GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #918 loadin‘ on up… 🛒🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more mission-ready than a bounty hunter reading the cantina before the blasters clear leather… 🪐⚙️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Crypto Shorts Get Rekt as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Rise to Weekly High Prices

After weeks of "crypto misses every rally," the script finally flipped.

Bitcoin punched above $62,000 on Thursday, a new July high and its firmest footing in over a week.

And for once, it didn't need permission from stocks.

Cast your mind back to Wednesday. Bitcoin was scraping a 21-month low near $57,800, the ugly floor of a brutal first half.

Then two things broke the right way.

First, the Fed blinked. New chair Kevin Warsh, the man whose hawkish June set off weeks of pain, told a forum in Portugal that inflation risks had eased. The Fed’s first softer note in months.

Then the jobs data landed weak. Just 57,000 new jobs in June against 110,000 expected, with prior months revised down too.

A cooling labour market drags the Fed back toward cuts, and the odds of a near-term hike tumbled.

Suddenly the vice that's squeezed crypto all quarter, hawkish Fed, strong dollar, loosened.

And the shorts got caught leaning the wrong way. Around $450M of short positions were liquidated as the move ripped higher, their forced buying pouring fuel on the bounce. (Short liquidations are just bearish bets getting force-closed, which means buying, which lifts price further.)

Beneath the selloff, long-term holders never flinched.

Glassnode says they've quietly flipped back to accumulating, joined by wallets holding 100 to 1,000 coins. Exchange reserves sit at a seven-year low. The patient money was buying the whole way down.

But temper the excitement…

More Bitcoin is now held at a loss than in profit, the first time this drawdown. One analyst still sees this as a July relief rally before the bears return in August.

So is the bottom in?

The macro finally leaned crypto's way, the shorts paid for it, and the strong hands never left.

That's the strongest setup bulls have had all quarter.

Now they have to prove it above $65K. 🚀

The biggest IPO in history is live — $1.75T valuation, $135 open, $75B raised. And history says the retail investors who chase day-one hype are the ones who get burned.

The SpaceX run created thousands of new millionaires. But it wasn't the people buying at the open. It was the ones positioned early, in the names set to ride the wave.

Our analyst pinpointed 3 stocks positioned to ride the SpaceX wave — with entry guidance and price targets, a bonus 4th pick (the most undervalued name in the sector), and a 3-phase playbook for when to buy and when to sell.

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When a sitting U.S. cabinet member talks up Bitcoin, it's a signal worth noting. Howard Lutnick just did exactly that on The Pomp Podcast.

Lutnick is the 41st U.S. Secretary of Commerce and the former Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, the 160-year-old Wall Street firm he ran for four decades before entering government.

Cantor, now led by his family, has become one of the most aggressive Bitcoin players in traditional finance.

His personal conviction is clear.

But the bigger story is the vision he laid out for how Bitcoin enters the financial system. The plan: become the sponsor of Bitcoin into traditional finance.

Bitcoin-backed lending. Structured products. The full institutional rails. And his prediction for what follows.

His sharpest insight was strategic. Bitcoiners should call it a commodity, never a currency.

Why? Because a currency attacks the politicians, trying to replace their money. But a commodity, just oil, just gold, gets left alone. And like gold and oil, it becomes financeable and woven into the entire system.

Rare asset. Wall Street giant building the rails. Every other bank about to copy.

The institutions aren't coming. They're already here. 🏛️

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

2.706 million BTC on exchanges. Down slightly from 2.71 million two weeks ago.

A small downtick - and after a stretch of holding flat, the drain looks like it's quietly resuming.

It's only about 4,000 BTC, so let's not overstate it. But the direction matters: for the last several editions Bitcoin's balances chopped sideways between 2.68 and 2.71 million, mostly holding firm. This fortnight they eased back off the top of that range instead of holding it.

Here's the shift from last edition. ETH was the asset with the relentless squeeze while Bitcoin sat flat. This fortnight they've swapped - ETH's drain paused, while Bitcoin's ticked back down. Both are now hovering near the lower end of their recent ranges, neither doing much in either direction.

Balances remain modestly below where the year began, and a 4,000 BTC move is noise in the context of months of withdrawals. The supply is still tight.

But a Bitcoin balance that's started easing again - after weeks of flatlining - is worth a flag. The next print tells us whether this is the drain picking back up… or just chop inside the range. 💪

Russia Is Ready for ‘Widespread Use’ of Digital Ruble by September, Says Bank Governor. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said major banks and retailers are on track to begin accepting the digital ruble by September 1.

Solana launches onchain governance and sets entry fee at 100,000 SOL staked. Validators and stakers can now formally signal protocol direction through Solana Governance Proposals, with a high staking threshold for opening proposals.

Standard Chartered, Circle bring USDC minting onto banking rails. Standard Chartered and Circle launched bank-led USDC minting and redemption for institutions, starting in Dubai’s DIFC with planned global expansion.

CFTC’s Selig says Illinois lawmakers ‘decided they know better’ on crypto tax. CFTC Chair Michael Selig criticized Illinois’ new 0.2% crypto transaction tax, keeping the state-level policy fight alive.

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Trivia Answer: Know Your Customer 🥳

KYC is the identity-checking process used by many exchanges, banks, and financial platforms. It usually involves collecting user information so the business can meet compliance rules.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.