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BREAKING: Bitcoin nears 11-week low after ‘discouraging’ US CPI inflation beat

Bitcoin first hit $69,000 five years ago this week, and on Tuesday an analyst named that level as where it could be heading next.

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% economists expected, and core inflation (which strips out food and energy) climbed 0.3% against forecasts of 0.2%.

Bitcoin broke under $73,000 to its lowest level since August, and Ether lost about 3% to around $2,050.

Last Thursday's stock rout had pulled the odds of a December rate hike below 70%.

After Tuesday's report a hike looks close to certain, and traders now give a half-point hike roughly 12% to 15% odds.

Hours before the release, Fed governor Chris Waller said in London that another 0.3% core reading could justify going that big, and October hit that number exactly.

Hiking by only a quarter-point in that case "would put our credibility at risk," he said.

Yields on 2-year Treasuries, which track Fed expectations most closely, jumped about 20 basis points, their biggest rise in more than a year and a half, and the 10-year briefly topped 5%.

When bonds and cash pay that much, holding an asset that pays nothing, like Bitcoin, costs more.

Bitget's Lewis Huang sees the 200-day moving average near $73,200 as the support to watch, while 21Shares' Matt Mena says a sustained break below $73,000 could send Bitcoin toward $69,000, close to its 2021 peak.

Headline inflation did cool from September's 0.6% as the jump in energy prices faded…

Economist Robin Brooks called the report discouraging but noted October was the peak of this year's second oil shock, and Lekker Capital's Quinn Thompson thinks Waller got tougher just as inflation is peaking.

The Fed decides on December 9, and November's inflation report doesn't come out until the 10th.

October's hot print is the last CPI number it'll see before the vote. 🚀

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Fred Krueger thinks Bitcoin can nearly triple by the end of 2027, and he's listed the four things that have to go right for it to happen.

The Stanford PhD mathematician and former Wall Street prop trader wrote "Bitcoin One Million: The Final Chapter of Fiat."

Here's what he posted on Tuesday:

(The power law is a model that ties Bitcoin's price to how long it's existed, and on a log-log chart its long-run trend runs close to a straight line.)

Bitcoin was trading near $74,400 when he posted, so just under 3x lands somewhere north of $200,000.

That was about three and a half hours before Tuesday's inflation report, which made his first condition harder to meet.

October prices came in hot, and traders now see a December rate hike as close to certain, the opposite of the pivot he's counting on.

The next two items don't need the Fed's help…

Bitcoin lending going mainstream would let holders borrow against their coins instead of selling them, which keeps supply off the market.

And if AI gets stuck waiting on power and permits, some of the money pouring into data centres would need somewhere else to sit.

Our BTC Risk gauge further down still has Bitcoin in the cheaper half of its historical range, so the starting point for his maths isn't stretched.

Krueger's line points past $200,000 by 2027, and it can't tell anyone when the Fed will turn. 📏

Today we're looking at BTC Risk, a simple way to gauge where we are in the cycle.

BTC Risk compresses years of price action into a number between 0 and 1:

It doesn't call exact tops or bottoms. It shows you when risk-reward is tilted in your favour.

Current BTC Risk: 0.476 (two weeks ago: 0.485)

The gauge fell another 0.009 this fortnight, the same size step as last time, and its second fall in a row.

Those two falls add up to 0.018, still under a tenth of the 0.194 it gained climbing from 0.300.

It now sits 0.024 below the 0.5 midpoint, wider than the 0.015 gap two weeks ago.

The gauge is drifting slowly away from the middle, and it's still in the cheaper half of its range. ⚖️

An 11-year-old Ethereum wallet moved $4.6 million and dodged a scam set up in minutes. Scammers sent lookalike dust payments within three minutes of a test transfer, but the 2,154.94 ETH still reached the correct address.

Binance Warns of Apple iOS Flaw That Could Expose iPhone Users' Private Keys. The bug affects iOS 26.7.1, 27.0.1 and 27.2, and Apple hasn't confirmed whether Monday's iOS 27.2.1 update fixes it.

Polymarket US trading volume jumps 266% despite regulatory battles. Volume on its US exchange rose from $4.04 billion in June to $14.77 billion in October, with annualized revenue above $1.8 billion.

eToro’s Q3 profit plunges 74% as weaker crypto trading weighs on earnings. Net income fell to $15 million from $57 million, and crypto trades on the platform dropped 62% year over year in October.

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Trivia Answer: Signatures from any two of its three keys 🥳

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