GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #921 wingin‘ it… 🪽🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more consequence-aware than a physicist checking the chalkboard before the desert gets a second sunrise… 🧮🌅

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: U.S. SEC to propose crypto rule as soon as this month to ease startups, fundraising

Washington might be about to hand crypto the clarity it's begged for since forever.

The SEC just flagged that "Regulation Crypto," its first big crypto rule under chair Paul Atkins, could drop as soon as this month. (The SEC is the agency that decides what counts as a security, the label that's haunted crypto for years.)

Here's what it actually does.

Reg Crypto carves out exemptions and safe harbours, meaning certain crypto activity, like DeFi and tokenized securities, wouldn't automatically trip a securities violation.

Startups worth under $5M get room to experiment.

Founders could raise up to $75M through crypto investment contracts without the usual registration nightmare.

And once a token's creators step back from running the thing, it stops being treated as a security.

In plain terms: build in the US without a lawyer breathing down your neck.

Remember what it was like a few years ago?

Under Gary Gensler, the SEC's crypto policy was basically enforcement.

Sue first, define the rules never.

Atkins has flipped that on its head, and Trump still wants the US to be "the crypto capital of the world." A formal rule is stickier than guidance too. It can't just be torn up when the next chair walks in.

But hold the celebration…

This is a proposal, not law.

It faces a public comment period, White House review, and Atkins has cried "coming weeks" before.

Back in March he said this exact rule was weeks away. It's now July.

There's a political clock, too.

Congress's bigger Clarity Act has a do-or-die stretch in the Senate, and if it doesn't pass by August, the midterms likely bury it for the year.

And critics, mostly Democrats, are calling the whole Trump-era softening a "pay-to-play" giveaway to firms that had their cases dropped.

Meanwhile the price isn't listening to any of it.

Bitcoin slipped under $63K after the US and Iran traded fresh airstrikes, oil jumped, and the ceasefire everyone priced in weeks ago is suddenly back on the brink. (the cycle continues…)

So the regulatory door is finally creaking open.

Just as the macro slams a different one shut. 🚀

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Fred Krueger just ran the 2026 bear against the 2022 bear, day by day. And the difference he found tells you everything about where we are.

Krueger is a Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader, and author of "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat." This is exactly the kind of analysis he was built for.

Here's what he posted:

Look at the chart. The two bears tracked remarkably similar paths for the first 120 days. Then everything changed:

Around day 170, they briefly converged, then split. The 2022 bear cascaded lower, all the way to a 76.6% drawdown. The 2026 bear has spent the last three months grinding sideways around 50%.

And the key insight isn't just that this cycle is "less bad."

That's the structural shift. In 2022, panic fed on itself for weeks. In 2026, every capitulation attempt gets absorbed almost immediately. The ETFs, the treasuries, the institutions - the wall of patient capital sits right underneath the market.

And here's the context that makes the comparison even more lopsided:

The 2022 bear had the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in modern history pushing it down. Hike after hike after hike. This time? The next move is cuts.

Same drawdown chart. Opposite monetary backdrop. Buyers stepping in faster every dip.

The 2022 bear had gravity working against it. This one has a floor being built underneath it. 🛡️

Today we're looking at BTC Risk - a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.301 (two weeks ago: 0.301)

Dead flat - for the second reading running.

After tumbling from 0.392 down to 0.300 earlier, BTC Risk has now gone nowhere two prints in a row. The bleed is done. The metric is simply basing at the floor of this entire run.

And that floor sits in friendly territory. At ~0.30 we're deep below the 0.5 midpoint - the discount zone that's historically rewarded patient buyers rather than burned them.

Low readings here aren't the warning sign. They're the opposite. The metric is parked at its cheapest level of the run, and it's holding. 📊

Radar Chat Wants to Make Sending Bitcoin as Easy as Firing Off a Text. Built on Signal’s open-source technology, Radar Chat combines encrypted messaging with self-custodial Bitcoin payments via Lightning Network.

SpaceX IPO powers record $3.86 billion in tokenized equities trading in June. SpaceX tokens captured $1.19B, or 31%, of June tokenized-equities volume.

Vanguard seeks digital assets chief after years of crypto skepticism. The asset manager is hiring a digital-assets lead for tokenization, stablecoins, blockchain strategy, regulators, and market standards.

Jack Mallers’ Strike launches ‘volatility-proof’ bitcoin loans built to protect against liquidation. Strike says the loan product avoids forced liquidation regardless of BTC price if borrowers keep making payments.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: The difference between the expected trade price and the price actually received. 🥳

Slippage happens when the market moves or there is not enough liquidity at the quoted price. It matters most on larger trades, volatile assets, and thinner trading pairs.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.