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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #426 shufflin’ in… 🦣 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more riveting than a time-travel adventure in a DeLorean... 🚗⏳

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🤑 New killer app for crypto

• 🏗️ Bitcoin is built different

• 💪 HODLer dynamics

• 💰 And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

NEW KILLER APP FOR CRYPTO? 🤑

BREAKING: US election attracts $776.8 million wagered on prediction markets

Everyone is always asking: what is crypto’s “killer app”? 🤔

What is the app that can/will take crypto into the mainstream?

Right now there’s a good argument for stablecoins.

But now, there’s a new “killer app” on the rise…

And that’s crypto based prediction markets.

Prediction markets have been around for years. But crypto takes them to the next level by making them borderless and permissionless.

With prediction markets you can bet on anything:

• Super Bowl Champion 2025

• Fed Interests Rates: September 2024

• How many times will Elon Musk tweet this week?

There’s basically a market for everything…

But one market has overwhelmingly taken over.

And that’s the US presidential election:

As of today, over $776.8 million has been wagered on the US election. (just on Polymarket)

And as it stands, Polymarket shows Trump with a slight lead over Harris.

Polymarket is currently the most popular crypto prediction market. And we’ve got some absurd charts to show it’s growth this year.

First up is monthly volume. 

Polymarket saw over $470 million in monthly volume during August.

Total NFT volume on all chains was $378 million in August…

Polymarket has also seen rapid growth in the amount of monthly active users.

For August, this metric was at ~64,000 monthly active users. 📈 

But as we mentioned earlier, the US election has dominated this platform…

In August, election markets accounted for 76.4% of weekly volume.

So are prediction markets just a passing fad?

Will their volumes plummet after the US election?

Only time will tell…

But they’ve certainly got a strong case for being cryptos next “killer app”.

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BITCOIN IS BUILT DIFFERENT 🏗️

When it comes to the best performing assets of all time, there’s one that stands above the rest.

One asset to rule them all… 💍

That asset is Bitcoin.

Over the weekend, Italian astrophysicist Giovanni Santostassi did a podcast with Robert Breedlove.

Giovanni discovered the Bitcoin Power Law model - a pricing model that predicts the price of Bitcoin as if it were bound by the laws of physics.

In 2019, Giovanni discovered that if you plot Bitcoin’s price & time in log scale, you see a very clear relationship.

What’s even more impressive is that Bitcoin’s price has continued to follow his 2019 model, over the past 5 years:

• 🔵 Blue line: Original 2019 model

• 🔴 Red line: Bitcoin price since 2019

That’s pretty nuts, but it begs the question:

Do any other top performing assets follow a power law?

Giovanni then plotted Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft and Google in that same format:

As you can see, it’s not even close.

Finally, Giovanni showcased another model he’s working on.

He is trying to roughly model the tops & bottoms of Bitcoin:

Although still a work in progress, Giovanni believes it’s useful.

It predicts we will see Bitcoin top out in this cycle at $210,000 - $250,000 in November of 2025.

With the Bitcoin price following the Power Law Model for the past 5 years, it’s a pretty compelling case.

14 months to lock-in. 🔒 👀

HODLER DYNAMICS 💪

Today we’ll be taking a look at the Long / Short-Term Holder Threshold.

Here’s how this metric works:

• 🔴 Short-Term Holders (STHs): coins that have been held for less than 155 days

• 🔵 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): coins that have been held for more than 155 days

• 🟥 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are STHs

• 🟦 Long-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are LTHs

This metric is extremely powerful as we can see exactly what price STHs and LTHs purchased Bitcoin at. 🔎

The LTH / STH threshold is currently at 30th March 2024, back when Bitcoin was ~$69,700.

All coins purchased before this date are classified as LTHs.

All coins purchased after this date are classified as STHs.

Today there is currently 14,067,229 Bitcoin in the hands of LTHs.  (71.23% of the circulating supply) 💪

Whereas the amount of coins held by STHs is only 2,697,398. (13.66% of the circulating supply)

Recently we’ve been seeing the amount of short-term holders sharply decrease.

And as a result, the amount of long-term holders has risen quickly.

This is likely in response to weak price action.

Short-term holders are now holding their coins for longer and longer, eventually transitioning into long-term holder status.

Everyone’s just holding out for higher prices now…

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance helps secure 12-point lead over Harris, FDU poll finds. Former President Donald Trump's crypto endorsement boosts his 2024 campaign, leads poll over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Bitcoin loses 8.6% in August as September starts with fresh 2-week low. Bitcoin trader sees liquidity grabs continuing as BTC price weakness characterizes the monthly close.

Pump.fun surpasses $100 million in revenue as Polymarket outshines NFTs in August. Crypto users love to speculate, whether on real-world happenings or simply the volatile movements of memecoins.

Bitcoin ETFs log monthly loss, Ethereum ETFs are ignored after outflow streak. Ethereum exchange-traded funds continue to wobble as spot bitcoin ETFs log a red candle for the month of August.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

• Bullseye Trades (link) - Daily stock market tips

• Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A) Litecoin 🥳

Litecoin emerged in 2011 as a complement to Bitcoin, quickly earning the nickname “the silver to Bitcoin's gold”

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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.