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- 🥜 Crypto Bull Run has begun. Here's proof:
🥜 Crypto Bull Run has begun. Here's proof:
PLUS: Crypto Summer nearly here ☀️
GM to all 13,917 of you. Crypto Nutshell zoomin’ in. 🏃♀️🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's more exciting than a journey to find a lost city of gold... 🗺️🏴☠️
Today, we’ll be going over:
💪 Bitcoin ETF = Inevitable
☀️ Crypto summer is nearly here
🤔 Why the bull run is starting
🤑 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 12:00am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
BITCOIN ETF = INEVITABLE 💪
BREAKING: ARK’s Cathie Wood: “Odds are going up” for spot Bitcoin ETF approval
The SEC is still yet to approve a growing list of 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications. Last month the majority of these applications were delayed once again.
The SEC has now until January 2024 to make it’s next decision.
Here’s what some notable figures in the space have to say:
On October 5th, Cathie Wood stated:
“We are partnering with [21Shares] in the US, hoping to launch a bitcoin ETF, if it’s ever approved by the SEC. We think the odds are going up that it will be approved,”
Eric Balchunas mentioned that the SEC is actively engaging with issuers. These discussions are centred around creation redemption, custody and legal aspects. The aim is to fine-tune the current filings. 👀
This is presumably a good thing for ETF approvals. It’s also worth mentioning that they can be approved at any time. Balchunas is still sticking by his 75% chance that they get approved by the end of this year… 🐂
Here's latest table, altho I think all delayed now, I'm on road so can't update, but here's the need-to-know: 1) 10/13 is deadline for SEC to appeal Grayscale ruling 2) all spot filings basically delayed till Jan 3) SEC is actively engaging w issuers to fine-tune their filings
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas)
12:55 PM • Oct 4, 2023
Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton recently explained why he believes a spot Bitcoin ETF is “inevitable”.
“We’ve decided every legal question around Bitcoin that is relevant. So, as I’ve said before, that would make you think a Bitcoin spot ETF is inevitable… There are a lot of people who do surveillance and the like who are confident that the Bitcoin spot market has much greater efficacy than it did three or four years.”
Wether it’s tomorrow, or it comes right down to the final deadlines in March, they’re coming…
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CRYPTO SUMMER IS NEARLY HERE ☀️
Raoul Pal is a macro-economic expert.
He first bought Bitcoin back in 2013. He also published the first ever macro valuation model for BTC.
Using that model, Raoul had an original Bitcoin price target of $1.3 million. 🤯
Yesterday, Raoul made another prediction. Crypto Summer is just around the corner. 🌞
“I'm very optimistic. I think we're in Crypto Spring and we'll transition to Crypto Summer maybe Q1 of next year.”
What is Crypto Spring / Summer? Here’s Raoul’s explanation:
Crypto Spring: Comes after Crypto Winter. (duh) Some days it can snow, then it can rain. Sometimes it’s sunny. It’s an unpredictable time, but over Spring, the temperature (price) trends up.
Crypto Summer: Hype returns to the crypto market. Prices start to go parabolic. This period is characterised by your weird aunts & uncles asking you: “What exactly is that Bitcoin thingamabob?” 🤨
Not long to go.
Raoul made another interesting prediction: Solana will be the horse to back in the next cycle. 🏇
“Solana, I think, is going to be the big story of this cycle.”
Why? Solana is launching an upgrade called ‘Firedancer’ 🔥💃
This upgrade is going to allow Solana to process ~600,000 to 1,200,000 transactions per second.
“This is a different order of magnitude. This is 10x the fastest thing we've ever seen and it's not a layer 2. It’s just Solana. So this is a game changer.”
With these current standings YTD…
Bitcoin: +81%
Ethereum: +47%
Solana: +140%
…Solana will definitely be one to watch. 👀
WHY THE BULL RUN HAS BEGUN 🤔
The short-term holders are returning…
Today we’ll be diving into our favourite on-chain metric. The Realized Cap HODL Waves. They are super useful for picking out market tops and bottoms.
We'll be taking a look at the percentage of short-term holders (STH) in the market. Specifically coins held for less than 6 months.
This metric uses the HODL Waves data, which groups the BTC supply by when each coin last moved. It is then weighted by the realized price (the price at which it last moved). 🤓
We know that this sounds complicated. But all you need to know is this:
Peaks in this metric mean that the market is willing to pay higher values for Bitcoin today versus historical norms. A clear sign that the market is overheating. In the past, peaks in this metric have lined up exactly with peaks in price.
Taking a look at where we are today, coins last moved less than 6 months ago are on the rise. Historically this signals the start of Bitcoin’s bull run. 🐂
Usually we’ll see a trend of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among investors and a rapid increase in interest and on-chain activity.
You can clearly see when the market is peaking by how many short term holders there are (large red spikes). And we're no where near that level yet...
If you’re wondering why the peaks get smaller & smaller each bull run... that’s because each bull run picks up more and more long-term holders.
Right now it looks like we’re in the very early stages of a bull market. You’d have to be insane to sell now…
Bottom line: The bull market is here. Get ready for lift-off 🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Which blockchain consensus mechanism does Bitcoin use?
A) Proof of Stake
B) Proof of Work
C) Proof of Steak
D) Proof of Capacity
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) Proof of Work 🥳
Bitcoin uses the Proof of Work blockchain consensus mechanism. To learn more click here.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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