

market data

Prices as at 3:40am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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FBI GETS CREATIVE 🏦 

BREAKING: FBI creates bogus crypto to nab 4 companies, 14 people on fraud charges

Scammer

US prosecutors have just charged 4 crypto companies and 14 different people with fraud and market manipulation.

The companies charged include; Gotbit, ZM Quant, CLS Global and MyTrade as well as their leadership teams and employees.

And the scam that these companies conducted was a crypto all-time classic:

The Pump and Dump

These companies carried out wash trades to create the illusion of trading activity.

Investors would then think these tokens were good investments, which resulted in the price of the tokens increasing. (The Pump)

The companies would then sell their tokens at the artificially set high price. (The Dump)

Which then resulted in the complete collapse of these cryptocurrencies.

United States Attorney Joshua Levy put out the following statement:

"These are cases where an innovative technology – cryptocurrency – met a century old scheme – the pump and dump. The message today is, if you make false statements to trick investors, that’s fraud. Period. Our Office will aggressively pursue fraud, including in the cryptocurrency industry.”

Joshua Levy

But here’s the insane part…

As part of the investigation, the FBI created a fake crypto company called NextFundAI.

This company had a token on Ethereum.

And prosectors claim that ZM Quant, CLS Global and MyTrade agreed to help manipulate the token.

Jodi Cohen, special agent in charge of the FBI, Boston Division had this to say:

“The FBI took the unprecedented step of creating its very own cryptocurrency token and company to identify, disrupt, and bring these alleged fraudsters to justice."

Jodi Cohen

Deputy director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement Sanjay Wadhwa put out the following statement:

“Today’s enforcement actions demonstrate, once more, that retail investors are being victimized by fraudulent activity by institutional actors in the markets for crypto assets… With purported promoters and self-anointed market makers teaming up to target the investing public with false promises of profits in the crypto markets, investors should be mindful that the deck may be stacked against them.

Sanjay Wadhwa, deputy director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement

Investing in crypto is a risky game.

Especially when it comes to investing in small cap altcoins.

That’s why we always recommend that you keep 70-90% of your portfolio in the big three; Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

That way, at most you’re only putting 10-30% of your total portfolio into the ultra risky plays.

Stay safe out there. 🫡 

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STRAIGHT TO $100,000 🐇

If Donald Trump wins the election, Bitcoin is going straight to $100,000+.

That’s the latest out from mathematician, Fred Krueger.

fred1

An easy one for you today:

Krueger has made it clear that he is a single-issue voter. He is a Bitcoiner and wants the price of Bitcoin to go up.

The means he wants the more pro-Bitcoin candidate to win. So far, Trump is by far the more pro-Bitcoin candidate.

So much so, Krueger believes Bitcoin immediately goes to $100,000+ on a Trump win:

trump1

The good news for Bitcoiners?

On prediction markets, Trump is pulling away:

poly1

The boost comes following a glowing endorsement of Trump from Elon Musk:

trump1

Elon endorses Trump at Pennsylvania rally

A $100,000 Bitcoin immediately after a Trump victory is a bold prediction.

Perhaps, a touch too bold.

However, Bitcoin will undoubtedly get a boost if he wins.

Last week we asked you guys who you thought would win the election. 🫵

Here are the results:

odds12

Crypto Nutshell readers are more confident in Trump with 71.5% of readers believing he will win on November 5th.

Only 26 days left until we all know what happens.

Not long to go now… 👀

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EXCHANGE BALANCES GOING DOWN 📉

Time for a check in on the amount of Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

  • Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂

  • Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

onchain

Currently there is 12,394,852 Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

That’s ~10.31% of the entire circulating supply.

Which is actually nuts when you really think about it…

Year-to-date this metric has fallen by 1,785,624 ETH. (~$4.23 billion at todays prices)

So as it stands, ~89.69% of the circulating Ethereum supply is not on an exchange.

And instead being held by long-term holders.

Bodes well for future price action. 🚀 

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

VanEck portfolio manager says crypto projects should emulate key memecoin traits. Simplicity on token launches is one of the key traits from memecoins that can be drawn by crypto projects, Pranav Kanade said.

Bitcoin ETF options expected by Q1 2025: Bloomberg analyst. Options on Bitcoin ETFs could speed up adoption among financial advisers, James Seyffart said at Permissionless.

Bitcoin Trapped Between 50 and 200-Day Averages as Bond Market Volatility Spikes, China Stocks Slide. China's Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.6%, ending a ten-day winning streak.

VanEck enters crypto VC space, seeks $30 million for first fund. VanEck, a global investment management giant overseeing more than $118 billion in assets, has entered into the venture capital space with the launch of VanEck Ventures.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news

  • Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

In order to comply regulations, crypto exchanges must gather specific information about their customers. This process is typically known as:

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: C) KYC 🥳

Know Your Customer is a process that cryptocurrency exchanges must use to: Confirm their end users' and customers' personal information.

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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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