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BREAKING: Bitcoin climbs toward $64,000 as June CPI falls 0.4% in largest monthly drop since 2020

Bitcoin shrugged off a war. It didn't shrug off this.

June inflation came in cold. Really cold…

Consumer prices fell 0.4% on the month, the sharpest drop since April 2020, when economists had penciled in a 0.1% dip.

Annual inflation slid to 3.5% from 4.2%.

Core inflation (the version that strips out food and energy, and the one the Fed actually watches) came in flat.

Bitcoin's reply was instant. Up 4.5% on the day, punching through $64K to around $64,900.

Which tells you everything about what's driving this market.

For weeks Bitcoin sat stone-faced through airstrikes, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and oil spikes.

One inflation print and it moves 4.5% in an afternoon. It's not trading the war. It's trading the Fed, exactly as we've been saying.

And the vice just loosened.

July hike odds had rocketed to 42% from 8% a month ago.

Bond yields dropped hard on the news.

Fed Governor Chris Waller had all but promised a hike if this print ran hot… and it did the opposite.

Look at what actually killed inflation: energy prices, down 5.7%. Gasoline down 9.7%.

That's June.

When the ceasefire held and oil had sunk back near prewar levels.

Since then?

The ceasefire collapsed, the US has struck Iran four times, Hormuz is contested, and oils back above $80.

So this print is a snapshot of a peace that no longer exists.

Warsh isn't buying it either.

Testifying to Congress hours after the data, the Fed chair flatly refused to celebrate.

"There might be some that look at this morning's data and say, 'mission accomplished.' That is not my view."

No forward guidance, no hints, and half his committee still pencilling in higher rates by year-end.

Traders still price a September hike.

So Bitcoin got the print it wanted.

The question is whether July's oil hands it all straight back. 🚀

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Add another major name to the list calling the low. And this one comes with a chart most people aren't watching.

Cathie Wood is the founder and CEO of ARK Invest, one of the most closely followed growth investors in the world and a long-time Bitcoin bull with a $1.5 million price target by 2030.

And in her latest update to investors, she called the Bitcoin bottom.

What she's looking at isn't Bitcoin's dollar price. It's the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. How many ounces of gold one Bitcoin buys.

That ratio has been falling as gold ripped and Bitcoin sold off. It's the exact chart the bears have been waving around all year as proof Bitcoin lost its store-of-value crown.

Now gold is rolling over, and the ratio is turning.

Her read on it:

That last part matters. Volatile, but broad uptrend. She isn't promising a straight line. She's saying the structural trend, the one that's held since 2015, is intact and resuming.

And she's not alone.

Fred Krueger says book it. Pentoshi says the lows are in. Bitwise's flow model says Bitcoin is 30% below fair value. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio now says the rotation that punished Bitcoin all year is exhausting.

Gold had its run. The ratio is turning back. 🪙

Today we’ll be taking a look the overall stablecoin supply.

Stablecoins are the backbone of crypto liquidity, used for seamless trading and instant cross-border transactions.

The chart below tracks the aggregate change in the total stablecoin market cap.

$262.58 billion in stablecoins now sit on-chain. (Two weeks ago: $265.48 billion)

Down $2.90 billion in a fortnight - and the drain just sped back up.

Two weeks ago the contraction had eased to $1.43 billion, and we wondered if the bleed was exhausting. This print answers that: it re-accelerated to nearly $2.9 billion, the steepest drop of the run. So much for the slowdown.

That's four straight down fortnights now - roughly $10 billion peeled off the highs. On the year, supply sits below where 2026 began, and the cushion that built through spring is long gone.

Perspective still applies: $262.58 billion is an enormous pool of on-chain capital, and one quarter's drawdown doesn't undo it. But the direction is clear, and this fortnight it got sharper, not softer.

Dry powder is leaving the system, not stacking up. Until these prints stabilise, there's less sidelined capital waiting to chase any bounce. 🔥

US Government Moves $288M in Seized Crypto to Coinbase Prime. Arkham-tracked transfers revived questions about how closely Washington will stick to no-sell reserve rhetoric.

Japan’s biggest card network taps Circle to bring stablecoins to 40 million merchants. JCB and Circle are exploring USDC for merchant and cross-border payments.

Velocity raises $38M to build stablecoin treasury infrastructure for enterprises. Corporate stablecoin cash-management rails are turning into a real buildout category.

Ethereum Foundation privacy team spins out as for-profit EthSystems to serve institutions with Lubin, Bitmine backing. Ethereum privacy tooling is being recast as a bank-facing institutional product.

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