GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #99 waddlin' in… 🐧🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re looking to play the second-half of this bull run.

And in case you missed last week's Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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Bitcoin's at $84,638, up 0.8% on the week.

Ethereum's at $2,681, down 0.4%.

That flat finish hides the busiest macro week in a while.

The US economy sent its clearest signal in months that the Fed can stop raising rates, the odds of an October hike collapsed from about 70% to under 20%, and Bitcoin ran to around $87,000 on the news.

Then it gave the whole move back inside an afternoon.

Bitcoin's spent a month waiting for the Fed threat to ease, and this week it did, but the bond market didn't go along with it.

On Wednesday, August's PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) came in cooler than forecast, with the core reading at 3.0% against 3.3% expected.

Then on Friday the September jobs report showed just 29,000 new jobs, a long way short of the roughly 85,000 to 90,000 economists had pencilled in.

Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, wage growth slowed to 0.1% for the month, and the two months before were revised down by about 60,000 jobs between them, with July now showing a loss.

Cooling jobs and cooling inflation in the same week is the mix that takes an October hike off the table.

Last week, CME FedWatch had the odds of another hike in October near 75%.

By Friday morning they'd fallen to somewhere between 13% and 18%, depending on which hour you checked.

The threat hasn't vanished for the rest of the year, though, with CoinDesk putting the odds of no more hikes at all in 2026 at only about 25% right after the report.

Traders had already been paying up for bullish bets going into the print, with funding rates on perpetual futures (the fee leveraged longs pay to keep a bet open) jumping from about 3% to 10% annualized in two days.

When the number dropped, more than $120 million of shorts got liquidated and Bitcoin pushed to around $87,000, near its best level since January.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves with what traders expect from the Fed, dipped to about 4.7%, down from 4.92% on Monday.

That's the textbook reaction to a Fed that's backing off, and for about an hour it looked like the ceiling over Bitcoin had finally lifted.

Then the 10-year yield took over…