GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #739 cuttin’ through noise… 🪓🥜

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: US Treasury chief Bessent says 'substantial' trade framework with China reached

The market just got the green light it was waiting for.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Sunday that the US and China have reached a “substantial” trade framework, effectively ending fears of the 100% tariff shock President Trump announced earlier this month:

The result?

Markets could finally breathe.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has climbed 3.0%, Ether jumped 5.9%, and Solana rose 5.6% - a meaningful reversal after weeks of fear-driven selling.

Why It Matters

For crypto, this isn’t just a trade headline - it’s the macro unlock we’ve been waiting for.

The last time tariffs dominated the news cycle, Bitcoin plunged from $126K to $105K in a 24-hour liquidation frenzy.

The removal of that threat clears the path for liquidity to flow again - exactly what Bitcoin needs heading into year-end.

As Bitwise’s Jeff Park put it, “The positive trade deal news will send BTC and gold to new all-time highs.”

And Anthony Pompliano didn’t hold back either:

The Bottom Line

Trade war fears pulled the market down. De-escalation just pulled the pin.

With tariffs off the table and the Fed set to cut in 2 days, the setup for “Uptober 2.0” is officially live. 🚀

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If you’re out of the market right now, you’re delusional. 😵‍💫

That’s not us saying it - that’s Jesse Eckel, one of the most followed macro-crypto investors on X.

Jesse’s building an eight-figure portfolio by calling major market turns early - from buying the 2022 bottom to predicting this year’s run before it began.

He’s known for doing the math when everyone else panics… and for saying what most people are too afraid to say.

And today, he fired off one of his boldest takes yet:

After 3 months of the worst the market could throw at us - a record $9B liquidation, a shutdown, and weak liquidity - Bitcoin’s still above $110K.

That’s not weakness. That’s unbreakable strength.

Here’s the catalysts Jesse sees next:

Jesse’s view: this is the setup for crypto’s first real 5-year cycle.

If the last 3 months were the “bad” part of the bull market…

Just imagine what happens as liquidity floods back in. 👀

Time for a check-in on the Long/Short-Term Holder Threshold.

Here’s how this metric works:

This metric is powerful because it shows exactly what price range long and short term holders bought their Bitcoin at. 🔍

The new key cutoff date is May 25, 2025 - when Bitcoin was trading at around $110K.

Anything bought before that? Long-term (LTH).
After? Short-term (STH).

Here’s the breakdown:

Over the past three months, long-term holders have unloaded a net 131,524 BTC - one of the main reasons Bitcoin has traded sideways during that stretch.

But let’s zoom out.

More than 70% of all Bitcoin is still locked away in long-term hands.

That’s not weakness. That’s conviction.

The base is solid. The supply is tight.

And when conviction meets scarcity... price doesn’t wander.

It erupts. 💥

How JPMorgan’s Bitcoin collateral plan could unlock $20 billion in liquidity. JPMorgan’s crypto collateral initiative is poised to unlock $20 billion in lending capacity for institutional clients.

ISM Manufacturing PMI suggests Bitcoin cycle may extend beyond historical norm. Analysts see ISM manufacturing trends aligning with Bitcoin peaks, suggesting the next BTC cycle may run longer as the US industry remains in contraction.

Bitcoin illiquid supply declines as 62,000 BTC moves out of long-term holder wallets. A recent estimate from Fidelity found that as much of 42% of Bitcoin's supply could be considered illiquid by 2032, if current trends hold.

Tom Lee’s Year-End Playbook for Crypto and U.S. Stocks — Signals He’s Watching. Tom Lee explains why he expects the S&P 500 to keep climbing into year-end and why he sees crypto rebounding despite October failing to live up to expectations.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

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Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: 2008 🥳

Satoshi released the Bitcoin whitepaper on October 31, 2008 — the beginning of decentralized finance. 📜

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.