GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #853 flippin' the front page… 🗞️🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more loaded than a standoff where three guys with guns all know someone's not leaving… 🤠🔫

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Oil shock, Iran war risk keep crypto investors on sidelines says Grayscale

Bitcoin slipped below $67,000 overnight after Trump vowed to hit Iran "extremely hard" in the coming weeks.

Oil briefly spiked to $115 a barrel before easing on reports that Iran is working with Oman to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

According to Grayscale, crypto markets are stuck in a holding pattern...

The Iran war, rising oil prices, and fading rate-cut expectations have kept investors cautious.

But if you take a closer look at the structure underneath, it looks nothing like a breakdown.

Stablecoin supply has grown to $315 billion. That's up roughly $100 billion in the last year alone.

Futures positioning is picking up. And spot crypto products are still seeing inflows.

That's dry powder sitting on the sidelines.

Grayscale's research team said periods like this have historically been attractive entry points for long-term investors.

And crypto has held up better than expected, roughly flat since the war started and outperforming equities at times.

But the short-term risks are still real.

Options data from Glassnode shows a "negative gamma" zone has built up below $68,000.

In simple terms, that means the firms providing liquidity are forced to sell more Bitcoin as prices fall, which pushes prices even lower.

If that feedback loop kicks in, Glassnode sees a potential revisit of $60,000.

Easter makes it worse.

Trading volume historically drops over the holiday period, meaning thinner liquidity and bigger swings on smaller moves.

So the picture is split.

Short term, the market is fragile. Oil is driving sentiment, positioning is defensive, and a break lower could accelerate fast.

Longer term, the capital is still there. Stablecoins are at record highs. Adoption trends haven't reversed. And investors aren't fleeing, they're waiting.

The trigger for the next move isn't crypto. It's clarity on the war. 🚀

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Tom Lee just put a deadline on the pain. And it's already passed.

In his latest interview with Decrypt, Lee was asked directly: how much longer are we stuck in crypto winter?

His answer? It's either already over, or April is the absolute latest.

That's not a vague "sometime this year" call. That's a line in the sand.

From the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, one of Wall Street's most respected independent research firms.

But it's what he said next that should have everyone paying attention.

The last 2 summers in crypto have been brutal. Sell-offs. Drawdowns. The seasonal pattern that has conditioned everyone to expect pain between May and September.

Lee doesn't think that's happening this time:

If he's right, this changes the entire playbook. No more "sell in May and go away." No more waiting for a Q4 bottom.

The cycle is shifting, and the typical seasonal weakness that most traders are positioning for simply doesn't arrive.

Think about what that means for all the fund managers sitting in 60%+ cash, waiting for one more leg lower.

Think about the retail investors who sold and are waiting for cheaper prices that never come.

Winter ending. Spring arriving. And a summer that doesn't sell off.

That's not just a recovery. That's the start of the next leg up. 🚀

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of wallets that hold at least some Bitcoin. (anything greater than 0)

This metric offers a bird’s-eye view of user activity and adoption across the Bitcoin network.

But there’s a slight catch…

One wallet does not equal one user. A user can have many wallets.

What matters here is the trend of the chart.

Here's a number the market keeps ignoring…

58,633,146 wallets now hold at least some Bitcoin. In the last two weeks, 155,869 joined them.

That's roughly 11,000 new holders every single day - while fear dominates, prices bleed, and sentiment sits in the gutter.

Nobody's buying because the chart looks good right now. They're buying because the thesis hasn't changed.

And that distinction matters. Bull market buyers chase momentum. Bear market buyers build foundations. The people entering now aren't here for a quick flip - they're positioning while the crowd looks away.

Cycle after cycle, the pattern repeats. The holder base never contracts. It just keeps compounding through every drawdown, every panic, every "crypto is dead" headline.

The network is growing whether the market likes it or not. 💪

Coinbase CLO: Clarity Act Deal on Stablecoin Yield 'Very Close'. The crypto exchange's top lawyer dismissed banking industry concerns about deposit flight as lawmakers work to finalize stablecoin provisions.

Stablecoins Dominate Crypto Trading as Retail Activity Drops. Stablecoin supply reached $315 billion in Q1 as USDC grew and USDT declined, with trading dominance rising and bot-driven activity signaling shifting market dynamics.

Bitcoin price news: BTC climbs off of worst levels on Strait of Hormuz hopes. In the middle of a surge higher following President Trump's overnight comments, the price of WTI crude oil quickly fell nearly $6 per barrel on the news.

Bittensor breakout fuels AI token rally as distributed training gains credibility. The price of TAO nearly doubled in March, as the market is catching up to a realization of what the Bittensor network can do.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Global market panic as COVID-19 lockdowns began 🥳

On March 12, 2020 (known as "Black Thursday"), Bitcoin plunged from around $8,000 to below $4,000 as every asset class sold off in a global liquidity crisis. It recovered to pre-crash levels within two months.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.