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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #855 shinin' the spotlight… 🔦🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more high-wire than a bank job planned by a guy who's already inside the vault… 🏦🕶️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin profit taking keeps BTC below $70K as Trump doubles down on Iran

Bitcoin keeps knocking on $70,000.

And the market keeps saying no…

BTC pushed to $70,275 on Monday, a new April high. Then it faded right back below $70K.

This has been the pattern since February.

Every time Bitcoin approaches the $70,000 to $80,000 band, the same thing happens. Sellers show up and take profit.

Glassnode flagged the exact moment.

As price touched $70K, realised profit per hour spiked above $20 million. That's the level where bounces have stalled repeatedly this year. Thin liquidity above, profit-taking pressure below. The ceiling holds.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,700, down slightly on the day. Stocks are wobbly too, with traders watching the Iran situation closely.

Trump reiterated on Monday that Iran would "have no bridges" and "no power plants" without a deal, with a Tuesday 8pm ET deadline now on the table.

Any resolution could be the catalyst crypto has been waiting for.

Oil has been the dominant weight on risk assets for weeks, and a ceasefire would change the equation fast.

Trader Van de Poppe sees $71,000 as the key level.

A clean break above that, he says, opens the door to a test of $80,000. He also noted that on-chain indicators are sitting at levels last seen at the bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022. (More on this in today’s on-chain section)

Meanwhile, altcoins are quietly holding up.

Grayscale pointed out that crypto actually outperformed equities in March, with the Grayscale Crypto Sectors Index gaining 4% while the S&P 500 fell 5%.

ETH is up 9% over the past month. A basket of altcoins is trading near the low end of its three-year range.

The pieces are there. Oversold indicators. Resilient altcoins. A potential geopolitical trigger hours away.

But until $70K breaks convincingly, the ceiling stays. 🚀

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Cathie Wood just declared a new era for Bitcoin. And the reasoning is hard to argue with.

Wood is the founder and CEO of ARK Invest, one of the most influential investment firms in the world, with a $1.5 million Bitcoin price target for 2030.

And in her latest interview with CNBC, she made a statement that should reframe how every investor thinks about this drawdown:

Read that again.

The woman who has studied disruptive technologies for decades is telling you the existential drawdowns are behind us. The era of Bitcoin dropping 85-95% is finished.

Why? Because of one word: institutionalisation.

Wood explained that what we're witnessing right now is the institutionalisation of an entirely new asset class.

One that has a very low correlation with everything else in a traditional portfolio. That's not a speculative thesis anymore. It's a structural reality backed by ETFs, sovereign wealth funds, corporate treasuries, and pension allocations.

When Bitcoin was an experiment, 85% crashes were the price of admission. Nobody institutional was there to catch the falling knife.

Retail panicked. Miners capitulated. The whole thing reset from scratch every 4 years.

That world is gone.

Now, when Bitcoin drops 50%, there are billions of dollars in ETF flows, corporate buyers, and sovereign allocators waiting on the sidelines.

Institutions and retail operate on different cycles. When one group sells, the other buys.

That's why the floor is higher. That's why the drawdowns are shallower.

A 50% crash used to be the beginning of the pain. Now it might be the worst of it.

Proven technology. Proven monetary system. New asset class.

The training wheels are off. 🏛️

Today we're looking at a metric from Glassnode - Total Supply in Loss.

This one simply counts the total volume of circulating Bitcoin that was last moved at a price above the current spot level.

Think of it as how much BTC is currently underwater.

It's a useful gauge of market-wide pain.

The higher the number, the more holders are sitting on unrealized losses and the heavier the overhead supply weighing on any recovery attempt.

Right now, Total Supply in Loss sits at approximately 8.4 million BTC.

Roughly 8-9 million coins have been underwater on a sustained basis over the past month.

For context, this mirrors the structure we saw in Q2 2022 - the last time this metric sat at comparable levels.

Back then, around 3 million BTC needed to change hands before the market could reclaim its cycle midpoint.

Translation: there's a wall of supply sitting above current prices that needs to be absorbed before any sustained move higher. That redistribution is happening - long-term holder realized losses are elevated, confirming active capitulation - but it's not finished yet.

The good news?

This is how bottoms are built. Not with a single flush, but with a slow, grinding transfer of coins from those who can't hold any longer to those willing to buy at a discount.

Painful process. Necessary one. 📊

Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) purchased $330 million of bitcoin last week. Last week's purchases were mostly funded via sales of the company's STRC preferred stock.

SEC crypto safe harbor heads to White House review, proposal due 'shortly' says Atkins. A proposed safe harbor framework to allow crypto projects to launch without needing to register right away is now in the White House's hands.

JPMorgan CEO Flags Blockchain Rivals as Kinexys Scales. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of blockchain-based competitors as the bank expands Kinexys and doubles down on AI-driven financial infrastructure.

Polymarket to Launch Stablecoin, Order Book Overhaul in Prediction Market Upgrade. Polymarket is overhauling its technical foundations and launching a stablecoin as it aims to improve the user experience and order book.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A protocol mechanism that recalibrates mining difficulty roughly every two weeks to maintain a consistent block time 🥳

Every 2,016 blocks, the protocol adjusts how hard it is to mine a block so that the average time stays close to 10 minutes, regardless of how much hash power is on the network. It's one of Bitcoin's most elegant design features.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.