GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #804 bringin’ the signals… 🚦🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more dangerous than a con artist running ten steps ahead of everyone chasing him… 🎩💣

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin slides near $87,000 as US government shutdown fears weigh on crypto

Bitcoin slipped below $87,000 over the weekend as shutdown fears hit crypto markets. (here we go again…)

The trigger: Senate Democrats said they would block a major spending bill if it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

The standoff raises the risk of another partial government shutdown - just months after the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

Polymarket odds for a shutdown by January 31st jumped from under 10% on Saturday to 76% by Sunday night.

The damage so far

Around $100 billion was wiped from the total crypto market cap in just six and a half hours on Sunday.

Bitcoin dropped 3.4% in 24 hours. Ethereum fell harder, down over 5%.

Liquidations piled up again. Over $360 million in leveraged positions were flushed, with $324 million of that coming from longs.

ETF flows tell the same story

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted their worst week since February 2025. Net outflows hit $1.32 billion for the week ending January 23rd.

"Institutional demand looks cautious but targeted," said Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research. "Broad outflows signal risk-off sentiment."

What's ahead this week

And the rest of the week should be big…

The Fed announces its first rate decision of the year on Wednesday.

Markets are expecting rates to stay unchanged - but all eyes will be on what Chair Powell says after.

Earnings season heats up too.

Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple all report this week.

And with Bitcoin trading like a risk asset, big tech results could move crypto as well.

Add in Trump's latest tariff threats against Canada and rising tensions in Japan's currency markets - and there's plenty of fuel for more volatility ahead. 🚀

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When Cathie Wood speaks about Bitcoin, you listen.

She was one of the first institutional investors to buy Bitcoin publicly, purchasing it when it was around $200-$300 - a pretty insane call in retrospect.

Her latest call? The bottom is in.

In ARK Invest’s latest 2026 Big Ideas update, Cathie laid out what she thinks just happened in Bitcoin:

That’s a big call.

As we know, for years, the 4-year cycle framed everything.

Blow-off top, brutal drawdown, long rebuild. Rinse, repeat.

Cathie’s view now is that framework is done.

She’s not calling a straight line higher. Bitcoin could chop around the $80k–$90k range for a while.

But beyond that, her view is clear: the next real move is up, and the bottom is likely already in.

She’s now saying the same thing as a growing group of institutional investors who think 2026 is an up year.

At some point, it stops being contrarian.

Are you starting to believe? 👀

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 6.12% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

That's up from 68.42% two weeks ago. Basically unchanged.

The story here is steady accumulation.

The 6-12 month cohort jumped 0.58% as coins aged into this band. The 1-2 year group ticked up slightly as well.

The mid-cycle bands (2-5 years) saw minor rotation - some trimming, nothing dramatic.

But the deep storage bands tell the real story.

The 5-7 year cohort dropped slightly, but the 7-10 year group absorbed that supply and more, jumping 0.21%. The 10+ year supply pushed to a new high at 17.07%.

This is what conviction looks like.

Coins quietly aging into deeper dormancy whilst short-term traders churn.

Bottom line: supply keeps tightening, long-term holders aren't flinching, and the base keeps strengthening. 💎

Why Silver's Surge Echoes Crypto Altcoin Season: Bitwise Exec. The same dynamic that drove investors toward NFTs and altcoins is currently playing out with gold and silver, said Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

Saylor Says 'Opportunists' Pushing for BTC Changes Are Its Biggest Threat. Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor warned that "ambitious opportunists" advocating for major protocol upgrades are a major threat to the Bitcoin network.

The big U.S. crypto bill is on the move. Here is what it means for everyday users. For those who don't have the compass and the time to track Congress through its arcane procedures, here's what's likely to affect you if a bill passes. Or doesn't.

Ethereum whale resurfaces after nine years, moves $145 million in ETH. An Ethereum whale moved 50,000 ETH on Sunday after approximately nine years of dormancy, according to onchain data.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: 2021 🥳

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.